2022 United Conservative Party leadership election

The 2022 United Conservative Party leadership election was held on October 6 in Alberta to select a new leader of the United Conservative Party and Premier of Alberta. The leadership election was triggered following the May 18 leadership review in which the United Conservative Party membership voted 51.4 per cent in support of incumbent Premier Jason Kenney's leadership. In Kenney's speech following the announcement of the results, Kenney issued his resignation as leader of the United Conservative Party. Nominations for leadership of the United Conservative Party closed on July 20, with seven candidates meeting the nomination criteria. Party members selected their preference for leader using instant-runoff voting between September 2 and October 3.

2022 United Conservative Party leadership election
October 6, 2022
 
Candidate Danielle Smith Travis Toews Brian Jean
Riding None[lower-alpha 1] Grande Prairie-Wapiti Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche
Final ballot[lower-alpha 2][1][2] 42,423
(53.77%)		 36,480
(46.23%)		 Eliminated
First ballot[3] 34,949
(41.3%)		 24,831
(29.4%)		 9,301
(11.0%)
 
Candidate Rebecca Schulz Todd Loewen Rajan Sawhney
Riding Calgary-Shaw Central Peace-Notley Calgary-North East
Final ballot[lower-alpha 3][4][5] Eliminated Eliminated Eliminated
First ballot[6] 5,835
(6.9%)		 6,496
(7.7%)		 1,787
(2.1%)
 
Candidate Leela Aheer
Riding Chestermere-Strathmore
Final ballot[lower-alpha 4][7][8] Eliminated
First ballot[9] 1,394
(1.6%)
Leader before election

Jason Kenney

 Elected Leader

Danielle Smith

2022 United Conservative Party leadership election
DateOctober 6, 2022
ConventionBMO Centre
Resigning leaderJason Kenney
Won byDanielle Smith
Ballots6
Candidates7
Entrance Fee$150,000

On October 6, the result were announced with former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith being elected as leader of the United Conservative Party, defeating all other candidates including former Minister of Finance Travis Toews after six ballot counts. A week later on October 11, Smith was sworn in as the 19th Premier of Alberta.

Background

Formation of the United Conservative Party and Jason Kenney's leadership

In March 2017, former federal cabinet minister Jason Kenney was elected Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta leader on a platform of joining with the Wildrose Party to form a unified right-of-centre party. Two months later Kenney and Wildrose leader Brian Jean jointly announced that the question of a merger between parties would be posed to the membership of each party through a vote, which on July 22, 2017, was approved by the membership in both parties.

Following the merger approval a leadership contest was held with three candidates, Kenney, former Wildrose leader Jean, and attorney Doug Schweitzer. Kenney was elected leader of the newly formed United Conservative Party with a plurality of 61.2 per cent of the vote. The Kenney lead United Conservative Party swept into power in the April 2019 Alberta general election, capturing 63 of 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta, forming a majority government, and defeating the incumbent Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Notley. On April 30, 2019, Jason Kenney was sworn in as the 18th premier of Alberta.

2022 United Conservative Party leadership review

One year after the United Conservative Party was swept into power, the COVID-19 pandemic reached Alberta. Kenney's approval ratings amongst Albertans and members of the United Conservative Party began to slip following successive waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier Angus Reid polling reports said that, "Albertans have grown increasingly critical" of Premier Kenney and the UCP "government's response to the coronavirus, and the province's finances are in historically poor shape with oil revenues plummeting and pandemic-related economic shocks persisting."[10] The June 2021 report said that "both sides" of Alberta's "political spectrum" have been angered by Kenney's response to the pandemic; they are critical of his approach to pandemic-related restrictions.[11][12]

On September 17, 2021, Joel Mullan, United Conservative Party Vice President of policy, publicly called for the party board to consider initiating an early leadership review of Premier Kenney.[13] Later in September, the United Conservative Party board announced a leadership review would take place at the party's annual general meeting in April 2022, ahead of the previous plans for a leadership review to take place in fall 2022.[14] In March 2022, the United Conservative Party changed the format for the leadership review, moving to a mail-in ballot beginning in April, with results to be announced on May 18. The change in format was criticized by some party membership including Brian Jean.[15]

On May 18, 2022, after receiving support from 51.4 per cent of the United Conservative Party members, Kenney announced he would step down as leader of the United Conservative Party.[16][17] The United Conservative Party caucus met on May 19, and caucus chair Nathan Neudorf affirmed that Kenney would remain as leader of the party until a new leader was elected.[18] Kenney subsequently informed the party secretary of his intention to resign as leader of the party after a new leader is elected.[18]

Leadership contest

The United Conservative Party leadership election process was conducted using instant-runoff voting, whereby voters may rank as many candidates as they desired and an individual is considered elected once they reached more than 50 per cent of the votes.[19] With the instant-runoff format, if no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote, the candidate with the lowest per cent of support is removed from the contest, and the removed candidate's ballots are redistributed to the remaining candidates as per the voter's next marked back-up preference.[19] Rick Orman, a former Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta Member of the Legislative Assembly, and unsuccessful leadership candidate in the 1992 Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta leadership election served as the returning officer, and announced the results of each ballot.[20]

Albertans were eligible to vote in the leadership election if they had purchased a party membership prior to August 12.[21] Mail-in voting opened on September 2 and continued until October 3.[21]

Some did not rank all the candidates. By the Sixth Count, about 6000 votes had become "exhausted". As exhausted votes accumulated, to win, the successful candidate had to merely acquire a majority of votes still in play, not majority of total valid votes cast in the First Count.

The total valid votes cast in the first round numbered 84,193. The majority required to win in the first round was 42,297. The lowest ranked candidate in each round was dropped, with their votes redistributed, until the sixth round when Smith's vote total exceeded 50% of votes still in play, which happened to be also more than half of votes cast in the 1st Count.

Timeline
  • May 18 - Party announces results of the 2022 UCP Special General Meeting with 51.4 per cent of party members voted in favour of Kenney staying on as leader. Kenney announces his intentions to resign.[22][23] Brian Jean declares his candidacy.[24]
  • May 19 – UCP Caucus votes to allow Kenney to remain as leader until a new leader is elected by the party.[18] Danielle Smith declares her candidacy.[25]
  • May 31 – Travis Toews declares his candidacy.[26]
  • June 1 – Todd Loewen declares his candidacy.[27]
  • June 2 – Bill Rock declares his candidacy.[28]
  • June 7 – Leela Aheer declares her candidacy.[29]
  • June 13 – Rajan Sawhney declares her candidacy.[30]
  • June 14 – Rebecca Schulz declares her candidacy.[31]
  • June 28 – Jon Horsman declares his candidacy.
  • June 29 – Raj Sherman declares his candidacy.
  • July 20 – Candidate entry deadline.[32]
  • August 12 – Membership cut-off date.[32]
  • September 2 – Mail-in voting begins.[32]
  • October 3 – Deadline for mail-in ballots.[33]
  • October 6 – Results announced.[32]

Candidates

Leela Aheer
Background

Leela Aheer, 51, is the MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore (2019–present), former MLA for Chestermere-Rocky View (2015–2019) and Deputy Leader of the United Conservative Party (2017–2021). She is the former Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism & Status of Women (2019–2021).

Date candidacy declared: June 7[34]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 13[35]
Date candidacy approved: July 22[36]
Campaign website: https://www.voteleela.ca/
Campaign slogan: Lead with Leela

Brian Jean
Background

Brian Jean, 59, is the MLA for Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche (2022–present).[37] He was the final Leader of the Wildrose Party (2015–2017), Leader of the Opposition (2015–2017), MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin (2015–2017), MP for Athabasca (2004–2006) and Fort McMurray—Athabasca (2006–2014), and Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities (2006–2011).

Date candidacy declared: May 18[24]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: May 31[35]
Date candidacy approved: July 19[38]
Campaign website: https://www.brianjean.ca/
Campaign slogan: Autonomy for Albertans
Endorsements of Brian Jean
MLAs: (2)
Former MLAs: (1)
Former federal politicians: (1)

Todd Loewen
Background

Todd Loewen, 55, is the independent MLA for Central Peace-Notley (2019–present) and former MLA for Grande Prairie-Smoky (2015-2019). He was expelled from the UCP in 2021 after criticizing the government response to COVID-19. He previously served as the UCP Caucus Chair (2019-2021).[45]

Date candidacy declared: June 1[46]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 1[35]
Date candidacy approved: July 22[47]
Campaign website: https://www.toddloewen.com/
Campaign slogan: Your Alberta, Your Way[48]

Rajan Sawhney
Background

Rajan Sawhney is the MLA for Calgary-North East (2019–present) and Minister of Transportation (2021–present). She is the former Minister of Community and Social Services (2019–2021).

Date candidacy declared: June 13[30]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 16[35]
Date candidacy approved: July 21[49]
Campaign website: https://www.rajansawhney.ca/
Campaign slogan: Forward
Endorsements of Rajan Sawhney
MLAs: (0)

Rebecca Schulz
Background

Rebecca Schulz is the MLA for Calgary-Shaw (2019–present) and Minister of Children's Services (2019–present).[45][51]

Date candidacy declared: June 14[31]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 14[35]
Date candidacy approved: July 22[52]
Campaign website: https://www.rebeccaforleader.ca/
Campaign slogan: Back On Track
Endorsements of Rebecca Schulz
MLAs: (5)
Federal politicians: (3)
Municipal politicians: (1)
Former federal politicians: (1)
Former provincial politicians: (3)

Danielle Smith
Background

Danielle Smith, 51, is a UCP nomination candidate in Livingstone-Macleod.[37] She was the MLA for Highwood (2012–2015), the Leader of the Opposition (2012–2014), and leader of the Wildrose Party (2009–2014).

Date candidacy declared: May 19[25]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 1[35]
Date candidacy approved: July 18[60]
Campaign website: https://www.daniellesmith.ca/
Campaign slogan: Danielle Smith For Premier
Endorsements of Danielle Smith
MLAs: (9)
Former MLAs: (3)
Other prominent individuals: (2)

Travis Toews
Background

Travis Toews, 57, is the MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti (2019–present) and former Minister of Finance and President of the Treasury Board (2019–2022).

Date candidacy declared: May 31[26]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: May 30[76]
Date candidacy approved: July 5[77]
Campaign website: https://www.toewsforalberta.ca/
Campaign slogan: Toews For Alberta
Endorsements of Travis Toews
MLAs: (28)
Federal politicians: (3)
Indigenous politicians: (2)
Former MLAs: (2)
Former federal politicians: (6)
Other prominent individuals: (2)

Jon Horsman
Background

Jon Horsman is a former ATB Financial executive.[98] After withdrawing, he endorsed Travis Toews.[96]

Date candidacy declared: June 28[99]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 29[35]
Date withdrew: July 20[100][101]
Campaign website: http://jonhorsman.ca/
Campaign slogan: Refresh Alberta Now!
Endorsements of Jon Horsman
Municipal Politicians: (1)
  • Bill Rock (Mayor of Amisk and withdrawn leadership candidate)[102]

Bill Rock
Background

Bill Rock is the mayor of Amisk.[103][104] He was the Wildrose Party candidate for Wetaskiwin-Camrose in the 2015 Alberta general election, finishing third.[105] After withdrawing, he endorsed Jon Horsman.[102]

Date candidacy declared: June 2[106]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 2[35]
Date withdrew: July 9[107][108]
Campaign website: https://billrock.ca/
Campaign slogan: Bill Rock For UCP Leader

Raj Sherman
Background

Raj Sherman is the former leader of the Alberta Liberal Party (2011–2015), Leader of the Opposition (2011–2012), and MLA for Edmonton-Meadowlark (2008–2015).[109] He currently works as an emergency physician. He requested an exemption to run in the race for not being a party member for 6 months, however it was rejected by the UCP Leadership Election Committee.[110][111] Despite his exemption being denied, he still plans to run for the leadership and submit all the papers.[112][113] On July 25, it was announced that Sherman was still denied a chance to enter the race.[114]

Date candidacy declared: June 29[115]
Date candidacy registered with Elections Alberta: June 24[35]
Campaign website: https://electraj.ca/
Campaign slogan: Experienced. Caring. Decisive.

Declined

Vote Count Process

Instant-runoff voting was used to determine the new party leader.

Danielle Smith led on the 1st Count and eventually accumulated a majority of the votes still in play to be declared the winner. Votes dropped out of play if they were to be transferred but bore no next usable back-up preference.

Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6
Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  %
Danielle Smith 34,949 41.3 34,981 41.4 35,095 41.7 38,496 46.2 39,270 47.7 42,423 53.77
Travis Toews 24,831 29.4 25,054 29.7 25,593 30.4 26,592 31.9 30,794 37.4 36,480 46.23
Brian Jean 9,301 11.1 9,504 11.3 10,157 12.1 11,251 13.5 12,203 14.8 Eliminated
Rebecca Schulz 5,835 6.9 6,180 7.3 6,784 8.0 6,972 8.4 Eliminated
Todd Loewen 6,496 7.7 6,512 7.7 6,596 7.8 Eliminated
Rajan Sawhney 1,787 2.1 2,246 2.7 Eliminated
Leela Aheer 1,394 1.6 Eliminated
Total 84,593 100.00 84,405 100.00 84,225 100.00 83,317 100.00 82,267 100.00 78,903 100.00
% of Vote Share by Round

Opinion polling

UCP supporters
Graph of opinion polls for verified candidates


Polling firm Link Last date
of polling		 Sample
Size		 Margin
of error		 Leela Aheer Brian Jean Todd Loewen Rajan Sawhney Rebecca Schulz Danielle Smith Travis Toews Other
Mainstreet Research [p 1] September 28, 2022 5,327 ±1.2% 2.48% 12.37% 4.26% 1.07% 8.09% 41.79% 29.94% N/A
One Persuasion [p 2] September 12, 2022 1,792 ±2.3% – 10.4% 7.5% – 6.7% 42.5% 28.8% N/A
Mainstreet Research [p 3] September 8, 2022 1,247 ±2.8% 2.8% 20.2% 7.5% 0.6% 6.4% 43.9% 18.7% N/A
Léger [p 4] September 5, 2022 316 N/A 3% 31% 3% 2% 4% 27% 29% N/A
Léger [p 5] July 17, 2022 351 N/A <1% 20% 2% 0% 2% 22% 15% I don't know 31%
Raj Sherman 2%
Jon Horsman 1%
Someone else 5%
Mainstreet Research [p 6] July 17, 2022 304 N/A – 23.1% 2.2% 0.2% 0.9% 22.6% 13.7% Undecided 36.1%
Ric McIver 1.2%
Angus Reid [p 7] June 13, 2022 210 N/A – 33% 8% 2% 7% 34% 25% None 15%
Jason Nixon 7%
Other 7%
Leger [p 8] May 23, 2022 345 N/A – 22% – – – 18% 5% Don't know 37%
Someone else 14%
Doug Schweitzer 3%

All Albertans
Polling firm Link Last date
of polling		 Sample
Size		 Margin
of error		 Leela Aheer Brian Jean Todd Loewen Rajan Sawhney Rebecca Schulz Danielle Smith Travis Toews Other
Angus Reid [p 7] June 13, 2022 592 ± 4% – 23% 5% 2% 3% 24% 13% None 44%
Other 5%
Jason Nixon 3%
Leger [p 8] May 23, 2022 1,000 ± 3.1% – 19% – – – 14% 5% Don't know 43%
Someone else 17%
Doug Schweitzer 3%

Notes
  1. Smith was subsequently elected in a by-election in Brooks-Medicine Hat.
  2. Although the leadership vote officially lasted six rounds, only Smith and Toews had any mathematical chance of winning after the first round. This is because the remaining five candidates' combined vote total of 24,813 was less than Toews' 24,831.
  3. Although the leadership vote officially lasted six rounds, only Smith and Toews had any mathematical chance of winning after the first round. This is because the remaining five candidates' combined vote total of 24,813 was less than Toews' 24,831.
  4. Although the leadership vote officially lasted six rounds, only Smith and Toews had any mathematical chance of winning after the first round. This is because the remaining five candidates' combined vote total of 24,813 was less than Toews' 24,831.

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Opinion poll sources
  1. "UCP Leadership 2022 Polling Dashboard | iPolitics". www.ipolitics.ca. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
  2. Bell, Rick (September 16, 2022). "Bell: A new UCP leadership race poll, and yes, it's party members". Calgary Sun. Retrieved September 20, 2022. Note: poll commissioned by Smith Campaign.
  3. Green, Arthur (September 12, 2022). "EXCLUSIVE: Smith leads UCP poll with 44% support". Western Standard. Retrieved September 12, 2022.
  4. "UCP Leadership Ballot Poll September 2022" (PDF). Leger. September 9, 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 9, 2022. Retrieved September 9, 2022.
  5. "Provincial Poll" (PDF). Leger. July 22, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 24, 2022. Retrieved July 24, 2022.
  6. "Mainstreet Research Survey – Alberta" (PDF). iPolitics. July 21, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 22, 2022. Retrieved July 21, 2022.
  7. "Alberta Spotlight: Brian Jean, Danielle Smith claim early advantage in UCP leadership race to succeed Kenney". Angus Reid Institute. June 17, 2022. Archived from the original on June 18, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  8. "Post UCP Leadership Review Poll" (PDF). Leger. June 1, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 4, 2022. Retrieved June 5, 2022.
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