Aegis system equipped vessels (ASEV)

The first of China's nuclear weapons tests took place in 1964,[2] and its first hydrogen bomb test occurred in 1967.[3] Tests continued until 1996,[4] when China signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) although the PRC is not a signatory of any multilateral nuclear arms limitation or reduction treaties.[5] The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF; Chinese: 中国人民解放军火箭军; pinyin: Zhōngguó Rénmín Jiěfàngjūn Huǒjiàn Jūn) controls China's arsenal of land-based ballistic missiles—both nuclear and conventional. The armed service branch was established on 1 July 1966 and made its first public appearance on 1 October 1984. The headquarters for operations is located at Qinghe, Beijing. The PLARF is under the direct command of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission (CMC).[6] The People's Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force (PLANSF) is the submarine service of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and controls submarine-launched ballistic missile forces of the PRC.[7]

In an online article dated 13 January 2023, research associate Timothy Wright of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote that PRC has "significantly" boosted its strategic nuclear capabilities with ongoing upgrades to its submarine-launched and land-based nuclear forces, noting recent confirmation from recent official statements and published analysis from the U.S. Department of Defense. The article also stated that the DoD raised its estimates of ICBM missile silos from 100 in 2022 to 300 in 2022 based on current trends. The DoD also estimated that the PRC had over 400 "operational" nuclear warheads in its inventory as of 2022 and could reach 1500 by 2035.[8]

Trajectories of North Korean missiles launched over Japan, 1998–2017

Range and altitude of North Korean missiles launched over Japan (2017)

North Korea showed an interest in developing nuclear weapons dating back to the 1950s.[9] The nuclear program can be traced back to about 1962, when North Korea committed itself to what it called "all-fortressization", which was the beginning of the hyper-militarized North Korea of today.[10] In 1963, North Korea asked the Soviet Union for help in developing nuclear weapons, but was refused. The Soviet Union agreed to help North Korea develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, including the training of nuclear scientists. Later, China, after its nuclear tests, similarly rejected North Korean requests for help with developing nuclear weapons.[11] The Korean People's Army Strategic Force (Korean: 조선인민군 전략군), is the military branch of the Korean People's Army that oversees North Korea's nuclear and conventional strategic missiles. It is mainly armed with surface-to-surface missiles of domestic design as well as older Soviet and Chinese models. The KPA Strategic Force was established in 1999 when several missile units under KPA Ground Force Artillery Command were re-organized into a single missile force reporting directly to the office of the Supreme Commander of the KPA via the General Staff.[12][13]

As of early 2020, North Korea's nuclear arsenal is estimated approximately 30 to 40 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven nuclear weapons per year.[14] North Korea has also stockpiled a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. In 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).[15] Since 2006, the country has been conducting a series of nuclear weapon tests at increasing levels of expertise and frequency, prompting the imposition of sanctions.[16] More recently, on September 9, 2022, North Korea passed a law to declare itself a nuclear weapons state and rejected any possibility of denuclearisation.[17] In December 2022, North Korea ground-tested a solid-propellant rocket motor for potential use on either a land-based or submarine-launched Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).[18]

As of 20 March 2020, North Korea has carried out 147 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test in 1984.[19] 15 were carried out under the rule of Kim Il Sung and 16 under Kim Jong Il.[20] Under Kim Jong Un, 119 tests have been undertaken as of December, 2019.[21] An additional 8 missiles in 2021 and 63 in 2022 were subsequently launched (See bar chart below.), and a total of 7 North Korean missiles flew over the Japanese archipelago since 1998 (See table below, and the map and graph on the right.).[18]

In its published overview for the Fisal Year 2023 budget, the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MOD) noted that nine ballistic missiles were launched on 4 August 2022 alone, with five landing within Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) while also noting the DPRK's new "hypersonic" Hwasong-17 ballistic missile system.[22] On 3 November 2022, North Korea reportedly fired at least one ballistic missile off its east coast, including one believed to be a long-range missile, that flew over and past Japan. The launch triggered the Japanese emergency broadcast system, which alerted residents in the prefectures of Miyagi, Yamagata, and Niigata to stay indoors.[23][24] Later, on 18 November 18, 2022, North Korea reportedly fired at least one ballistic missile into the sea on Friday, believed to be the first successful full flight of its Hwasong-17.[25] The missile landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.[26]

Through the end of March, North Korea has launched a combination of at least 2 long-range and 11 short-range ballistic missiles, as well as multiple cruise missile firings, in 2023 thus far, with the Hwasong-15 ICBM launched on 18 February 2023 travelling for approximately 989 kilometres (615 mi) at a "lofted angle" before landing in the sea just west of Japan.[27] On 13 April 2023, North Korea launched an additional missile, while residents of Hokkaido were told to seek immediate shelter following statements by Kim Jong-Un wherein he called for "more practical and offensive" capabilities.[28]

Note: Text, table, and graphics copied from List of North Korean missile tests; see that page's history for attribution.

Japan began developing its current ballistic missile (BDM) system starting in 2004.[29] On 19 December 2017, the Cabinet of Japan approved a plan to purchase two Aegis Ashore systems equipped with the AN/SPY-7(V)1, based on Lockheed Martin's Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) to increase Japan’s self-defence capability against North Korea, using SM-3 Block IIA missiles, and also could work with SM-6 interceptors capable of shooting down cruise missiles.[30][31][32] The installation sites are at a Ground Self-Defense Force training area in Araya District, Akita Prefecture and the Mutsumi training area in Hagi, Yamaguchi Prefecture (See Map, Red: BMD FPS-5 radar, Yellow: BMD FPS-3 Kai radar, Blue: Air Defense Group, Anchor: JMSDF Aegis destroyers).[33]

• 
  Initial locations of major JSDF BMD installations (2020)
• 
  U.S. Pacific Missile Range Facility
• 
  NATO's AABMDS site in Deveselu, Romania
• 
  NATO's AABMDS site in Redzikowo, Poland

The proposed Japanese Aegis Ashore program would have been comparable to the land-based Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense System (AABMDS) sites deployed by the U.S. in Romania (pictured) and Poland (pictured). Test installation was built at the U.S. Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii (pictured) in 2000s. A site in Deveselu, Romania is operational since 2016, while a site at Redzikowo, Poland was slated to become operational in 2022.[34][35]

On 30 July 2018, Japan picked Lockheed Martin Corp to build a $1.2 billion USD radar for two ground-based Aegis ballistic missile defense stations. These are meant to guard against missile strikes.[36] On the same day, Japan's Defense Ministry considered to withdrawing PAC-3 missile interceptor units from the country's northern and western region amid an easing of tensions with North Korea. Ministry officials noted that North Korea is less likely to fire ballistic missiles after it held a summit with the United States on the previous month. But the officials also said the ministry will maintain its order to destroy any incoming missiles. They added that the ministry will be ready to quickly redeploy the PAC-3 units if the situation changes.[37]

Japan's Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone and South Korea's Minister of Foreign Affairs Yu Myung-hwan agreed that the launch[38] of the North Korean Unha-2 satellite on April 5, 2009, violated United Nations resolutions 1695 and 1718, both adopted in 2006. Japan's cabinet examined approval of a JMSDF AEGIS BMD engagement in the event of a failure of the Taepondong launch.[39][40][41] The Japanese government also noted that it could bypass the Japanese Cabinet for an interception under Article 82, Section 2, Paragraph 3 of the Self-Defence Forces law.[42] In total, five AEGIS destroyers were deployed at that time.[43] Supplemental to SM-3 capability the Japanese system incorporates an airborne component. Together discrimination between platform tests and satellite launches is possible by analyzing the angle of ascent.[44]

On 15 June 2020, Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono announced that work had been halted on the deployment of the Aegis Ashore system because additional costs would be needed to ensure that residential buildings would not be hit by rocket boosters used to launch the missiles.[45] Later in the month Japan's National Security Council confirmed the cancellation of Aegis Ashore.[46] On 23 September 2020, Lockheed Martin noted the potential expense to convert the anti-aircraft (AA) system for maritime use since a revamp in the design is required.[47] The JMSDF has equipped four ships of the Kongo-class destroyers for Long-Range Surveillance Team (LRST) and engagement — JS Kongo, JS Chokai, JS Myoko, and JS Kirishima.[48][49]

BMD maneuvers (October 6, 2022)

JS Haguro（DDG-180）launching SM-3 Block IB missile (November 19, 2022)

The JMSDF currently operates 4 Kongō class, 2 Atago class, and 2 Maya class guided-missile destroyers as part of its "Aegis Afloat" program (See table below.).

On 6 October 2022, five warships from the United States, Japan, and South Korea held a multilateral ballistic missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan (pictured) as part of the military response to ongoing North Korean intermediate-range ballistic missile tests over the Japanese home islands.[50][51]

On 16 November 2022, the guided-missile destroyer Maya fired an SM-3 Block IIA missile, successfully intercepting the target outside the atmosphere in the first launch of the missile from a Japanese warship. Two days later, the Haguro likewise fired an SM-3 Block IB missile with a successful hit outside the atmosphere. Both test firings were conducted at the U.S. Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai Island, Hawaii, in cooperation with the U.S. Navy and U.S. Missile Defense Agency. This was the first time the two ships conducted SM-3 firings in the same time period, and the tests validated the ballistic missile defense capabilities of Japan’s newest Maya-class destroyers.[29][52]

On 22 February 2023, five warships from the United States, Japan, and South Korea held a multilateral ballistic missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan in response to the launch of a North Korean Hwasong-15 ballistic missile on 18 February 2023, landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Sea of Japan, in an area 125 miles west of the island of Ōshima, which lies 30 miles (48 km) west of the main island of Hokkaido. Two additional IBCBMs were subsequently launched on 20 February 2023, with both landing in the Sea of Japan off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.[53]

List of Aegis Afloat ships

Preliminary design postulated that the ASEV would be based on the Small Waterplane Area Twin Hull (SWATH) configuration used by Hibiki-class ocean surveillance ships, with the combined main deck area sufficient to accommodate the Aegis radar deckhouse and battery of SM-6 interceptor missile launchers.[59] Such a SWATH-based configuration would be comparable to the 1986 CGH-67 design study (pictured) by the then David W. Taylor Naval Ship Research and Development Center of the U.S. Navy's Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) albeit without the explicit BMD orientation.[61]

Original plans for the two ASEV ships called for a cruiser-sized warships with a standard displacement of 20,000 long tons (20,000 t) each, an overall length of 690 ft (210 m), and a beam of 130 ft (40 m) on a monohull configuration. The overall size offers enhanced habitability for its 110-person crew for extended deployments and relative simplicity in construction, and it is designed to provide a stable platform for its advanced sensors and weapon systems. Once completed, the two warships will be the largest surface combatant ships in service with the JMSDF, and according to Popular Mechanics, they will "arguably [be] the largest deployable surface warships in the world."[56][54][57][58]

However, in November 2022, both Kyodo News and Jiji Press quoted an unnamed senior official in Japan's Ministry of Defense who noted that the proposed ASEV warships might be downsized in a size similar to Maya-class destroyers as their original proposed beam significantly reduced speed and maneuverability, making the ships easier to detect and target by the enemy.[62][63][64] Later, on 23 December 2022, the Japanese MOD released additional 2023 budget and program guidance, including the first official illustration of the ASEV warship (See article info-box.), although no further details on ASEV ship dimensions were provided beyond the original facts and figures from the August 2022 release.[65][66][67][68] USNI news editor Sam LaGrone noted that the overall design of the ASEV warship was comparable to the U.S. Navy's next-generation DDG(X) guided-missile destroyer (pictured).[65]

According to its published budget overview, for Fiscal Year 2023, the Japanese Ministry of Defense allocated 22.8 billion yens ($1.654 billion USD) for the initial procurement of advanced components for the ASEV program in order to "significantly improved BMD capability capable of responding to lofted and simultaneous ballistic missiles, as well as expandability for responding to HGVs and other such threats."[69] In related news, in a statement released on April 4, 2023, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced the signing of four contracts worth 382.47 billion yens ($2.83 billion USD) last week with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for development of standoff defense weapon systems for the Japanese Self Defense Force (JSDF). This standoff defense capability is expected to provide the JSDF with long-range strike capabilities against ships and amphibious forces invading Japan, particularly at its remote islands, such as the disputed Senkaku Islands administered by Japan, and its southwestern islands.[70]

As a ship-based alternative to the land-based Aegis Ashore system, the Aegis system-equipped warships could be armed with the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) Sea-Based Terminal (SBT) system (pictured), as well as the J7.B Aegis Weapon System and Lockheed Martin’s SPY-7(V)1 multi-functional radar, initially contracted for Aegis Ashore. According to Lockheed Martin, J7.B is the integration of SPY-7 into J7 (BL9), the latest software currently installed on JMSDF’s Aegis-equipped guided missile destroyers.[59][71][72] The SPY-7(V)1 radar uses scaled equipment and software derived from the advanced Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) located in the Clear Space Force Station, Alaska, and operated by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA).[72]

In support of this objective, on 20 October 2022, the U.S. Department of State approved and the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified the United States Congress that Japan is set to be the first country after the United States to field the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) as part of a proposed $450 million USD Foreign Military Sale (FMS) arms package. Pending Congressional approval, Japan was conditionally approved to buy up to 32 of the Raytheon-built SM-6 Block I missiles. This notification is a follow-up of a 2017 decision from U.S. Department of Defense that conditionally approved Japan, South Korea, and Australia to buy SM-6 missile systems.[73][74]

The ASEV warships will be equipped to defend against hypersonic glide vehicles, as such new hypersonic missile designs are too evasive for current ballistic missile defense systems to reliably intercept.[54][57] Also, the two ships will be equipped with the upgraded sea-based version of the Type-12 anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) system capable of striking land and naval targets with a range of around 1,000 km (540 nmi; 621 mi).[54][75] Given the manpower requirements, non-BMD armament may be limited to such close-in self-defense weapon systems as Phalanx CIWS or SeaRAM.[59]

On 16 December 2022, Defense Buildup Program (防衛力整備計画) document announced a 110.4 billion yen ($820 million USD) budget allocation to modify the JMSDF's Aegis-equipped guided missiles destroyers to carry Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles (TLAM). Although it is not stated what specific modifications are to be undertaken, Lockheed Martin's Tactical Tomahawk Weapons Control System (TTWCS) is the likeliest system to be integrated into the Aegis destroyers.[76] The Japanese government had previously approached the U.S. government to purchase the U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile for attacking enemy bases. The Japanese government decided to purchase the Tomahawk cruise missile before their domestically-built improved range Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile systems started full-scale operation.[77] The intent behind the JMSDF acquiring both long-range cruise missile systems is to act as a deterrent to North Korea, with the weapons able to strike naval and land targets.[78]

In a tweet posted on 17 December 2022, Satō Masahisa, Director, Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense of the House of Councillors in the Diet, stated that the proposed ASEV warships would be capable of speeds in excess of 30 knots (56 km/h); Standard Missile 6 (SM6) and Evolved SeaSparrow Missile (ESSM) systems; 12 anti-ship standoff missiles; Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) and Engage-on-Remote (EoR) functions; and n0w 128 VLS cells.[1][79] On 23 December 2022, the Japanese Ministry of Defense released its 2023 budget and program guidance that featured the first official illustration of the ASEV warship, revealing that its missile arsenal will use the Mark 41 Vertical Launching System (Mk 41 VLS) grouped in two locations, forward of the bridge deckhouse and aft above the helicopter hangar.[65][66][67][68]

The ASEV warships will used the UNIted COmbined Radio aNtenna (UNICORN) NORA-50 integration mast, which has a bar-shaped dome that houses the antennas for tactical data link, Tactical Air Navigation System (TACAN), and communications. According to the Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA), UNICORN has a shape designed to reduce the radar cross section (RCS), which makes it stealthy. It is currently being installed on the Mogami-class frigates entering service or under construction, and there is a possibility that they will be considered for integration into the proposed Next-Generation Offshore Patrol Vessel program.[1] [80]

Given the manning and electrical requirements, the Aegis system equipped vessels (ASEV) may require a highly automated, low maintenance, all-electrical propulsion systems such as:

• Integrated electric propulsion (IEP), an all-electric marine propulsion system that uses gas turbines or diesel generators or both components to generate three-phase electricity to power electric motors turning either propellers or waterjet impellors (See schematic.), and it used on the U.S. Navy's Zumwalt-class destroyers and the Japanese icebreaker Shirace.
• Combined diesel and gas (CODAG) propulsion consists of diesel engines for cruising and gas turbines that can be switched on for high-speed transits, and it is used on the JMSDF's Hyūga class and Izumo class helicopter carriers as well as Mogami-class frigates.
• Combined diesel-electric and diesel (COGLAG) propulsion, a modification of the combined gas and gas (COdAG) propulsion system employing electric propulsion for low-speed cruising, that is used on the JMSDF's Maya class and Asahi class destroyers.

Given the lack of specific institutional expertise, technical support infrastructure, and political considerations, it is highly unlikely that the ASEV warships will use nuclear power for propulsion such as the Bechtel Corporation A1B nuclear reactor developed for the United States Navy's Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers to provide electrical power and propulsion. The released official illustration of the ASEV warship (pictured) displays a very prominent smokestack, strongly suggesting a non-nuclear propulsion plant in operation.

Neither ASEV warship has been officially named. Ships of the JMSDF are known as Japan Ships (護衛艦; Go'[e]i:-Kan) and are classified according to the warship type. Guided-missile destroyers (DDG) are named after the names of places in Japan, such as mountains and provinces while more conventional destroyers (DD) are named after natural phenomena in the heavens or the atmosphere as well as mountains, rivers or regions. It is not known if ASEV warship will have a new type designation such as guided-missile cruiser (CG) or ballistic missile defense ship (BMD Ship).

• Akihisa Nagashima (August 2021). Japan and Security: A Closer Look at the Operational Concept for "Aegis System-equipped Vessels" - Issues for Consideration (PDF) (Report). Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Archived from the original on June 24, 2023. Retrieved June 24, 2023. This paper was originally posted in Japanese by House of Representatives member Akihisa Nagashima on his blog (archived) on March 24, 2021 and has been translated into English by Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Japan Office with permission.{{cite report}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)

• "Budget for Fundamental Strengthening of Defense Capabilities FY Reiwa 5 (2023) Budget Overview" (PDF). Budget overview. Japanese Ministry of Defense. December 23, 2022. Retrieved 2023-01-09. in Japanese (防衛力整備計画).
• "Defense Programs and Budget of Japan FY Reiwa 5 (2023) Budget Overview: Budget for Fundamental Strengthening of Defense Capabilities" (PDF). Budget overview. Japanese Ministry of Defense. December 23, 2022. Retrieved 2023-01-09. In Japanese (防衛力抜本的強化「元年」予算).
• "Defense Buildup Program (DBP)" (PDF). Basis of Defense Policy. Japanese Ministry of Defense. 16 December 2022. Retrieved 2023-01-19. In English.
• "National Defense Strategy of Japan" (PDF). Basis of Defense Policy. Japanese Ministry of Defense. December 16, 2022. Retrieved 2023-01-13. In English.
• "National Security Strategy of Japan" (PDF). Basis of Defense Policy. Japanese Ministry of Defense. December 2022. Retrieved 2023-01-13. In English.

• "Fiscal Year 2023 Defense Programs and Budget of Japan" (PDF). USNI News Blog. United States Naval Institute. March 30, 2023. Retrieved 2023-01-09. English language version.
• Mary Beth D. Nikitin (January 23, 2003). Report to Congress on North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs In Focus) (PDF) (Report). Congressional Research Service (CRS). if10472. Retrieved January 26, 2023.

• Ackley, Dick (October 1986). "SABMIS – SUBMERGED". Submarine Review. n.p.: Naval Submarine League. pp. 95–87. Retrieved 23 February 2023. Registration required.
• Polmar, Norman (June 2003). "U.S. Navy: Ballistic Missile Defense…From the Sea". Proceedings. Vol. 129, no. 6. Annapolis, Maryland: United States Naval Institute. Retrieved 24 January 2023. Registration required.
• Schneider, Mark Bernard (July 1969). "SABMIS and the Future of Strategic Warfare". Proceedings. Vol. 95, no. 7. Annapolis, Maryland: United States Naval Institute. Retrieved 24 January 2023. Registration required.

• Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)
• Major Missile Defense Exercises

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• Japan Building Two Super-Sized Destroyers As An Alternative To Aegis Ashore – Secret Weapons – November 23, 20020
• Japan's Genius Idea to Builds New World's Largest Warships since the End of WWII – Weapons of The World – December 30, 2022
• Japan Navy Continues to Invest for Aegis System Equipped Vessels to Counterbalancing Threats – Public Nation – January 3, 2023