2007 FT3

2007 FT3 (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that can not be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 AU (28.4 ± 1.5 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.93, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT3 fifth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[6]

2007 FT3
Discovery[1]
Discovered byMt. Lemmon Survey
Discovery date20 March 2007
Designations
2007 FT3
Orbital characteristics[4]
Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc1.2 days[5]
Aphelion1.48±0.02 AU (Q)
Perihelion0.782±0.007 AU (q)
1.13±0.02 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.308±0.006 (e)
1.2±0.03 years
28.4 km/s[lower-alpha 1]
298°±3° (M)
Inclination26.9°±0.43° (i)
9.9°±0.2° (Ω)
277°±2° (ω)
Earth MOID0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ?
Jupiter MOID3.83 AU (573 million km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~340 m (1,100 ft)?[5]
  • 270–590 meters
20?[4]

    2013 virtual impactor

    The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur.[5] The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.

    2019 virtual impactor

    The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of 0.14 AU (21,000,000 km; 13,000,000 mi).[7] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

    There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019.[5] The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was 0.93 AU (139,000,000 km; 86,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 620 million km.[8] NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as 0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi).[7]

    2024 virtual impactor

    The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth).[9] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.[10]

    With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024,[5] which is 1,900 times lower than the background threat.[lower-alpha 2] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 500 million km.[10] NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi).[9]

    Virtual impactors (past and future)[5]
    Date Impact
    probability
    (1 in)    		 JPL Horizons
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 NEODyS
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 MPC[11]
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 Find_Orb
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 uncertainty[8]
    region
    2013-10-021.9 billion0.94 AU (141 million km)1.0 AU (150 million km)1.1 AU (160 million km)1.2 AU (180 million km)± 330 million km
    2019-10-0311 million0.93 AU (139 million km)0.95 AU (142 million km)[7]1.3 AU (190 million km)1.4 AU (210 million km)± 620 million km
    2024-10-0211 million1.7 AU (250 million km)[10]1.7 AU (250 million km)[9]2.0 AU (300 million km)[11]2.0 AU (300 million km)[12]± 500 million km[10]

    See also

    Notes
    1. v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.
    2. Palermo Scale for 2024 is −3.27 and 10^3.27 = 1862.

    References
    1. "MPEC 2007-F60: 2007 FT3". IAU Minor Planet Center. 21 March 2007. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (K07F03T)
    2. "NEODyS-2 Risk List". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 20 November 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
    3. "2007 FT3". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 11 January 2020.
    4. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 FT3)" (last observation: 2007-03-21; arc: 1 day). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
    5. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2007 FT3". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 30 December 2018. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (Wayback Machine 2012)
    6. "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring". NASA/JPL Center for NEO Studies. Retrieved 12 June 2022. (Use Unconstrained Settings to reveal impact probability below 1e-7)
    7. "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
    8. Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
      RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 6 April 2017 generates RNG_3sigma = 620915473 for 3 October 2019.)
    9. "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2024". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 4 April 2021. Retrieved 4 April 2021.
    10. "Horizons Batch for 2024-10-02 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 10 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = 487811582 for 2024-Oct-02.)
    11. "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
    12. "Find_Orb for 2024-10-02". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 20 April 2021. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
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