2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent independent governor Bill Walker was running for re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic nominee Mark Begich, a former U.S. Senator. However, Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018, and endorsed Begich. In spite of Walker dropping out, Dunleavy defeated Begich in what would become the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018
Turnout49.8%
 
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote 145,631 125,739
Percentage 51.4% 44.4%


Dunleavy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Begich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%     70–80%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.[2]

Declared

  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator[3][4]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010[5]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Begich
Les
Gara
Chris
Tuck
Bill
Wielechowski
Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017 205 ± 2.2% 42% 15% 3% 8% 32%
25% 5% 19% 51%
49% 5% 12% 34%
43% 15% 8% 34%
44% 19% 4% 32%

Results

Results by state house district:
  Begich—80–90%
  Begich—70–80%
  Begich—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 33,451 85.3
Libertarian William Toien 5,790 14.8
Total votes 39,241 100.0

Declared

  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative[7][8]

Withdrawn

Results

Results by state house district:
  Call—80–90%
  Call—70–80%
  Call—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debra Call 34,291 100.0
Total votes 34,291 100.0

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon[5]
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor[10]

[11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Dunleavy
Scott
Hawkins
Mead
Treadwell
Other Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 7% 19% 3% 25%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Binkley
Mike
Dunleavy
Peter
Miccici
Joe
Miller
Bill
Walker
Other Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017 281 ± 2.2% 7% 6% 4% 25% 19% 3%[20] 36%
9% 8% 6% 29% 4%[21] 46%
8% 10% 5% 25% 4%[21] 48%
33% 21% 46%

Results

Results by state house district:
  Dunleavy—80–90%
  Dunleavy—70–80%
  Dunleavy—60–70%
  Dunleavy—50–60%
  Dunleavy—40–50%
  Dunleavy—30–40%
  Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Dunleavy 43,802 61.5
Republican Mead Treadwell 22,780 32.0
Republican Michael Sheldon 1,640 2.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu 1,064 1.5
Republican Thomas Gordon 884 1.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 499 0.7
Republican Darin Colbry 416 0.6
Total votes 71,195 100.0

Declared

Declined

Results

Results by state house district:
  Meyer—50–60%
  Meyer—40–50%
  Meyer—30–40%
  Meyer—<30%
  Grunwald—<30%
  Grunwald—30–40%
  Grunwald—40–50%
  Stevens—<30%
  Stevens—50–60%
  Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Meyer 23,838 35.8
Republican Edie Grunwald 18,097 27.1
Republican Gary Stevens 8,123 12.2
Republican Lynn Gattis 6,156 10.4
Republican Sharon Jackson 5,394 8.1
Republican Stephen Wright 4,321 6.5
Total votes 66,671 100.0

Independents

Withdrew

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day).[40][41] However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.[42]

Debates

Dates Location Dunleavy Begich Link
October 25, 2018 Anchorage, Alaska Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Lean R (flip) October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[44] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[45] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[46] Tilt R (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[48] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[49] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News[50][lower-alpha 1] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[51] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Governing[52] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Mark Begich (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
Federal politicians
State and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Alaska Native Corporation
Bill Walker (I) (withdrew) (endorsed Begich)
Organizations

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Walker (I)
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Mark
Begich (D)
Billy
Toien (L)
Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 8% 43% 42% 3% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 5% 48% 44% 3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 43% 26% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018 645 24% 43% 23% 9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 47% 23% 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 44% 29% 4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 26% 36% 24% 2% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 28% 36% 22% 15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 28% 32% 28% 12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 23% 38% 33% 6%
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Begich (D)
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 55% 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 50% 3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 46% 44%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 53% 42% 5%
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Walker (I)
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 2%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 53% 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 54% 5%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 47% 43%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 51% 44% 5%
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) February 26 – March 4, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 41% 47% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) February 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 33% 31%
with Bill Walker and Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Walker (I)
Mark
Begich (D)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 42% 16%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 41% 18%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 46% 15%

Results

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election[83]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Dunleavy 145,631 51.44% +5.56%
Democratic Mark Begich 125,739 44.41% +44.41%
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent; withdrawn) 5,757 2.03% −46.07%
Libertarian William Toien 5,402 1.91% −1.30%
Write-in 605 0.21% −0.11%
Total votes 283,134 100.00% N/A
Turnout 284,891 49.82%
Registered electors 571,851
Republican gain from Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

    References

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    21. Mike Chennault 4%
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    74. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "The Alaska Outdoor Council works tirelessly for the preservation of outdoor pursuits in Alaska, and conservation of the habitats upon which they depend. I am proud to receive their endorsement in the primary". Facebook.
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    81. Zak, Annie (August 25, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.
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    Official gubernatorial campaign websites
    Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
    Alaska Division of Elections
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