(144898) 2004 VD17

(144898) 2004 VD17, provisional designation 2004 VD17, is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group once thought to have a low probability of impacting Earth on 4 May 2102.[3] It reached a Torino Scale rating of 2 and a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of -0.25.[3] With an observation arc of 17 years it is known that closest Earth approach will occur two days earlier on 2 May 2102 at a distance of about 5.5 million km.[1]

Close approaches[1]
Date JPL SBDB
nominal geocentric
distance		 uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2032-05-013140133 km± 127 km[4]
2102-05-025568961 km± 50 thousand km
2196-05-05996859 km± 354 thousand km

(144898) 2004 VD17
Discovery
Discovered byLINEAR
Discovery date7 November 2004
Designations
Orbital characteristics[1]
Epoch 2022-Jan-21 (JD 2459600.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc17.8 years
Aphelion2.3958 AU (358.41 million km)
Perihelion0.62008 AU (92.763 million km)
1.5079 AU (225.58 million km)
Eccentricity0.58878
1.85 yr (676.34 d)
133.93°
0° 31m 56.428s / day
Inclination4.2239°
224°
90.97°
Earth MOID0.0015 AU (220,000 km)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
320m[2]
580m (assumed)[3]
0.5–1.0 km (CNEOS)
Mass(0.13–1.8)×1012 kg
1.99 h (0.083 d)
E[2]
18.8

    History

    2004 VD17 was discovered on 7 November 2004, by the NASA-funded LINEAR asteroid survey. The object is estimated by NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office to be 580 meters in diameter with an approximate mass of 2.6×1011 kg.[5]

    Being approximately 580 meters in diameter, if 2004 VD17 were to impact land, it would create an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide and generate an earthquake of magnitude 7.4.[6]

    Elevated risk estimate in 2006

    From February to May 2006, 2004 VD17 was listed with a Torino Scale impact risk value of 2, only the second asteroid in risk-monitoring history to be rated above value 1.[7] With an observation arc of 1511 days, it was estimated to have a 1 in 1320 chance of impacting on 4 May 2102.[3] The Torino rating was lowered to 1 after additional observations on 20 May 2006, and finally dropped to 0 on 17 October 2006.

    2008 observations

    As of 4 January 2008, the Sentry Risk Table assigned 2004 VD17 a Torino value of 0 and an impact probability of 1 in 58.8 million for 4 May 2102.[5] This value was far below the background impact rate of objects this size. Further observations allowed it to be removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 14 February 2008.[8]

    It will pass 0.021 AU (3,100,000 km; 2,000,000 mi) from the Earth on 1 May 2032, allowing a refinement to the orbit.[1]

    Properties

    It has a spectral type of E.[2] This suggests that the asteroid has a high albedo and is on the smaller size range for an object with an absolute magnitude of 18.8.

    See also

    References
    1. "JPL Close-Approach Data: 144898 (2004 VD17)". Retrieved 12 December 2021.
    2. Luise, F. De; Perna, D.; Dotto, E.; Fornasier, S.; Belskaya, I.N.; Boattini, A. (2007). "Physical Investigation of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17". Icarus. 191 (2): 628–635. arXiv:0706.1140. Bibcode:2007Icar..191..628D. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2007.05.018. S2CID 14400781.
    3. "WayBack Machine archive from 17 April 2006". Wayback Machine. 17 April 2006. Archived from the original on 17 April 2006. Retrieved 7 August 2013. (7.6e-04 = 1 in 1,320 chance)
    4. "Horizons Batch for 2032-May-01 22:37 UT". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
    5. "WayBack Machine archive from 4 January 2008". Wayback Machine. 4 January 2008. Archived from the original on 4 January 2008. Retrieved 7 August 2013. (1.7e-08 = 1 in 58,824,000 chance)
    6. Kimm Groshong (1 March 2006). "New asteroid at top of Earth-threat list". New Scientist. Retrieved 28 December 2007.
    7. David Morrison (1 March 2006). "Asteroid 2004 VD17 classed as Torino Scale 2". Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazards (NASA). Archived from the original on 14 October 2011. Retrieved 6 November 2011.
    8. "Date/Time Removed" (listed as 144898). NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 1 March 2008. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
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