When Prophecy Fails

Festinger, Riecken and Schachter used the study to test their theories on how people might be expected to behave when faced with a specific type of dissonance, arising from a failed prophecy. The team had seen that in some cases the failure of a prophecy, rather than causing a rejection of the original belief system, could lead believers to increase their personal commitment, and also increase their efforts to recruit others into the belief. They identified five conditions that they proposed could lead to this type of reaction:

In the case of all conditions being in place, their hypothesis was that believers would find it difficult to abandon their beliefs in the face of disconfirmation, would use their available social support to maintain their beliefs, and would try to increase consonance by recruitment through proselyting, on the grounds that "If more and more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it must after all be correct."

The research team considered that all of the conditions were likely to be fulfilled in the case study involving Martin and her followers. In this case, if the group's leader could add consonant elements by converting others to the basic premise, then the magnitude of her dissonance following disconfirmation would be reduced. The research team predicted that the inevitable disconfirmation would be followed by an enthusiastic effort at proselyting to seek social support and lessen the pain of disconfirmation.

The study was principally qualitative in nature, with data collected through participant observation, without the permission of the people being observed. The authors of the study and a selection of paid observers infiltrated groups of believers in two locations, in order to collect data as trusted insiders. Posing as people with a genuine personal interest in flying saucers and the group's belief system, the observers built rapport with the group members, aiming to take as passive a role as possible whilst gathering information on the group. Between them, the observers aimed to be present at all key events. Following each notable occurrence, each observer would attempt to excuse themselves in order to write up their notes or record them on audiotape while their memory was still fresh. They would record their notes in a variety of locations, including the bathroom of the house, the porch, or in a nearby hotel room that had been rented for the purpose. In addition to their own notes, the observers collected artifacts such as originals or copies of automatic writing produced by Martin, and transcripts of taped telephone calls that the research subjects themselves had recorded and lent to the observers.

In order to protect the privacy of the research subjects, the authors used pseudonyms for all group members and the locations of the study.

The belief system of the group evolved continuously before, during and after the study. Martin's early influences, as outlined in the study, included theosophy, Godfré Ray King, and John Ballou Newbrough, as well as a general interest in flying saucers and extraterrestrial visitors. Martin had previously been involved with L. Ron Hubbard's Dianetics movement, and she incorporated ideas from what later became Scientology.[1]

Martin began practising automatic writing, initially receiving messages allegedly from her deceased father. Martin believed her father was living in "the astral", which was populated by myriad spirits and beings. She believed that there were different frequencies of spiritual vibration, with less dense frequencies equating to a higher level of existence: higher levels were home to more developed spiritual beings. She went on to believe she was receiving messages from a high-level spiritual instructor called Elder Brother and other spiritual beings called The Guardians, who were living on planets called Clarion and Cerus. Her main source of messages became Sananda, who she understood to be the contemporary manifestation of the historical Jesus. Christianity was therefore central to the belief system as it evolved. As Martin began to draw a group of fellow believers around her, she developed the system alongside others who had studied other aspects of the occult and supposed extraterrestrial life, exposing the system with a wider range of influences. Another group member (pseudonym Bertha Blatsky) also claimed to be receiving and vocalising messages from spacemen, and Martin and "Blatsky" would sometimes undertake a verification process of each other's messages. Based on ongoing direct revelation, the belief system was highly fluid and adaptive.

The group understood the Guardians to be benign spiritual teachers of humanity, newly able to make contact with humans through atmospheric changes brought about by the testing of nuclear weapons. They understood that extraterrestrial visits to earth were about to increase, and that it was possible for spacemen to visit in a human form or "sice", making it possible that any newcomer could be a spaceman in disguise. They also believed in a future cataclysmic event that would lead to widespread destruction and the purification of the Earth, and that selected humans would be rescued by space ship by the Guardians in advance of this event – this was the prediction that provided the focal point of the study. Following the failure of this prediction to materialise, those remaining in the group came to believe that their own activities had influenced events and that God had temporarily saved the world from destruction.

Festinger, Riecken and Schachter reported the following sequence of events:

• December 17. Ms. Keech received a phone call from person identifying himself as "Captain Video" from outer space, telling her that a saucer was to land in her backyard to pick her up at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. (Festinger considers this call to have been made by a practical joker reacting to press coverage of Keech's group.) Some of the group initially questioned the call, before accepting it and preparing themselves to be collected by the saucer, removing all metal objects from their persons. By 5:30 pm the group appeared to have given up, and were reluctant to discuss the issue of why the saucer had not arrived. When the matter was discussed, they agreed that the event had been a practice session. Ms. Keech received another message later that day that the saucer would pick them up at 1:30 am. The group waited for the saucer until 3:30 am then gave up.
• Before December 20. The group shuns publicity. Interviews are given only grudgingly. Access to Keech's house is only provided to those who can convince the group that they are true believers. The group evolves a belief system – provided by the automatic writing from the planet Clarion – to explain the details of the cataclysm, the reason for its occurrence, and the manner in which the group would be saved from the disaster.
• December 20. The group expects a visitor from outer space to call upon them at midnight and to escort them to a waiting spacecraft. As instructed, the group goes to great lengths to remove all metallic items from their persons. As midnight approaches, zippers, bra straps, and other objects are discarded. The group waits.
• 12:05 am. December 21. No visitor. Someone in the group notices that another clock in the room shows 11:55. The group agrees that it is not yet midnight.
• 12:10 am. The second clock strikes midnight. Still no visitor. The group sits in stunned silence. The cataclysm itself is no more than seven hours away.
• 4:00 am. The group has been sitting in stunned silence. A few attempts at finding explanations have failed. Keech begins to cry.
• 4:45 am. Another message by automatic writing is sent to Keech. It states, in effect, that the God of Earth has decided to spare the planet from destruction. The cataclysm has been called off: "The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction."
• Afternoon, December 21. Newspapers are called; interviews are sought. In a reversal of its previous distaste for publicity, the group begins an urgent campaign to spread its message to as broad an audience as possible.
• December 24. The group had invited the press to publicise a new prediction that spacemen would land in a flying saucer and pick them up. While waiting, they sang Christmas carols, watched by "some 200 unruly spectators". The police had to be called to control the mob. The community was not happy with Mrs. Keech.
• December 26. A warrant was issued for Mrs. Keech and Dr. Armstrong for several charges.