Drone warfare

Scholarly opinions are mixed regarding the efficacy of drone strikes. Some studies support that decapitation strikes to kill a terrorist or insurgent group's leadership limit the capabilities of these groups in the future, while other studies refute this. Drone strikes are successful at suppressing militant behavior, though this response is in anticipation of a drone strike rather than as a result of one. Data from the US and Pakistan's joint counter-terrorism efforts show that militants cease communication and attack planning to avoid detection and targeting.[27]

Proponents of drone strikes assert that drone strikes are largely effective in targeting specific combatants.[28] Some scholars argue that drone strikes reduce the amount of civilian casualties and territorial damage when compared to other types of military force like large bombs.[28] Military alternatives to drone strikes such as raids and interrogations can be extremely risky, time-consuming, and potentially ineffective. Relying on drone strikes does not come without risks as U.S. drone usage sets an international precedent on extraterritorial and extrajudicial killings.[28]

Commercial UCAVs may be equipped with such weapons as guided bombs, cluster bombs, incendiary devices, air-to-surface missiles, air-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles or other types of precision-guided munitions, autocannons and machine guns.[39] Drone attacks can be conducted by commercial UCAVs dropping bombs, firing a missile, or crashing into a target.[5] Commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be weaponized by being loaded with dangerous explosives and then crashed into vulnerable targets or detonated above them. They can conduct aerial bombing by dropping hand grenades, mortar shell or other improvised explosive munitions directly above targets. Payloads could include explosives, shrapnel, chemical, radiological or biological hazards. Multiple drones may attack simultaneously in a drone swarm.[33] Drones have been used extensively by both sides for recon and artillery spotting in the Russo-Ukraine War.[40]

Anti-UAV systems are being developed by states to counter the threat of drone strikes.[41] This is, however, proving difficult. According to James Rogers, an academic who studies drone warfare, "There is a big debate out there at the moment about what the best way is to counter these small UAVs, whether they are used by hobbyists causing a bit of a nuisance or in a more sinister manner by a terrorist actor."[42]

Turkish made Bayraktar TB2 at Baku Victory Parade of 2020, Azerbaijan

During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, UCAVs have been used extensively by the Azerbaijani Army against the Armenian Army.[43] These UCAVs included Israeli IAI Harops and Turkish Bayraktar TB2s.[44] As the Bayraktar TB2 uses Canadian optics and laser targeting systems, in October 2020 Canada suspended export of its military drone technology to Turkey after allegations that the technology had been used to collect intelligence and direct artillery and missile fire at military positions. After the incident, Aselsan stated that it would begin the serial production and integration of the CATS system to replace the Canadian MX15B.[45]

During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, both sides have utilised drones in combat and for reconnaissance, and drones have played an important role in offensives. Ukrainian forces have made extensive use of the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone throughout the conflict in strikes against Russian forces. Russian forces meanwhile launched waves of Iranian HESA Shahed 136 drones during the October 2022 missile strikes on Ukraine.[46] The main roles of drones in the war, however, are in reconnaissance and artillery spotting. Russian sources claimed to have used a "Stupor anti-drone rifle" to jam the radio controls of Ukrainian drones.[47]

On October 13, 2022, the first recorded instance of an unarmed drone-on-drone combat encounter occurred above the Donetsk region of Ukraine. A Ukrainian DJI Mavic quadcopter was recorded ramming a Russian drone of the same model, resulting in the latter crashing towards the surface below.[48][49][50] Another instance of this aerial ramming tactic occurred on November 24, 2022, this time with the Russian DJI Mavic being recorded plummeting towards the ground after a collision with a Ukrainian drone.[51][52] On May 9, 2023, a Russian conscript surrendered to (or rather via) a Ukrainian drone.[53] The average HESA Shahed 136 drone is worth about $20,000. An IRIS-T missile is worth about $430,000 each in comparison. From 13 September until 17 October, open source information suggests that Ukraine has had to spend $28.14 million on defending against these drones.[54][55]

Since at least September 2022, Ukraine has used black naval drones that used Starlink for connection to carry attacks on the Black Sea fleet at the Sevastopol Naval base.[56][57][58][59] The naval drones were at first assumed to be for reconnaissance, but appear to carry munitions and act as a bomb.[60] With experts noting that the sensors on the front of the naval drone could be used as a laser range finder to help in targeting.[60] In late October 2022, seven of these drones were used to mount a successful drone attack on the Sevastopol Naval base.[56][61] The attacks have caused deterrence from the Russian Navy without escalation.

• Swarm drone attacks on Khmeimim Air Base
• 2018 Caracas drone attack, allegedly by weaponized commercial drones, while Nicolás Maduro, the President of Venezuela, was addressing the Bolivarian National Guard.
• Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure (2022–present)