2017 Copeland by-election

By-election 2017: Copeland[1][2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Trudy Harrison	13,748	44.2	8.5
	Labour	Gillian Troughton	11,601	37.3	4.9
	Liberal Democrats	Rebecca Hanson	2,252	7.2	3.8
	UKIP	Fiona Mills	2,025	6.5	9.0
	Independent	Michael Guest	811	2.6	N/A
	Green	Jack Lenox	515	1.7	1.3
	Independent	Roy Ivinson	116	0.4	N/A
Majority			2,147	6.9
Turnout			31,108	51.3	12.5
	Conservative gain from Labour		Swing	6.7

This was the first time since 1935 that Labour had failed to win the constituency or its predecessor, Whitehaven. It was also the first gain for a governing party at a UK by-election since the 1982 Mitcham and Morden by-election, where the incumbent Labour MP had sought re-election after defecting to the Social Democratic Party against the background of the Falklands War. It was the largest increase in the share of the vote of a governing party in a by-election since the Kingston upon Hull North by-election in January 1966.[3] According to Matt Singh of psephology website Number Cruncher Politics, it was the first directly comparable by-election gain for a governing party since the 1878 by-election in Worcester.[4][5] By this, Singh meant that the governing party gained a seat:

• without the incumbent having defected from their party (as at the 1982 Mitcham and Morden by-election and the 1929 Preston by-election);
• without the winning candidate being disqualified (as at the 1961 Bristol South East by-election);
• where the incumbent's party had a prior majority of more than 3% (unlike at the 1960 Brighouse and Spenborough by-election, the 1953 Sunderland South by-election, and the 1924 Liverpool West Toxteth by-election);
• where the incumbent had been a member of the principal opposition party (unlike at the 1929 Liverpool Scotland by-election, the 1926 Combined English Universities by-election, the 1922 Hackney South by-election, the 1921 Woolwich East by-election, and the 1912 Hanley by-election); and
• without there being a significant change in the lineup of parties contesting the seat (as at the 1901 North East Lanarkshire by-election).[4]

The poor result for Labour triggered fresh criticism of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the party, with calls for him to stand down as leader.[6][7][8]

The incumbent Labour MP Jamie Reed announced his intention to resign on 21 December 2016[9] in order to become the new Head of Development & Community Relations at Sellafield Ltd,[10] where he had worked before becoming a politician. He was a critic of the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, a reportedly unpopular politician in the constituency.[11][12] Reed's resignation took effect on 23 January 2017.[13]

The election was held with the Conservatives considerably ahead of Labour in national opinion polls.[14]

Copeland and Whitehaven, the predecessor seat, had been represented by Labour since 1935. Although Reed supported remaining within the European Union, his constituency voted to leave in the June 2016 EU referendum. Because the constituency is not coterminous with any local authority, the exact result is unknown. Chris Hanretty, a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, estimated through a demographic model that in Copeland, 60% of voters voted 'Leave'.[15][16]

An early issue in the campaign was plans to downgrade maternity services at West Cumberland Hospital in Whitehaven. The plans were defended by the Conservative Prime Minister, Theresa May.[12] In response to Labour criticism, the Conservative campaign said that decisions about local hospitals were the responsibility of the local NHS trust.[27]

Trade unions claimed that government cuts to Sellafield's employee pension scheme could "threaten the Conservatives' chances of winning the by-election".[38]

The Conservatives focused on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his long-standing opposition to nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. The constituency contains the Sellafield nuclear decommissioning plant and nuclear submarines are built in nearby Barrow, and Conservative election literature highlighted the potential risks to the Cumbrian economy of Labour policies.[27] Labour campaigners responded that the views of party leader Corbyn do not represent the views of the party.[27] The Conservatives also campaigned on a pro-Brexit line, suggesting that voting Conservative would ensure that Brexit is delivered, whereas voting Labour would encourage Labour to "ignore and forget ... the EU referendum".[39][40]

It was reported that the Labour candidate had refused requests for interviews from Channel 4, whilst all other major candidates had accepted the request.[41]

A storm, named Doris, hit the constituency on polling day, which some commentators suggested might reduce turnout,[42] though in the event the turnout was relatively high for a Westminster by-election.[43][44]

• List of United Kingdom by-elections (2010–present)

• Webpage for the Conservative candidate, Trudy Harrison
• Webpage for the Liberal Democrat campaign
• Webpage for the Labour campaign Archived 12 February 2017 at the Wayback Machine