Campbell Cavasso

In 1984, Cavasso was first elected to the Hawaii State House of Representatives, representing District 20, which included Waimanalo in Honolulu County.[7] The district had previously been represented by Democrat (and future US Senator) Mazie Hirono, constituting a pickup for the GOP.[7] Cavasso was re-elected to the seat in 1986 and 1988.[7] While initially a candidate for re-election in 1990,[8] he eventually decided not to run, and was succeeded by Democrat Jackie Young.[7] Fivethirtyeight retrospectively remarked that it was through his time in the state legislature that Cavasso established his reputation as "a respectable politician" until his "legacy was overshadowed as he gained a reputation as a perennial loser".[9]

In 2002, he sought the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii. He finished third with 10,085 votes (13.88%), behind television news anchor Dalton Tanonaka, who took 27,142 votes (37.36%), and former Circuit Court judge Duke Aiona, who won the primary with 35,422 votes (48.76%).[10] Aiona thus became the running mate of former Maui Mayor Linda Lingle; the ticket won with 51 percent of the vote in the November election.[11]

In 2004, Cavasso challenged seven-term Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye

In 2004, Cavasso ran for the Republican nomination to challenge eight-term Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye. He stated that he decided to run in July 2004, following Inouye's vote against the Federal Marriage Amendment, which would ban gay marriage at the federal level.[12] He prevailed in the Republican primary, winning 21,645 votes for 49.2 percent of all ballots cast, against three competitors.[13] Inouye emerged from the Democratic primary with only token opposition, meaning that Inouye and Cavasso would face each other in the November election (as well as independent candidate Jim Brewer and Libertarian candidate Jeff Mallan).[13] During the campaign, Cavasso contended that Inouye was too liberal for Hawaii, and that the Senator's positions on issues like abortion and gay marriage (both of which he supported) were "out of touch" with what Hawaiians wanted.[14] He also argued that Inouye had made Hawaii too dependent on federal funding, and promised that if elected, he would seek to position the state as "a technology center and a bridge between Asia and the mainland".[12] He also voiced support for Bush's tax cuts and invasion of Iraq, both of which Inouye opposed, and the United States PATRIOT Act, which Cavasso indicated in a questionnaire did not "go too far" in his view.[12][15]

On Election Day, Inouye won 313,629 votes (75.51%) to Cavasso's 87,172 (20.99%).[16] Exit polling by CNN found that Cavasso won a majority among Republicans and self-identified conservatives, as well as losing by only one point among those who strongly approved of Bush's job performance, while significantly trailing Inouye among most other demographics.[17] Despite his loss, Cavasso speculated that he nonetheless impacted the balance of power in the Senate, by forcing Inouye to devote resources to his own campaign and therefore lessening his ability to help fellow Democrats, such as Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, who narrowly lost re-election the same year.[18]

Cavasso again ran for the U.S. Senate again in 2010, winning the Republican primary with 23,033 votes (66.94%) against two opponents.[19] Cavasso was regarded as the underdog in the general election, including by the candidate himself; in one television spot to promote his campaign, he jokingly referred to himself as "crazy" for again taking on Inouye, who had served eight terms in the Senate and continued to be widely popular in the state.[20] Cavasso had a severe fundraising deficit compared to Inouye, having raised $220,000 (much of it self-funded) to Inouye's $5.2 million.[20] Inouye ultimately outraised Cavasso by a ratio of 25 to 1.[2] Cavasso campaigned on a platform of fiscal restraint and limited government, criticizing Inouye for his support of the 2008 bailouts and of congressional earmarks and commenting that the nation's financial state was as "crazy" as his own underdog campaign.[20][21] Polling found Cavasso trailing Inouye by a large margin, although one poll — conducted by Rasmussen Reports the month before the election — found him only thirteen points behind his Democratic opponent, regarded as a much closer-than-expected margin.[22][23]

Cavasso ultimately received 79,939 votes, or 21.6 percent of all ballots cast; Inouye received over 277,000 votes, winning by over 53 percentage points. The poll which had indicated a significantly closer contest was later deemed by Fivethirtyeight the "worst poll" since at least 1998 in terms of disparity between polling data and election result.[24][25] Cavasso later reported that Inouye had phoned him after the election to tell him that he had "enjoyed" Cavasso's campaign.[26]

In December 2012, Senator Daniel Inouye passed away. His ninth term was not filled out, so Hawaii governor Neil Abercrombie had to appoint a replacement until a special election could be held in 2014.[27] Inouye's dying wish was that his successor be Representative Colleen Hanabusa; however, Abercrombie instead appointed lieutenant governor Brian Schatz to Inouye's seat, citing Hanabusa's seat on the House Armed Services Committee and "the overall best interest of the party" as his considerations.[27][28] By October 2013, Cavasso had indicated that he planned to run for the seat, and he officially announced his candidacy in April 2014.[29][30] Cavasso easily won the Republican nomination in the August primary, receiving over 72 percent of the vote and leading his nearest competitor, John P. Roco, by 60 percentage points.[31] Schatz narrowly won the Democratic primary against Hanabusa, prevailing by under one percentage point and leading to speculation that Hurricane Iselle might have impacted the result.[32]

This set up a general election matchup between Cavasso and Schatz, as well as Libertarian nominee Michael Kokoski, a social worker.[31][33] Schatz was widely regarded as the presumptive victor, given the state's heavy Democratic lean as well as polls that showed him leading by between 25 and 50 percentage points.[32][2][34] Bloomberg Businessweek included the race among its list of the "7 Least Competitive Races" of the cycle.[35] However, Cavasso argued that he was in a better position to win the election than in his two prior campaigns, because Schatz had been appointed by an unpopular governor (Abercrombie lost the Democratic nomination for re-election in 2014 to an underfunded opponent, state legislator David Ige) and because Schatz's nomination had gone against Inouye's dying wish.[2] During the general election, Cavasso stressed the issue of Hawaii's high cost of living and announced that he planned to fight for the repeal of regulations which he regarded as burdensome to businesses in the state; he named the high cost of living to be the biggest issue facing Hawaii.[3] He also emphasized his socially conservative positions on issues such as gay marriage, marijuana legalization, and abortion.[2] He created a series of short YouTube videos to increase name recognition and share his message with voters.[36] Cavasso also called for a series of debates between himself and Schatz, although Schatz declined the invitations, leading Cavasso to at one point inquire, "Where is Schatz? Is he ill?"[37][38]

In the general election, Schatz prevailed with 246,827 votes (69.78 percent) to Cavasso's 98,006 and Kokoski's 8,941. Despite his loss, Cavasso's vote total and vote share were both higher than in either of his previous Senate campaigns.[39][40][41] In an Associated Press interview following the result, Cavasso said that he hoped that Schatz would work with the Republican majority in the Senate on issues impacting Hawaiians, such as defense and trade. He also expressed hope that voters would continue to consider the "family and conservative values I have spoken for in this election".[28]

During his 2018 bid for the House of Representatives, Cavasso spoke favorably of President Donald Trump's tenure

On January 8, 2018, Hanabusa formally announced her candidacy for governor in the 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election, challenging incumbent Governor Ige in the Democratic primary.[42] This created an open seat in Hawaii's 1st congressional district for the 2018 election.[42] Cavasso announced his candidacy for the seat, and ran in the Republican primary against businessman and anti-abortion activist Raymond Vinole.[43][44] In the August 11 primary, Cavasso prevailed with 10,564 votes, about 82 percent of all ballots cast.[43]

In the general election, Cavasso faced Democratic nominee (and former congressman) Ed Case, Libertarian candidate Michelle Tippens, Green candidate Zach Burd, and nonpartisan candidate Calvin Griffin.[43] Cavasso's campaign focused on technology-based campaign methods, including social media; Cavasso remarked that the campaign was the most relaxing and fun he'd worked on.[45][46] Cavasso told KHON that his objective was to form a winning coalition of Republicans, independents, and conservative Democrats.[47] In an interview with Hawaii News Now, he remarked that "there is a sense we got this one" (election) and that he believed Hawaiians wanted a stronger Republican Party.[46] During the campaign, Cavasso praised President Donald Trump's leadership, particularly in relation to his diplomacy with North Korea and his handling of the economy, and was critical of Hawaii Democratss' behavior during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings.[46] He also voiced skepticism of man-made climate change and expressed worry that further environmental regulations could increase gasoline prices and hurt Hawaii.[18] He stated that, if elected, he would support Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio for Speaker of the House.[6] Cavasso noted that Republicans currently held the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, and argued that it would benefit Hawaii to have a member of Congress belonging to the majority party.[18]

On October 10, 2018, KITV hosted a debate between the two major-party candidates, focusing on congressional handling of the sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.[48] The two candidates also both attended a forum hosted by the Grassroots Institute of Hawaii at the Pacific Club, where Cavasso criticized Senator Hirono for her handling of the Kavanaugh allegations, calling her "entirely out of order" for telling men to "shut up and step up" on issues of sexual assault.[49][50] Cavasso reiterated his opposition to the legalization of marijuana, arguing that the opioid epidemic demonstrated that legalization would be counterproductive.[49][50] He criticized the Affordable Care Act as leading to higher health care costs, and said he would not support Native Hawaiian sovereignty, arguing that they would not be well served by it and quoting a Hawaiian king as saying "we are all of one blood".[49] On Election Day, Cavasso received 42,498 votes, just over 23 percent of all ballots cast, coming in second place behind Case.[51]