2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent independent governor Bill Walker was running for re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic nominee Mark Begich, a former U.S. Senator. However, Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018, and endorsed Begich. In spite of Walker dropping out, Dunleavy defeated Begich in what would become the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
Turnout49.8%
 
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote 145,631 125,739
Percentage 51.4% 44.4%

Dunleavy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Begich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%     70–80%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

 Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

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Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.[2]

Declared
  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator[3][4]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010[5]

Polling
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Begich		 Les
Gara		 Chris
Tuck		 Bill
Wielechowski		 Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017 205 ± 2.2% 42% 15% 3% 8% 32%
– 25% 5% 19% 51%
49% – 5% 12% 34%
43% 15% – 8% 34%
44% 19% 4% – 32%

Results
Results by state house district:
  Begich—80–90%
  Begich—70–80%
  Begich—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 33,451 85.3
Libertarian William Toien 5,790 14.8
Total votes 39,241 100.0

Declared
  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative[7][8]

Withdrawn

Results
Results by state house district:
  Call—80–90%
  Call—70–80%
  Call—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debra Call 34,291 100.0
Total votes 34,291 100.0

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon[5]
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor[10]

[11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Dunleavy		 Scott
Hawkins		 Mead
Treadwell		 Other Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 7% 19% 3% 25%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
Binkley		 Mike
Dunleavy		 Peter
Miccici		 Joe
Miller		 Bill
Walker		 Other Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017 281 ± 2.2% 7% 6% 4% 25% 19% 3%[20] 36%
9% 8% 6% 29% – 4%[21] 46%
8% 10% 5% – 25% 4%[21] 48%
– – – 33% 21% – 46%

Results
Results by state house district:
  Dunleavy—80–90%
  Dunleavy—70–80%
  Dunleavy—60–70%
  Dunleavy—50–60%
  Dunleavy—40–50%
  Dunleavy—30–40%
  Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Dunleavy 43,802 61.5
Republican Mead Treadwell 22,780 32.0
Republican Michael Sheldon 1,640 2.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu 1,064 1.5
Republican Thomas Gordon 884 1.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 499 0.7
Republican Darin Colbry 416 0.6
Total votes 71,195 100.0

Declared

Declined

Results
Results by state house district:
  Meyer—50–60%
  Meyer—40–50%
  Meyer—30–40%
  Meyer—<30%
  Grunwald—<30%
  Grunwald—30–40%
  Grunwald—40–50%
  Stevens—<30%
  Stevens—50–60%
  Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Meyer 23,838 35.8
Republican Edie Grunwald 18,097 27.1
Republican Gary Stevens 8,123 12.2
Republican Lynn Gattis 6,156 10.4
Republican Sharon Jackson 5,394 8.1
Republican Stephen Wright 4,321 6.5
Total votes 66,671 100.0

Independents

Withdrew

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day).[40][41] However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.[42]

Debates
Dates Location Dunleavy Begich Link
October 25, 2018 Anchorage, Alaska Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Lean R (flip) October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[44] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[45] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[46] Tilt R (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[48] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[49] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News[50][lower-alpha 1] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[51] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Governing[52] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements
Mark Begich (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
Federal politicians
State and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Alaska Native Corporation
Bill Walker (I) (withdrew) (endorsed Begich)
Organizations

Polling
with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Walker (I)		 Mike
Dunleavy (R)		 Mark
Begich (D)		 Billy
Toien (L)		 Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 8% 43% 42% 3% – 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 5% 48% 44% – – 3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 43% 26% – – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018 645 – 24% 43% 23% – – 9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 47% 23% – – 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 44% 29% – – 4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 26% 36% 24% – 2% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 28% 36% 22% – – 15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 28% 32% 28% – – 12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 23% 38% 33% – – 6%
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Begich (D)		 Mike
Dunleavy (R)		 Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 55% 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 50% 3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 46% 44% –
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 53% 42% 5%
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Walker (I)		 Mike
Dunleavy (R)		 Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 2%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 53% 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 54% 5%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 47% 43% –
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 51% 44% 5%
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) February 26 – March 4, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 41% 47% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) February 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 33% 31%
with Bill Walker and Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Walker (I)		 Mark
Begich (D)		 Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 42% 16%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 41% 18%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 46% 15%

Results
2018 Alaska gubernatorial election[83]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Dunleavy 145,631 51.44% +5.56%
Democratic Mark Begich 125,739 44.41% +44.41%
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent; withdrawn) 5,757 2.03% −46.07%
Libertarian William Toien 5,402 1.91% −1.30%
Write-in 605 0.21% −0.11%
Total votes 283,134 100.00% N/A
Turnout 284,891 49.82%
Registered electors 571,851
Republican gain from Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

    References
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    2. Bohrer, Becky (June 2, 2018). "Former Sen. Begich to challenge Walker for Alaska governor". Associated Press.
    3. Herz, Nathaniel (April 30, 2016). "Fear of a Begich bid for governor looms large over Alaska GOP convention". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
    4. Herz, Nathaniel (May 28, 2017). "As some drop hints about running for Alaska governor in 2018, Walker remains a wild card". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved May 29, 2017.
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    6. "GEMS ELECTION RESULTS". www.elections.alaska.gov. Retrieved February 19, 2023.
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    19. "ADN reports Ben Stevens contemplating run for Governor". Alaska Dispatch News & KINY Radio. August 20, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
    20. Mike Chennault 3%
    21. Mike Chennault 4%
    22. "Lynn Gattis files for lieutenant governor - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. August 4, 2017. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    23. Hickman, Matt (September 21, 2017). "Grunwald, mother of murdered Palmer teen, joins race for Lt. Governor". Alaska Frontiersman. Retrieved December 9, 2017.
    24. Downing, Suzanne (April 12, 2018). "GOP Sharon Jackson files for lieutenant governor". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
    25. Maguire, Sean (September 7, 2017). "State Senator Kevin Meyer files to be candidate for Lt. Governor, no running mate in mind". KTUU-TV. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
    26. Desroches, Kayla (August 1, 2017). "State Sen. Gary Stevens files to run for lieutenant governor". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
    27. Brooks, James (August 2, 2017). "Kodiak senator is first to seek lieutenant governor's office". Juneau Empire. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
    28. "They are running on principle – just ask them". March 15, 2018.
    29. Manning, Phillip (July 19, 2017). "Senator David Wilson files for lieutenant governor race". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    30. Manning, Phillip (July 20, 2017). "Senator David Wilson says he's not running for Lt. Governor, he filed by accident". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    31. Baird, Austin (July 20, 2017). "Freshman senator launches bid for lieutenant governor, scraps campaign a day later". KTUU-TV. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
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    36. Zak, Annie (October 19, 2018). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 20, 2018.
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    38. Zak, Annie (October 19, 2018). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 19, 2018.
    39. Kelly, Caroline. "Alaska Gov. Bill Walker suspends re-election bid". CNN. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
    40. Hanlon, Tegan (October 19, 2018). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News.
    41. Johnson, Kirk (October 19, 2018). "Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska, Suspends Campaign Amid Sinking Polls". The New York Times. Retrieved October 19, 2018.
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    56. Beltrami, Vince (October 22, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaska AFL–CIO.
    57. Parker, Tim (October 23, 2018). "NEA-Alaska Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". NEA-Alaska Political Action Committee on Education.
    58. Cler, Jessica (July 27, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Votes Endorses Mark Begich for Governor of Alaska". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii.
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    62. Donald J. Trump. ".@MikeDunleavyGov will make a fantastic Governor of Alaska. Mike is for Energy and Jobs, is tough on Crime, loves our Vets and our Great Second Amendment. Mike has my Complete and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
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    70. Suzanne Downing (March 5, 2018). "Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …". Must Read Alaska.
    71. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "I am honored to receive the endorsement of General Joe Ralston. He has been trusted with leading the Alaskan Command, NATO, and serving on the Joint Chiefs. His trust in me is humbling and inspiring". Facebook.
    72. Suzanne Downing (November 2, 2018). "Mao Tosi throws support to Dunleavy". Must Read Alaska.
    73. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Many of us live in Alaska for the unmatched sporting opportunities. I'm proud to earn the endorsement of the Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance, which works to preserve Alaska's fishing, hunting and trapping outdoor heritage traditions". Facebook.
    74. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "The Alaska Outdoor Council works tirelessly for the preservation of outdoor pursuits in Alaska, and conservation of the habitats upon which they depend. I am proud to receive their endorsement in the primary". Facebook.
    75. Kortnie Horazdovsky (October 8, 2018). "State public safety union endorses Dunleavy, Anchorage officers endorse Begich". KTUU.com.
    76. Suzanne Downing (October 31, 2018). "Alaska Forestry Association endorses Dunleavy". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018.
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    80. "Centrist Project endorses Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK)". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
    81. Zak, Annie (August 25, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.
    82. Zak, Annie (August 27, 2018). "NEA-Alaska endorses Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.
    83. "2018 General Elections. Official results". elections.alaska.gov. Retrieved February 19, 2023.
    Official gubernatorial campaign websites
    Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
    Alaska Division of Elections
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