2010 Bosnian general election

General elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 3 October 2010. They decided the makeup of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Presidency as well as national, entity, and cantonal governments.[1]

2010 Bosnian general election

3 October 2010
Turnout56.57% (Increase 1.26 pp)
Bosniak member of the Presidency
 
Candidate Bakir Izetbegović Fahrudin Radončić
Party SDA SBB
Popular vote 162,831 142,387
Percentage 34.86% 30.49%
Croat member of the Presidency
 
Candidate Željko Komšić Borjana Krišto
Party SDP BiH HDZ BiH
Popular vote 337,065 109,758
Percentage 60.61% 19.74%
Serb member of the Presidency
 
Candidate Nebojša Radmanović Mladen Ivanić
Party SNSD PDP
Popular vote 295,629 285,951
Percentage 48.92% 47.31%

Presidency members before election

Haris Silajdžić (Bosniak)
Željko Komšić (Croat)
Nebojša Radmanović (Serb)

Elected Presidency members

Bakir Izetbegović (Bosniak)
Željko Komšić (Croat)
Nebojša Radmanović (Serb)


All 42 seats in the House of Representatives
22 seats needed for a majority
Turnout
56.53% (Increase 1.17 pp)
PartyLeader % Seats +/–
SDP BiH Zlatko Lagumdžija 17.33 8 +3
SNSD Milorad Dodik 16.92 8 +1
SDA Sulejman Tihić 13.05 7 -2
SDS Mladen Bosić 8.40 4 +1
SBB Fahrudin Radončić 7.95 4 New
HDZ BiH Dragan Čović 6.97 3 0
SBiH Haris Silajdžić 5.28 2 -6
HK Zvonko Jurišić & Božo Ljubić 3.05 2 0
NSRzB Mladen Ivanković-Lijanović 2.99 1 0
PDP Mladen Ivanić 2.44 1 0
DNS Marko Pavić 1.81 1 0
DNZ Fikret Abdić 0.92 1 0
Colours denote the party with the most votes by municipalities.
Chairman before Chairman after
Nikola Špirić
SNSD
Vjekoslav Bevanda
HDZ BiH

The elections for the House of Representatives were divided into two; one for the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and one for Republika Srpska.[2] In the presidential election, voters in the Federation elected Bosniak Bakir Izetbegović and re-elected Croat Željko Komšić, while voters in Republika Srpska re-elected Serb Nebojša Radmanović. The Social Democratic Party and the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats emerged as the largest parties in the House of Representatives, each winning 8 of the 42 seats.

Background

After the Bosnian War and the Dayton Agreement that ended the war, the constitution set out, in Article V, a tripartite rotational Presidency between the Bosniak, Croat and Serb entities. Each Presidency member serves a four-year term, with the Chairman of the Presidency rotation every 8 months, with the first chairman being the one with most votes in the election.[3]

Candidates

Presidency

There were three candidates for the Bosniak member of the Presidency: the incumbent Haris Silajdžić, of Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, the owner of Dnevni avaz Fahrudin Radončić, of the Union for a Better Future of BiH and Bakir Izetbegović of the Party of Democratic Action and the son of Alija Izetbegović, the founding president of Bosnia and Herzegovina.[4]

The Croat candidate was: incumbent Željko Komšić from the Social Democratic Party, who was elected in 2006 when large numbers of Bosniaks voted for him rather than voting for a Bosniak candidate.[4]

The Serb candidate was: incumbent Nebojša Radmanović of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, who was expected to win.[4]

Campaign

Following the International Court of Justice's opinion that Kosovo's declaration of independence did not violate international law Republika Srpska's Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said there would be repercussions in Bosnia and Herzegovina and that the issue would be discussed in depth after the elections.[5] During his campaign Dodik reiterated support for the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina and denied that the massacre in Srebrenica constituted a genocide.[6] Boris Tadić, president of Serbia, expressed his support for Dodik, Tadić stated that he was "here to support my friends who run RS in the best possible way".[7][8] He was later criticised by the SDA for supporting "a man who openly denies genocide in Srebrenica and calls for secession of Republika Srpska."[7]

The Croat and Bosniak candidates were "strong supporters of a unified Bosnia," while Serb candidate advocated the separation of the Bosnian Serbs entity from the rest of the country.[9] Dodik asserted that "Only the Serb Republic is self-sustaining, Bosnia-Herzegovina is not." He had a "strategic partnership" with the Croat nationalist Dragan Čović to support each other's calls for greater independence or autonomy as the Croatian side advocated. The Bosniaks, however, said would fight for a united Bosnia, and sought a stronger federal government - a key condition for European Union membership.[10]

These polls were described as the most crucial since the civil war as a lot of campaigning focused on ethnic nationalism and voting for candidates of the same ethnicity. One political analyst, compared this campaign to that of 1990, before the breakup of Yugoslavia, when Bosnia had the choice of becoming a part of greater Serbia or an independent multi-ethnic country pointed out that "for exactly 20 years we have been spinning around in the same political pattern."[3]

The official campaign started on 3 September, and lasted for next 30 days. Hate speech in the election campaign in BiH has become a normal occurrence. Because of that, Central Election Commission announced that they will not tolerate any form of hate speech.[11] Nervousness of political parties was manifested through the violation of the Election Law of BiH,[11] and particularly through the manipulation of so-called public opinion research and publication in the form of paid advertising. The first phase of the media war waged mainly through portals and news releases.

The campaign was significant because politicians were allowed to "use all their weapons" in publicity. Experts stated that this campaign was something new in Bosnia and Herzegovina because it was creative as opposed to the earlier campaigns.[11]

  • Our Party (NS) - Election campaign of the coalition of the Our Party nad New Socialist Party - Zdravko Kršmanović started on 3 September by laying a wreath at the memorial area of Donja Gradina, at the Jasenovac concentration camp.
  • Serb Democratic Party (SDS) - They started their election campaign with advertisements and election rallies in Banja Luka.
  • Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) - SNSD started election campaign at noon of 3 September on Squer of Krajina in Banja Luka with simbolic sticking of their first propaganda poster. President of the SNSD and candidat for president of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik and president of Executive Board of SNSD and candidate for member of Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Nebojša Radmanović had stick that first propaganda poster.
  • Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) - President of the party, prof. dr. sc. Dragan Čović hung out with the most socially vulnerable members of population. He stated that his party wants to emphasize the social care for people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially between Croats. Candidate for memeer of Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Borjana Krišto started her official campaign on 3 September from her birth town Livno. In the morning she laid a wreath at the Memorial Center in the Donji Rujani, and at noon she addressed to the citizens at King Tomislav's Square in Livno, then she hung out with the assembled multitude. At the presence of many citizens, friends and members of her family she stated that her start of election campaign is very symbolic because Livno is a Croatian town that "never lost a single battle". She also added that she will come back victorious and "...announce victory of the Croatian people."
  • Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) - At the first they of election campaign, supporters and sympathizers of the party had met at the Iftar in Gradačac. At this meeting they stated that they will win the elections because they will "probably win those who gaved fake hope to the people previous years". About 600 fasting persons welcomed the party's president and candidate for Bosniak member of the Presidency, Fahrudin Radončić. Large number of sympathizers waited Radončić at the entrance of "Europrof", where they later continued with Iftar.
  • Croatian Party of Rights - Candidate for Prime Minister of Herzegovina-Neretva Canton Živko Budimir had opened his Election Campaign at midnight of 3 September. He talked to the police representatives and tour to the police patrols. Professor Petar Milić, president of the Main Department of Croatian Party of Rights of Bosnia and Herzegovina and candidate of Coalition of Croatian Democratic Union 1990 and Croatian Party of Rights for House of Representatives of Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina started his campaign with the most sensitive part of Croats - the exiles.

Opinion polls

Opinion polls suggested Dodik's "Alliance of Independent Social Democrats" would remain the largest Serb party, as well as the country as a whole. The "Social Democratic Party" of Zlatko Lagumdžija would be the largest party in the federation, followed by the "Party of Democratic Action."[10]

An analyst at the "Why not?" NGO in Sarajevo suggested the elections importance was because "change will finally happen [...] because the ones who are in power now have proved they are not capable of leading the country and bringing the necessary reforms. Civil society has been very active about these elections and we hope this will have an impact." She said that if there were changes in the establishment ethnic relations would not be as tense.[10] An August 2010 survey of 2,000 respondents by the National Democratic Institute. suggested that voters on both sides are tired of nationalist rhetoric and pessimistic about the future of Bosnia.[12] 87 percent felt that nationalist parties are leading the country in the wrong direction.[12] Respondents said politicians discussed nationalist issues too much, while employment and economic issues were not discussed enough.[12] They thought that the biggest issue was unemployment, followed by corruption and crime.[12]

Results

In total, 3,126,599 citizens registered to vote.[2] There were 5,276 polling centres: 4,981 regular, 145 for voting in absentia, 143 for voting in person and 7 at Bosnian embassies abroad.[13] There were also 1,200 observers, including 485 international observers.[10]

The Central Electoral Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina ordered a recount of 66,138 votes that were declared void.[14] This could change the victory of Nebojša Radmanović, candidate of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), who won the Serb seat of the central presidency by a narrow margin of 9,697.[14] Mladen Ivanić of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) lost by less than two percent.[14]

Presidency

CandidatePartyVotes%
Bosniak member
Bakir IzetbegovićParty of Democratic Action162,83134.86
Fahrudin RadončićUnion for a Better Future of BiH142,38730.49
Haris SilajdžićParty for Bosnia and Herzegovina117,24025.10
Ibrahim ĐedovićDemocratic People's Union13,3692.86
Mujo DemirovićBosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party8,9511.92
Ðemal LatićParty of Democratic Activity8,7381.87
Ibrahim SpahićCivic Democratic Party6,9481.49
Izudin KešetovićBosnian Party4,2280.91
Aida JusićIndependent2,3470.50
Total467,039100.00
Croat member
Željko KomšićSocial Democratic Party337,06560.61
Borjana KrištoCroatian Democratic Union109,75819.74
Martin RagužCroatian Coalition60,26610.84
Jerko Ivanković LijanovićPeople's Party Work for Prosperity45,3978.16
Pero GalićIndependent1,5810.28
Mile KutleIndependent1,0690.19
Ferdo GalićIndependent9750.18
Total556,111100.00
Serb member
Nebojša RadmanovićAlliance of Independent Social Democrats295,62948.92
Mladen IvanićTogether for Srpska (PDPSDS)285,95147.31
Rajko PapovićUnion for a Democratic Srpska22,7903.77
Total604,370100.00
Valid votes1,627,52092.02
Invalid/blank votes141,0537.98
Total votes1,768,573100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,126,59956.57
Source: CEC

House of Representatives

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Social Democratic Party284,43517.338+3
Alliance of Independent Social Democrats277,81916.928+1
Party of Democratic Action214,30013.057–2
Serb Democratic Party137,8448.404+1
Union for a Better Future of BiH130,4487.954New
Croatian Democratic Union114,4766.9730
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina86,6695.282–6
Croatian Coalition50,0713.0520
People's Party Work for Prosperity49,0502.9910
Party of Democratic Progress40,0702.4410
Democratic People's Alliance29,6581.8110
Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party28,7041.750–1
Bosnian Party19,4411.1800
Our Party–New Socialist Party19,4351.180New
Party of Democratic Activity18,0051.100New
Democratic People's Union15,1530.9210
Democratic Party15,0570.920New
Socialist Party14,5730.8900
Serbian Radical Party "Dr. Vojislav Šešelj"14,3200.8700
Party of the Penniless People11,6990.710New
Pensioners' Party11,1580.6800
Serbian Radical Party10,4830.6400
Serb Progressive Party8,6360.530New
Social Democratic Union8,7550.5300
Croatian Peasant Party8,0960.4900
National Democratic Party6,6920.4100
Alliance for Srpska Democracy4,9110.300New
Democratic Party of the Disabled3,6240.2200
Party for the People3,1740.190New
Turnaround Coalition (GDS–NEP)2,4510.1500
LDSEES E-52,3050.1400
Independents570.000New
Total1,641,569100.00420
Valid votes1,641,56992.78
Invalid/blank votes127,6787.22
Total votes1,769,247100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,129,59956.53
Source: CEC

By entity

PartyFederationRepublika SrpskaTotal
seats
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Social Democratic Party266,02326.07818,4122.9608
Alliance of Independent Social Democrats8,8100.860269,00943.3088
Party of Democratic Action197,92219.40716,3782.6407
Serb Democratic Party137,84422.1944
Union for a Better Future of BiH124,11412.1646,3341.0204
Croatian Democratic Union112,11510.9932,3610.3803
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina74,0047.25212,6652.0402
Croatian Coalition49,5494.8625220.0802
People's Party Work for Prosperity49,0504.8111
Party of Democratic Progress40,0706.4511
Democratic People's Alliance1,1470.11028,5114.5911
Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party28,1022.7506020.1000
Bosnian Party19,2241.8802170.0300
Our Party–New Socialist Party11,9171.1707,5181.2100
Party of Democratic Activity17,6341.7303710.0600
Democratic People's Union14,8431.4513100.0501
Democratic Party15,0572.4200
Socialist Party14,5732.3500
Serbian Radical Party "Dr. Vojislav Šešelj"14,3202.3000
Party of the Penniless People11,4621.1202370.0400
Pensioners' Party11,1581.0900
Serbian Radical Party10,4831.6900
Serb Progressive Party8,6361.3900
Social Democratic Union8,6030.8401520.0200
Croatian Peasant Party3,5220.3504,5740.7400
National Democratic Party6,6921.0800
Alliance for Srpska Democracy4,9110.7900
Democratic Party of the Disabled3,5770.350470.0100
Party for the People3,1740.3100
Turnaround Coalition (GDS–NEP)2,0530.2003980.0600
LDSEES E-52,2900.220150.0000
Independents570.0100
Total1,020,293100.0028621,276100.001442
Valid votes1,020,29392.90621,27692.60
Invalid/blank votes78,0097.1049,6697.40
Total votes1,098,302100.00670,945100.00
Source: CEC

House of Peoples

The 15 members of the House of Peoples was elected following the elections by the parliaments of the two entities – 10 members by the House of Representatives of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (5 Bosniaks and 5 Croats); and 5 members by the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska.

Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

In the Federation this includes:

House of Representatives of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

PartyVotes%Seats
DirectCompensatoryTotal
Social Democratic Party251,05324.5320828
Party of Democratic Action206,92620.2217623
Union for a Better Future of BiH121,69711.8911213
Croatian Democratic Union108,94310.6410212
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina78,0867.63819
People's Party Work for Prosperity48,2864.72-55
Croatian Coalition47,9414.68415
Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party27,9522.73000
Party of Democratic Activity19,2541.88101
Democratic People's Union15,0821.47101
Bosnian Party14,5921.43000
Pensioner's Party13,8501.35000
Kokuza Party13,3401.30000
Our Party–New Socialist Party13,0291.27000
Alliance of Independent Social Democrats9,5050.93101
Social Democratic Union7,9250.77000
Croatian Peasant Party–New Croatian Initiative5,7250.56000
Party for the People4,2390.41000
LDSEES E-53,3840.33000
Turnaround Coalition (GDS–NEP)3,3370.33000
Democratic Party of the Disabled2,7800.27000
Party of the United Independent Democrats2,6440.26000
Right Way Party1,8750.18000
Democratic People's Alliance1,2360.12000
Croatian Party of Rights "Dr. Ante Starčević"7950.08000
Socialist Party530.01000
Total1,023,529100.00732598
Valid votes1,023,52993.21
Invalid/blank votes74,5426.79
Total votes1,098,071100.00
Source: CEC

Canton Parliaments

All 289 seats in the assemblies of the cantons of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina were up for election (Bosnian: skupština kantona, Croatian: sabor županije, Serbian Cyrillic: скупштина кантона).

Party
USK

PK

TK

ZDK

BPK

SBK

HNK

ZHK

KS

K10
Total
  Social Democratic Party (SDP) 21,104 23.38 816 5.24 56,188 30.77 35,724 25.41 2,682 24.48 16,285 17.33 9,005 13.47 252 0.74 42,692 24.19 990 4.13 186,015
  Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 20,902 23.16 1,602 10,29 45,058 24,68 35,144 25.00 2,509 22.90 16,764 17.84 9,927 14.85 0 0 31,459 17.82 1,130 4.72 164,218
  Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) 7,280 8.07 452 2.92 14,995 8.21 12,055 8.57 1628 14.86 6,621 7.05 2,634 3.94 0 0 18,213 10.32 213 0.89 64,091
  Party of Democratic Activity (A-SDA) 11,019 12.21 0 0 4,303 2.36 1,822 1.30 201 1.83 555 0.59 60 0.09 0 0 1,726 0.98 0 0 19,686
  Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) 6,438 7.13 512 3.29 19,088 10.45 18,110 12.88 1,383 12.62 12,207 12.99 4,953 7.41 0 0 30,619 17.35 304 1.27 93,614
  Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) 591 0.65 6,413 41.19 5,627 3.08 7,330 5.21 0 0 20,417 21.73 22,623 33.83 17,526 51.65 1,846 1.05 6,247 26.09 88,620
  Liberal Democratic Party (LDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 369 0.26 33 0.30 157 0.17 63 0.09 0 0 1,536 0.87 0 0 2,518
  Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) 527 0.58 3425 22.00 303 0.17 2,181 1.55 0 0 6,633 7.06 8,324 12.45 5,211 15.36 578 0.33 3,080 12.86 30,262
  Croatian Party of Rights (HSP BiH) 7 0.01 454 2.92 * * * * 0 0 * * 3,235 4.84 4,358 12.84 * * 2,284 9.54 10,338*
  Croatian Peasant Party–New Croatian Initiative (HSS–NHI) 0 0 606 3.89 135 0.07 503 0.36 0 0 2,914 3.10 0 0 0 0 243 0.14 1,217 5.08 5,618
  People's Party Work for Prosperity 4837 5.36 336 2.16 8,980 4.92 9,059 6.44 1,085 9.90 5,710 6.08 2,262 3.38 3,883 11.44 5,549 3.14 2,264 9.46 43,965
  Democratic People's Alliance (DNS) 90 0.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,205 5.03 1,360
  Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party (BPS) 857 0.95 0 0 6,764 3.70 4,825 3.43 705 6.44 1,508 1.60 1,148 1.72 0 0 8,509 4.82 0 0 24,316
  Democratic People's Union 11,844 13.12 0 0 0 0 250 0.18 0 0 0 0 5 0.01 7 0.02 196 0.11 32 0.13 12,334
  Pensioners' Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina 655 0.73 60 0.39 1,674 0.92 2,912 2.07 145 1.32 924 0.98 524 0.78 458 1.35 3,095 1.75 0 0 10,447
  Our Party (NS) 980 1.09 35 0.22 2,500 1.37 1,493 1.06 69 0.63 788 0.84 179 0.27 0 0 8,385 4.75 74 0.31 14,503
  Bosnian Party (BOSS) 314 0.35 46 0.30 4,429 2.43 1,968 1.40 255 2.33 1,199 1.28 200 0.30 0 0 6,247 3.54 0 0 14,658
  Social Democratic Union (SDU BiH) 889 0.98 0 0 4,501 2.47 164 0.12 0 0 362 0.39 0 0 0 0 6,019 3.41 89 0.37 12,024
  Alliance of Independent Social Democrats 1,012 1.12 0 0 450 0.25 310 0.22 130 1.19 166 0.18 794 1.19 0 0 1,641 0.93 3,089 12.90 7,592
  Others 914 1.01 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Source - Central Electoral Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Party
USK

PK

TK

ZDK

BPK

SBK

HNK

ZHK

KS

K10
Total +/-
  Social Democratic Party (SDP) 8 1 13 10 7 6 5 - 10 1 61 +18
  Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 7 2 10 10 6 6 5 - 7 2 55 -19
  Croatian Democratic Union BiH (HDZ BiH) - 8 1 2 - 7 10 13 - 7 48 +12
  Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) 2 1 4 5 3 4 3 - 7 - 29 -
  Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) 3 1 3 4 4 2 2 - 4 - 23 -36
  People's Party Work for Prosperity 2 - 2 3 3 2 1 3 1 3 20 +10
  Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) - 5 - - - 2 3 4 - 4 18 -11
  Croatian Peasant Party–New Croatian Initiative - 2 - - - 1 1 3 - 4 11 -3
  Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party (BPS) - - 2 1 2 - - - 2 - 7 -1
  Party of Democratic Activity (A-SDA) 4 - - - - - - - - - 4 ?
  Democratic People's Union (DNZ) 4 - - - - - - - - - 4 -2
  Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) - - - - - - - - - 3 3 -2
  Bosnian Party/Social Democratic Union (BOSS/SDU) - - - - - - - - 2 - 2 -3
  Our Party (NS) - - - - - - - - 2 - 2 ?
  Posavina Party (PS) - 1 - - - - - - - - 1 ?
  Democratic People's Alliance - - - - - - - - - 1 1 ?
  Total 30 21 35 35 25 30 30 23 35 25    

Republika Srpska

Reactions

Štefan Füle, European commissioner for enlargement and neighbourhood policy, urged Bosnian politicians to speed up the establishment of State and Entity governments using the EU agenda as a negotiation base for coalition building. Füle underlined the need for constitutional amendments to ensure compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights and improve governance, for a new Census Law to provide reliable statistical data, and for the establishment of an independent state aid authority.[15]

The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Bosnia and Herzegovina a week after the elections in an effort to push for political reforms to fully integration the entry into both the European Union and NATO. She also called for unity and criticised threats of secession of Srpska made by Milorad Dodik.[16] A US diplomat in Europe said he thought the reforms are necessary and that "the Bosnians need to follow up. The rest of the region is moving towards Europe, and Bosnia is going to have to overcome these ethnic divisions [...] if they want to go down this path."[17]

In the international media, the election was read as seeing the country "still mired in political deadlock and ethnic rivalry," because of a continued political stalemate that leaves the unique tripartite presidency split over the future of the country. This also meant a likelihood of a delayed economic recovery and the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union.[18]

Analysis

Komšić's 2010 election results by municipality expressed as a percentage of total valid votes for each municipality. Note that the Bosniak and Croat members of the Presidency are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entity, while the Serb member is elected from the Republika Srpska entity (greyed out on the map).

Many officials of the Croatian Democratic Union party have claimed that the re-election of Željko Komšić (SDP) as the Croat member of the presidency was due to Bosniaks choosing to vote on the Croat list.[19][20][21] Bulk of the votes Komšić received came from predominantly Bosniak areas and he fared quite poorly in Croat municipalities, supported by less than 2,5% of the electorate in a number of municipalities in Western Herzegovina, such as Široki Brijeg, Ljubuški (0,8%), Čitluk, Posušje and Tomislavgrad, while not being able to gain not even 10% in a number of others.[22] Furthermore, total Croat population in whole of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is estimated around 495,000;[23] Komšić received 336,961 votes alone, while all other Croat candidates won 230,000 votes altogether. Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina consider him to be an illegitimate representative and generally treat him as a second Bosniak member of the presidency.[24][25][26][27] This raised frustration among Croats, undermined their trust in federal institutions and empowered claims for their own entity or a federal unit, while opening so-called "Croatian question".[28]

The Social Democratic Party of Zlatko Lagumdžija appeared to be the biggest winner of the election, while the Party of Democratic Action contained their expected losses, while the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina of Haris Silajdžić lost ground. The Alliance of the Independent Social Democrats of Milorad Dodik strengthened its presence in both Republika Srpska and at state level. None of the newly established parties, with the exception of Fahrudin Radončić's Union for a Better Future of BiH were able to pass the threshold and gain seats in either of the parliamentary bodies.[15] Two blocs can therefore be noticed at state level: the Alliance of the Independent Social Democrats and the Croatian Democratic Union on one side and the Social Democratic Party and the Party of Democratic Action on the other. The negotiations to form a new government at both Federation and State level are expected to take some time.[15]

In Republika Srpska, Dodik secured a stable majority, and his election as Entity President will likely signal a trend of presidentialisation of Srpska's political system, in line with what happened in Serbia after Boris Tadić's presidential election.[15]

Aftermath

At the Federal level, the formation of government took place. There were two major coalitions which were formed after the election: Social Democratic Party, Party of Democratic Action, Croatian Party of Rights and People's Party Work for Betterment; and a looser grouping of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, Serb Democratic Party, Croatian Democratic Union and Croatian Democratic Union 1990. Neither group had a parliamentary majority, nor did they have full representation from the three constitutional peoples.

References

  1. "BiH to hold general elections on October 3rd". Southeast European Times. 6 May 2010.
  2. "INTERIM REPORT No.1 26 August – 13 September 2010" (PDF). OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. 21 September 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 July 2014. Retrieved 1 October 2010.
  3. "Bosnians vote in crucial elections". Al Jazeera. 3 October 2010.
  4. "News Analysis: Few surprises expected in Bosnian general elections". Xinhua News Agency. 3 October 2010. Archived from the original on 9 February 2013.
  5. "RS: ICJ decision and secession". B92. 25 July 2010. Archived from the original on 8 June 2011. Retrieved 25 July 2010.
  6. "Nationalism High, Hopes Low in Bosnia Election". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 1 October 2010.
  7. Arslanagic, Sabina (30 September 2010). "Serbian President Publicly Backs Dodik Campaign". Balkan Insight.
  8. "Tadic supports SNSD candidates ahead of elections in BiH". Tanjug. 30 September 2010.
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