2023 Serowe West by-election

A by-election for the Botswana parliamentary constituency of Serowe West was held on 8 July 2023. The vacancy was caused by the expulsion on 21 April 2023 of the incumbent Member of Parliament (MP), Tshekedi Khama of the BPF, following his absence from the minimum required two consecutive meetings of the same session to trigger a by-election per the Standing Orders of the National Assembly.[1]

2023 Serowe West by-election
8 July 2023
Serowe West constituency
Turnout44.9% (Decrease 38.3 pp)
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Onalepelo Kedikilwe Moemedi Dijeng
Party BPF BDP
Popular vote 2,933 1,266
Percentage 66.9% 28.9%
Swing Increase11.5pp Decrease1.4pp
Boundary of Serowe West constituency
MP before election

Tshekedi Khama II
BPF

 Elected MP

Onalepelo Kedikilwe
BPF

The election was won by Onalepelo Kedikilwe of the Botswana Patriotic Front. The BPF's majority of 25.1 pp in the 2019 general election was increased to a majority of 37.7 pp in this by-election, further consolidating the BPF's hold on the constituency. This result makes it the highest result achieved by an opposition party in the constituency, breaking the previous 2019 record.

Background

Constituency

Serowe West lies in the Central District and is primarily rural, with the main settlement being the village of Serowe. The constituency is part of the three historically safe BDP seats that flipped to the BPF and had an average swing of 76.7pp towards the BPF.[2] This shift can be attributed to the fact that the BaNgwato tribe, of which the Khama family is the royal family, resides in this constituency and the surrounding Serowe North and Srowe South constituencies. Prior to Ian and Tshekedi Khama's departure from the BDP, the constituency consistently voted for the party by significant margins. However, following the fallout between Ian Khama and President Mokgweetsi Masisi, Khama encouraged people in the Serowe region to vote for the newly formed BPF, and this message strongly resonated with the locals.[3]

Tshekedi first became an MP for Serowe West in 2008 during a by-election that took place when his brother, Ian Khama, became the President of Botswana. Gomolemo Motswaledi initially expressed interest in contesting the constituency but was persuaded by the party to step aside for Tshekedi. Since then, Tshekedi was re-elected in the general elections of 2009, 2014, and 2019. In 2019, he became the first opposition candidate to win the constituency, breaking the ruling party's stronghold on the seat since independence in 1966. The constituency was previously represented by Seretse Khama, the founding President of Botswana and the father of both Ian and Tshekedi, from 1965 to 1974.

Trigger

On 21 March 2022, Khama, the younger brother of former president Ian Khama, along with his twin brother Anthony and wife Thea, were arrested by the Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DIS) for alleged corrupt deals involving their company, Seleka Springs.[4] As of now, they have not yet been formally charged. Following their arrest, they fled to South Africa to meet Ian, who is in self-imposed exile after evading the confiscation of illegally possessed firearms.[5]

According to Standing Order 16.2 of the National Assembly of Botswana, a Member of Parliament's (MP) seat becomes vacant if they are absent from the Assembly for two consecutive meetings during the same session without prior written permission from the Speaker:

For the purposes of the Constitution it is hereby prescribed that the seat of any Member of Parliament (MP) shall become vacant if, without the leave of the Speaker obtained in writing before the end of the meetings referred to in this paragraph, that Member is absent from the Assembly for two consecutive meetings occurring during the same session.

— Standing Order 16.2, National Assembly of Botswana

Having met the required criteria, Tshekedi Khama's seat in Serowe West was declared vacant on 21 April 2023 by the acting Speaker at the time, Pono Moatlhodi.[6] rior to his expulsion, Tshekedi's last virtual attendance in parliament was during the winter (July-August)[7] meeting of 2022. He failed to participate in the proceedings after the resumption of physical attendance in November 2022.

Candidates

Nominee
  • Onalepelo Kedikilwe

Eliminated in primary
  • James Kgalajwe
  • Gaotilwe Omphile
  • Mokgobolelo Mokgobelelo
  • Mmaletlhare Kgosikhumo
  • Monamodi Bagwasi
  • Chimbidzani Chimidza

Results
Botswana Patriotic Front primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
BPF Onalepelo Kedikilwe 443 44.1
BPF Gaotilwe Omphile 276 27.5
BPF James Kgalajwe 117 11.6
BPF Mokgobolelo Mokgobelelo 73 7.3
BPF Mmaletlhare Kgosikhumo 66 6.6
BPF Monamodi Bagwasi 22 2.2
BPF Chimbidzani Chimidza 8 0.8
Total votes 1,005 100.0

The two other parties, the BDP and the BCP, did not hold primaries. The BDP nominated Moemedi Dijeng as the party's candidate whilst the BCP nominated Sebusiso Ngwenya.[9]

Results
2023 Serowe West by-election[10]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
BPF Onalepelo Kedikilwe 2,933 66.9 +11.9
BDP Moemedi Dijeng 1,266 28.9 –1.4
BCP Sebusiso Ngwenya 103 2.3 New
Independent Kefilwe Koboto 82 1.9 New
Majority 1,667 37.7 +12.6
Turnout 4,422 44.9 –38.3
BPF hold Swing +6.7

Previous result
General election 2019: Serowe West[11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
BPF Tshekedi Khama 4,394 55.4 New
BDP Moemedi Dijeng 2,405 30.3 −47.3
UDC Rolent Gambule 749 9.4 −4.2
AP Leremela Bogosing 387 4.9 New
Majority 1,989 25.1 N/A
Turnout 7,935 83.4 +0.5
BPF hold Swing +51.4

References
  1. Bothoko, Pini (24 April 2023). "Tshekedi disqualified as MP". Mmegi. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  2. Seabo, Batlang; Nyenhuis, Robert (23 November 2021). "Botswana's 2019 General Elections: A Referendum on General Ian Khama". African Studies Review. 64 (4): 854–883. doi:10.1017/asr.2021.69. ISSN 0002-0206. S2CID 244539238.
  3. Basimanebotlhe, Tsaone (10 October 2022). "Serowe constituencies vulnerable as BPF rumpus continues". Mmegi Online. Retrieved 16 June 2023.
  4. Phakedi, Pearl (21 April 2023). "𝗧𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗱𝗶 𝗻𝗼 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗻 𝗠𝗣 – 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁𝗹𝗵𝗼𝗱𝗶". Weekend Post. Retrieved 16 June 2023.
  5. Reporter, Sunday Standard (5 April 2022). "Khama's absence, internal wrangling weakening BPF | Sunday Standard". Retrieved 16 June 2023.
  6. Bothoko, Pini (24 April 2023). "Tshekedi disqualified as MP". Mmegi. Retrieved 16 June 2023.
  7. "Meetings of Parliament". www.parliament.gov.bw. Retrieved 16 June 2023.
  8. "Onalepelo Kedikilwe wins BPF Primary Elections". Facebook. 12 June 2023. Retrieved 17 June 2023.
  9. "Nomination of candidates for the Serowe West Constituency has officially closed and the following were the nominated candidates". Facebook. 15 June 2023. Retrieved 17 June 2023.
  10. "BREAKING NEWS Onalepelo Kedikilwe of BPF WINS SEROWE WEST BY ELECTIONS". Facebook. 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  11. Report to the Minister for Presidential Affairs, Governance and Public Administration on the 2019 General Elections (PDF). Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). 2020.
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