2018 Ohio gubernatorial election

The 2018 Ohio gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Ohio, concurrently with the election of Ohio's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various Ohio and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor John Kasich was term-limited and could not seek re-election for a third consecutive term.

2018 Ohio gubernatorial election[1]

November 6, 2018
Turnout57.52% Increase17.30pp
 
Nominee Mike DeWine Richard Cordray
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jon Husted Betty Sutton
Popular vote 2,235,825 2,070,046
Percentage 50.4% 46.7%

DeWine:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cordray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No votes

Governor before election

John Kasich
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike DeWine
Republican

Republicans nominated Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, while Democrats nominated former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray. This was the second contest between DeWine and Cordray, following the 2010 attorney general election, which DeWine won, 47.5% to 46.3%.

In 2018, DeWine defeated Cordray 50.4% to 46.7%, in what was considered a minor upset. Despite Cordray's loss, he became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win Cincinnati's Hamilton County since Dick Celeste in 1982. Likewise, DeWine became the first Republican to win in the historically Democratic Monroe County in a gubernatorial election since 2002 as the county took a sharp turn to the right. With Democratic senator Sherrod Brown winning re-election in the same year, this was the first election since 1974 in which Ohio simultaneously voted for a governor and senator of opposite parties.

DeWine and Husted took office on January 14, 2019.

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Endorsements

Mike DeWine
Notable individuals
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State representatives
County parties
State parties
Organizations
  • Buckeye Firearms Association[36]
Newspapers
Jim Renacci (withdrawn)
Organizations
  • Asian American GOP Coalition[39]
  • Bikers for Trump[40]
  • Citizens for Trump[40]
Notable individuals
Mary Taylor
U.S. Senators
Governors
Lieutenant Governors
Statewide Officials
Notable Individuals
State Senators
State Representatives
County Parties
Party leaders
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
Mary
Taylor
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University April 24 – May 2, 2018 323 52% 24% 25%
Remington Research Group (R-Taylor) April 10, 2018 1,064 ± 3.1% 42% 32% 26%
Fallon Research April 4–7, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 43% 26% 31%
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 541 ± 5.8% 50% 18% 31%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) Archived 2018-03-03 at the Wayback Machine February 17, 2018 1,152 ± 3.0% 61% 39%
35% 16% 15% 33%
Fallon Research January 16–19, 2018 286 54% 14% 32%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
Jon
Husted
Jim
Renacci
Mary
Taylor
Undecided
Axis Research (R-Taylor) August 13–15, 2017 602 ± 4.1% 36% 20% 8% 17% 19%
The Tarrance Group (R) July 24–26, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 42% 18% 5% 11% 24%
49% 29% 21%
Luntz Global June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% 13% 3% 8%
Gravis Marketing April 27 – May 2, 2017 686 ± 2.7% 31% 14% 6% 10% 40%
The Tarrance Group (R) January 23–26, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 47% 18% 4% 10% 22%

Results

Results by county:
  DeWine—70–80%
  DeWine—60–70%
  DeWine—50–60%
  Taylor—50–60%
Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike DeWine 494,766 59.8
Republican Mary Taylor 332,273 40.2
Total votes 827,039 100.0

Democratic primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify for ballot

  • Jon Heavey, physician[74]
  • Dave Kiefer, former Wayne County Commissioner and Republican candidate for state representative in 2016[75]

Withdrew

Endorsements

Richard Cordray
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Representatives
Mayors
City Council members
County officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Notable individuals
Newspapers
Dennis Kucinich
Organizations
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
County officials
City Council Members
Notable individuals
Newspapers
Joe Schiavoni
Political organizations
Labor unions
Notable individuals
Connie Pillich (withdrawn)
Governors
  • Ed Rendell, (former) Governor of Pennsylvania and (former) Democratic National Committee Chairman
State Representatives
Mayors
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Betty Sutton (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Nan Whaley (withdrawn)
Mayors
City Council members
County officials
Labor unions
  • Dayton Building & Construction Trades Council[119]
  • IUE-CWA – International Union of Electronic, Electrical, Salaried, Machine and Furniture Workers[144]
  • Ohio State Council of Machinists[145]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Cordray
Dennis
Kucinich
Bill
O'Neill
Connie
Pillich
Joe
Schiavoni
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University April 24 – May 2, 2018 333 31% 15% 6% 6% 41%
Fallon Research April 4–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 28% 13% 3% 5% 1%[upper-alpha 1] 51%
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 509 ± 5.3% 21% 21% 4% 5% 3%[upper-alpha 2] 46%
Fallon Research January 16–19, 2018 248 23% 16% 3% 2% 4% 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Cordray
Connie
Pillich
Joe
Schiavoni
Betty
Sutton
Nan
Whaley
Undecided
Luntz Global June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 17% 9% 20% 21% 10%
Gravis Marketing April 27 – May 2, 2017 558 ± 2.7% 8% 12% 13% 67%

Results

Results by county:
  Cordray—70–80%
  Cordray—60–70%
  Cordray—50–60%
  Cordray—40–50%
  Schiavoni—40–50%
  Schiavoni—60–70%
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Richard Cordray 423,264 62.3
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 155,694 22.9
Democratic Joe Schiavoni 62,315 9.2
Democratic Bill O'Neill 22,196 3.3
Democratic Paul Ray 9,373 1.4
Democratic Larry Ealy 6,896 1.0
Total votes 679,738 100.0

Libertarian primary

Nominated

  • Travis Irvine, filmmaker and writer[146]
    • Running mate: Todd Grayson[147]

Withdrew

  • Bruce Jaynes, entrepreneur
  • Stephen Quinn, student

Green primary

Gadell-Newton

Nominated

  • Constance Gadell-Newton, attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016[148]
    • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Richard Cordray (D)
Former federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Representatives
Mayors
City Council members
County officials
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike DeWine (R)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Debates

Host
network/sponsors
Location Date Link(s) Possible Participants
Richard
Cordray (D)
Mike
DeWine (R)
Travis Irvine (L) Constance Gadell-Newton (G)
WHIO-TV University of Dayton September 19, 2018 [184] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited
WCMH-TV Marietta College October 1, 2018 [185] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited
Ohio Debate Commission Cleveland State University October 8, 2018 [186] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited

[187]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[188] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[189] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[190] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[191] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[192] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[193] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[194] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[195][lower-alpha 1] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[196] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[197] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine
(R)
Richard
Cordray
(D)
Travis
Irvine
(L)
Constance
Gadell-
Newton (G)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 923 43% 48% 5% 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–4, 2018 1,948 ± 2.2% 42% 46% 7% 5%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Cygnal (R) October 30–31, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% 9%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 43% 48% 9%
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 566 ± 4.3% 46% 49% 2% 3%
Baldwin Wallace University October 19–27, 2018 1,051 ± 3.8% 39% 39% 4% 2% 16%
41% 42% 17%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine October 4–8, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 46% 2% 0% 0%[upper-alpha 3] 10%
Baldwin Wallace University September 8 – October 8, 2018 1,017 ± 3.5% 40% 37% 4% 3% 15%
42% 39% 19%
University of Akron September 10 – October 4, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 36% 27%
Ipsos September 13–21, 2018 1,074 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 2% 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 18–20, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 49% 44% 8%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 5.0% 44% 44% 3% 3% <1% 6%
47% 47% 1% 6%
796 RV ± 4.2% 42% 43% 4% 4% 1% 6%
47% 47% 1% 6%
Baldwin Wallace University September 5–15, 2018 1,048 ± 3.6% 42% 37% 21%
Morning Consult September 2–11, 2018 1,592 ± 2.0% 39% 38% 23%
Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio) August 31 – September 4, 2018 822 ± 3.0% 45% 43% 6% 3%
43% 43% 14%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) Archived 2018-07-16 at the Wayback Machine June 30 – July 10, 2018 1,485 ± 3.0% 42% 38% 3% 17%
Marist College June 17–22, 2018 778 ± 4.4% 46% 42% 2% 11%
Quinnipiac University June 7–12, 2018 1,082 ± 3.7% 40% 42% 2% 14%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-07-29 at the Wayback Machine June 6–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 36% 43% 3% 2% 16%
America First Action (R) May 29–31, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 38% 10%
Fallon Research May 21–25, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 40% 34% 1% 3%[upper-alpha 4] 22%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) May 6–7, 2018 618 ± 3.9% 39% 44% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) April 25–26, 2018 770 ± 3.5% 38% 47% 14%
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% 47% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 45% 44% 11%
Fallon Research January 16–19, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 49% 28% 23%
Luntz Global June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 55% 31% 14%
Hypothetical polling
with DeWine and Kucinich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine (R)
Dennis
Kucinich (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% 51% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 48% 37% 14%
with DeWine and Pillich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
DeWine (R)
Connie
Pillich (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 47% 35% 18%
with Jon Husted
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Husted (R)
Richard
Cordray (D)
Undecided
Luntz Global June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 47% 35% 18%
with generic Republican and Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University February 28 – March 9, 2018 1,011 ± 3.0% 37% 32%

Results

Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike DeWine 2,235,825 50.39% -13.25%
Democratic Richard Cordray 2,070,046 46.68% +13.65%
Libertarian Travis Irvine 79,985 1.81% N/A
Green Constance Gadell-Newton 49,475 1.12% -2.21%
Independent Renea Turner (write-in) 185 0.00% N/A
Independent Richard Duncan (write-in) 132 0.00% N/A
Independent Rebecca Ayres (write-in) 41 0.00% N/A
Total votes 4,429,582 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

DeWine won 12 of 16 congressional districts.[198]

District DeWine Cordray Representative
1st 52.15% 45.14% Steve Chabot
2nd 54.33% 42.65% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 27.46% 70.09% Joyce Beatty
4th 62.14% 34.23% Jim Jordan
5th 58.32% 38.31% Bob Latta
6th 64.34% 32.81% Bill Johnson
7th 59.45% 37.16% Bob Gibbs
8th 64.37% 32.45% Warren Davidson
9th 35.31% 61.33% Marcy Kaptur
10th 52.11% 44.87% Mike Turner
11th 18.43% 79.5% Marcia Fudge
12th 52.41% 45.24% Pat Tiberi
13th 40.37% 56.56% Tim Ryan
14th 51.98% 45.18% David Joyce
15th 52.64% 44.64% Steve Stivers
16th 53.71% 43.38% Anthony Gonzalez

Notes

  1. Paul Ray 1%, Larry Ealy 0%
  2. Paul Ray 2%, Larry Ealy 1%
  3. Richard Duncan (write-in), Rebecca Ayers (write-in), and Renea Turner (write-in) with 0%
  4. Colin Hill (I) with 3%

References

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  154. Terry McAuliffe. "There's a lot at stake this election year in Ohio. We need leaders like @RichCordray elected as governor to fight for the people. If the other candidate wins 700k people will lose access to affordable health care. That's why I'm proud to be in Ohio today to support his candidacy". Twitter.
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  164. Mike Pence. "A GREAT night for the #MAGA agenda and the people of Ohio. Congrats to @MikeDeWine on his primary victory! Mike will put the needs of the people of Ohio FIRST and @RealDonaldTrump & I look forward to working with him". Twitter.
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