2017 Ecuadorian general election

General elections were held in Ecuador on 19 February 2017 alongside a referendum on tax havens.[1] Voters elected a new President and National Assembly. Incumbent President Rafael Correa of the PAIS Alliance was not eligible for re-election, having served three terms. In the first round of the presidential elections, PAIS Alliance candidate Lenín Moreno received 39% of the vote. Although he was more than 10% ahead of his nearest rival, Guillermo Lasso of the Creating Opportunities party, Moreno was just short of the 40% threshold required to avoid a run-off. As a result, a second round was held on 2 April.[2] In the second round Moreno was elected president with 51.16% of the vote.[3][4]

2017 Ecuadorian general election

19 February 2017 (first round)
2 April 2017 (second round)
Presidential election
 
Nominee Lenín Moreno Guillermo Lasso
Party PAIS Alliance CREO
Alliance United Front Alliance for Change
Running mate Jorge Glas Andrés Páez
Popular vote 5,062,018 4,833,389
Percentage 51.16% 48.84%

  Lenín Moreno
  Guillermo Lasso

President before election

Rafael Correa
PAIS Alliance

Elected President

Lenin Moreno
PAIS Alliance

Background

Following nearly a decade of political volatility in Ecuador that was characterized by impeachments, economic crises, and public unrest,[5] Rafael Correa, the nation's previous president, began his ascendance to power. During his 2006 campaign Correa established the PAIS Alliance, a coalition of leftist organizations that is the same party of current president Lenin Moreno. Lenin Moreno previously served as Correa's vice president.[6][7]

Throughout his campaign and during his presidency Correa mobilized populist rhetoric to gain support, framing himself in opposition to the former political elite and current economic elite: Correa used the terms “neoliberal night” (“noche neoliberal”) and “particracy” (“partidocracia”) to refer to those groups, respectively, and characterized his own movement as a “citizen's revolution” (La revolucion ciudadana).[8][9] Correa's success was part of a larger wave of leftist movements in Latin American that began around the turn of century, frequently referred to as the “pink tide.” Other countries that elected left-leaning presidents in the early 2000s include Argentina (Néstor Kirchner), Venezuela (Hugo Chávez), and Brazil (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva), among others.[9][10]

One of the most significant events that took place during Correa's time in office was the ratification of a new constitution in 2008.[5] Correa advocated for the new constitution and his supporters welcomed it, citing a focus on civil rights and social programs for the impoverished.[11][12] However, the constitution was also met with much opposition, as its detractors feared that the document would give too much economic authority to the executive and initially believed its elimination of term limits would benefit Correa himself, although a provision on the amendment assured the law would not be put into action until after his presidency had ended.[9]

Guillermo Lasso, a former banker, initially ran for president in 2013, but lost to Correa by more than 30% of the vote in the first round.[13] In both his first and second bids for president, Lasso was aligned with the Creating Opportunities Party (Creando Oportunidades), a conservative-leaning party that formed in 2012 and focused on celebrating the market, eliminating taxes, as well as advocating for an independent judiciary and free speech.[14][15]

With Correa ineligible for re-election, his supporters formed an organisation Rafael Contigo Siempre (Always with you Rafael) to campaign for a constitutional amendment to allow him to run again. With signatures from 8% of the electorate required to hold a referendum (929,062), a total of 1.2 million were collected.[16] However, Correa stated that he was planning on retiring from politics and would not run again.[17] Instead, on 2 October 2016 the PAIS Alliance nominated Lenín Moreno, Correa's vice president from 2007 to 2013, as its candidate, with incumbent vice president Jorge Glas as his running mate.[18] Moreno was challenged by Guillermo Lasso, a former banker.[19]

Campaign

A central issue in the presidential election was corruption; scandals in the Petroecuador state oil company and Odebrecht cases led to demands that candidates develop substantive plans to deal with corruption. Moreno proposed an anti-corruption law, while Lasso proposed a Truth Commission, which would be created with assistance from the United Nations.[20]

The two main candidates had very different visions for the country; Moreno's policy ideas were fairly similar to Correa's, while Lasso said he wanted to attack corruption and lower taxes.[19]

Lasso said before the elections that he would not allow Julian Assange to continue living in the Ecuadorian embassy in London.[21]

Electoral system

The President was elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10% ahead of their nearest rival to be elected in the first round.[22] The President is limited to two consecutive four-year terms.[23]

The 137 members of the National Assembly were elected by three methods : 15 were elected from a nationwide constituency, 116 were elected in 31 districts (21 corresponding to the 21 smallest provinces and 10 within the 3 largest provinces, range 2-6 seats per district), and six elected from three two-member constituencies representing Ecuadorians living overseas. Elections are by open list proportional representation (every voter can vote for as many candidates as there are seats to be awarded), with the 15 national seats allocated using the Webster method and the rest using the d'Hondt method.[24] Voting was compulsory except for voters aged 16–18 or over 65 and people classed as illiterate.[25] Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, either consecutive or not. There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.[23]

Parties have to receive at least 5% of the vote in national elections in order to maintain their legal registration.[26]

Opinion polls

Second round

2017
Date Institute Lenín
Moreno
Guillermo
Lasso
22/03/17 Eureknow 44.3% 41.3%
22/03/17 DIAGNOSTICO 48.73% 37.07%
21/03/17 Perfiles de Opinión 49.37% 36.35%
21/03/17 CEDATOS 52.4% 47.6%
21/03/17 Market 52.1% 47.9%
19/03/17 CMS 36,76% 35,86%
16/03/17 DIAGNOSTICO 50.61% 36.72%
15/03/17 CEDATOS 49.2% 50.8%
14/03/17 Market 53.2% 46.8%
14/03/17 Perfiles de Opinión 51.02% 35.53%
12/03/17 Opinión Pública 46% 35%
09/03/17 DIAGNOSTICO 48.36% 35.70%
06/03/17 CMS 35.17% 35.01%
01/03/17 DIAGNOSTICO 50.39% 41.20%
25/02/17 CIS 59% 41%
25/02/17 CEDATOS 47.9% 52.1%

First round

2017
Date Institute Lenín
Moreno
Guillermo
Lasso
Cynthia
Viteri
Paco
Moncayo
Dalo
Bucaram
Washington
Pesántez
Iván
Espinel
Patricio
Zuquilanda
End of public opinion polling (08/02/17)
08/02/17 CMS 25.63% 15.18% 6.64% 5.52%
08/02/17 CIEES 43.3% 21.3% 12.6% 10.8% 6.6% 1.0% 3.9% 0.6%
08/02/17 Opinión Pública 34.2% 18.2% 13.7% 7.4% 3.6% 0.1% 2.5% 0.6%
08/02/17 CEDATOS 32.3% 21.5% 14% 7.7% 4.1% 0.5% 2.9% 0.6%
08/02/17 Perfiles de Opinión 35% 16% 14% 7% 4% <2% 4% <2%
08/02/17 Market 28.5% 18.3% 20.2% 11.5% 4.9% 0.9% 2.6% 1.0%
28/01/17 Informe Confidencial 26.5% 17.5% 18.5%
27/01/17 CMS 26.42% 15.51% 7.70% 5.97% 2.94% <2% <2% <2%
23/01/17 CEDATOS 34.3% 22.9% 11.4% 8.0% 4.3% 0.5% 1.7% 0.3%
21/01/17 Market 28.17% 16.57% 17.98% 13.22% 4.78% 0.59% 1.53% 1.3%
19/01/17 Estrategia y Táctica 23.6% 15.8% 12.8% 16.9%
15/01/17 Opinión Pública 34% 18.2% 8.9% 6.0% 2.9% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
08/01/17 Perfiles de Opinión 35% 17% 14% 8% 4% <3% <3% <3%
2016 – fourth quarter
Date Institute Lenín
Moreno
Guillermo
Lasso
Cynthia
Viteri
Paco
Moncayo
Dalo
Bucaram
Washington
Pesántez
Iván
Espinel
Patricio
Zuquilanda
Lucio
Gutiérrez
Álvaro
Noboa
29/12/16 CEDATOS 35.6% 22.3% 10.9% 6.9% 3.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4%
28/12/16 Market 28.6% 17.7% 19.3% 14.8% 4.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
19/12/16 CMS 24.63% 12.89% 7.27% 5.18%
19/12/16 Opinión Pública 35.9% 17.4% 7.5% 7.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8%
15/12/16 Perfiles de Opinión 36.86% 15.23% 12.33% 4.8% 3.23% 0.60% 1.28% 0.08%
15/12/16 Market 31.3% 17.1% 17.4% 13.8% 3.5% 0.5% 1.2% 1.9%
02/12/16 CEDATOS 36.2% 22% 9.7% 7.3% 3% 0.5% 1% 1.7% 0%
01/12/16 Estrategia y Táctica 28.68% 18.11% 13.39% 14.03% 4%
28/11/16 Market 28.1% 18.0% 17.6% 9.5% 1.9% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3%
26/11/16 CMS 22.79% 11.22% 6.73% 5.22%
23/11/16 Opinión Pública 40% 16.1% 7.7% 6.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.5%
19/11/16 CIEES 42% 15% 9% 9% <3% <3% <3%
18/11/16 Perfiles de Opinión 43% 14% 10% 8% 2% 1%
01/11/16 CMS 26.11% 11.14% 5.23% 5.89%
28/10/16 CEDATOS 37% 20% 10% 7% 3% 1% 2% 1%
26/10/16 CIEES 44% 13% 6% 8%
25/10/16 Market 32.2% 14.30% 16.14% 13.70%
25/10/16 CMS 29.91% 11.63% 6% 7.83%
23/10/16 Merchandising 28% 12% 5% 6% 13%
23/10/16 Markconsult S.A. 24% 11.5% 9.1% 2% 9.3%
23/10/16 Market 33.1% 13.8% 17.5% 10.3% 2.0% 2.3%
16/10/16 Opinión Pública 38.1% 13.7% 6.2% 6.2% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6%
13/10/16 Perfiles de Opinión 48% 12% 9% 8% 2% 3%
2016 – third quarter
Date Institute Rafael
Correa
Lenín
Moreno
Jorge
Glas
Guillermo
Lasso
Cynthia
Viteri
Paco
Moncayo
Dalo
Bucaram
Álvaro
Noboa
Lucio
Gutiérrez
Lourdes
Tibán
Lenin
Hurtado
Enrique
Ayala Mora
Washington
Pesántez
Jimmy
Jairala
Paúl
Carrasco
Jaime
Nebot
Mauricio
Rodas
30/09/16 Dialoga 31.7% 21.4% 11.5% 4.9% 4.5%
32.1% 22.4% 4.8% 4.9% 7.9%
28/09/16 Informe Confidencial 36% 18.8% 15.7% 2.1% 2.1%
33.7% 21.1% 2.3% 2.9% 9.8%
16/09/16 Perfiles de Opinión 49.06% 15.55% 10.63% 2.27% 1.37% 2.25%
30.41% 17.55% 14.77%
15/09/16 CEDATOS 35% 18% 8% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0.2%
12/09/16 Quantum 42% 15% 10% 4%
17% 16% 10% 8%
12/09/16 Monitor 31.3% 23.4% 13.3% 4.1%
26.9% 24.8% 13.3% 3.6%
10/09/16 Opinion Pública 44% 14% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4%
30/08/16 Perfiles de Opinión 54% 16% 8% 3%
34% 19% 13% 3%
23/08/16 Monitor 23.4% 20.5% 17.3% 4.8%
33% 19.5% 16.2% 4.4%
25.8% 20.6% 17.5% 4.8%
03/08/16 Informe Confidencial 39.3% 12.5% 7.4% 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 0.4%
27.3% 13.6% 11.8% 1% 1.9% 2.2% 0.4%
22/07/16 CEDATOS 35% 22% 8% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0.1%
28% 21% 8% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
20% 24% 10% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0.1%
04/07/16 Perfiles de Opinion 43.5% 13.2% 15.5% 1.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2%
25.5% 16.8% 17.4% 1.7% 4.8% 2.9% 0.8%
03/07/16 CEDATOS 25% 31% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0.2% 1% 0.1% 1%
28% 27% 1% 0% 11%
28% 28% 1% 1% 0% 6%
07/16 Opinion Pública 38% 17% 5% 2% 1% 1% 6%
2016 – second quarter
Date Institute Lenín
Moreno
Jorge
Glas
Guillermo
Lasso
Jaime
Nebot
Cynthia
Viteri
Paco
Moncayo
Álvaro
Noboa
Dalo
Bucaram
Washington
Pesántez
Lourdes
Tibán
29/06/16 CEDATOS 44% 26% 1% 1% 0.1% 1%
25% 29% 1% 2% 0.3% 2%
42% 23% 10% 1% 0% 1%
01/05/16 Perfiles de Opinión 50% 9% 15% 2% 2% 2% 1%
25% 14% 20% 4% 3% 1% 1%
2016 – first quarter
Date Institute Rafael
Correa
Jorge
Glas
Lenín
Moreno
Guillermo
Lasso
Jaime
Nebot
Mauricio
Rodas
Dalo
Bucaram
Ramiro
González
Cynthia
Viteri
Alberto
Dahik
Carlos
Pérez
Lucio
Gutiérrez
Álvaro
Noboa
Lenin
Hurtado
Paúl
Carrasco
21/02/16 Opinion Pública 34% 10% 10% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
17/02/16 CEDATOS 19% 40% 4% 4% 1% 0%
34% 26% 13% 1% 0%
36% 27% 8% 7% 1%
10/01/16 Perfiles de Opinión 29.8% 20.8% 14.4% 3.3% 1.9%
28.5% 16.1% 23.9% 2.8% 2.4%
2015
Date Institute Rafael
Correa
Lenín
Moreno
Guillermo
Lasso
Mauricio
Rodas
Jaime
Nebot
Lucio
Gutiérrez
Alberto
Acosta
Paúl
Carrasco
Ramiro
González
Álvaro
Noboa
21/12/15 Perfiles de Opinión 58% 9% 16% 1%
60% 13% 7% 1%
11/12/15 Opinion Pública 35% 10% 6% 6% 1% 0.4% 2% 0.4%
03/10/15 Opinion Pública 37% 12% 10% 6% 2% 1%
06/08/15 Opinion Pública 34% 11% 9% 4% 2% 1%
13/07/15 CEDATOS 40.4% 24% 12.3% 8.1%
2014
Date Institute Rafael
Correa
Guillermo
Lasso
Mauricio
Rodas
Lucio
Gutiérrez
Alberto
Acosta
Álvaro
Noboa
Norman
Wray
Nelson
Zavala
Jorge
Glas
Lenín
Moreno
Jaime
Nebot
Isabel
Noboa
Ramiro
González
Vinicio
Alvarado
19/06/14 CEDATOS 50% 16.7% 11.1% 1.2% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3%
22.6% 15.6% 2.1% 0.7% 17.6% 13.3% 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
2013
Date Institute Rafael
Correa
Guillermo
Lasso
Mauricio
Rodas
Lucio
Gutiérrez
Alberto
Acosta
Álvaro
Noboa
Norman
Wray
Nelson
Zavala
Jorge
Glas
10/12/13 CEDATOS 60% 22% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0.1%
31% 5% 1% 2% 1% 0.4% 0.1% 29%
13/10/13 CEDATOS 56% 24% 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
31% 7% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 23%

Results

President

The first-round count was delayed for four days, far longer than usual, raising suspicions from the Lasso camp. In past years, the first-round results were known on election day. Election officials blamed the delays on "numerical inconsistencies" in some ballots. Moreno maintained a consistent lead throughout the count. However, by the fourth day of counting, it was no longer mathematically possible for him to win an outright victory—setting the stage for the runoff.[2]

A recount would have taken weeks and Lenin Moreno (usually referred to as just “Lenin”) challenged all the allegations of fraud. President Correa said that "the moral fraud committed by the right will not go unpunished." Moreno said he will represent those who voted and those who didn't, tweeting "Long live Ecuador! Welcome fighters of peace and of life” along with a picture of him immediately after winning the election. His opponent Lasso, however, encouraged the people to peacefully protest the election results. He tweeted: "Let's act in a peaceful but firm manner, we must go to the streets and say 'don't steal my vote' because we want a change in Ecuador."[27]

The National Electoral Council announced on 13 April that it would recount all ballots contested by both parties, accounting to about 10% of the total vote.[28] Moreno also led the vote after recount of some of the votes, increasing the number of votes obtained by 1,594.[29]

CandidateRunning matePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Lenín MorenoJorge GlasPAIS Alliance3,716,34339.365,062,01851.16
Guillermo LassoAndrés PáezAlliance for Change (CREO-SUMA)2,652,40328.094,833,38948.84
Cynthia ViteriMauricio Pozo CrespoSocial Christian Party1,540,90316.32
Paco MoncayoMonserratt BustamanteNational Agreement for Change634,0336.71
Abdalá Bucaram Jr.Ramiro AguilarFuerza Ecuador455,1874.82
Iván Espinel MolinaDoris QuirozSocial Commitment Force299,8403.18
Patricio Zuquilanda DuqueJohnnie Jorgge ÁlavaPatriotic Society Party72,6790.77
Washington PesántezÁlex AlcívarEcuadorian Union Movement71,1070.75
Total9,442,495100.009,895,407100.00
Valid votes9,442,49590.239,895,40793.04
Invalid/blank votes1,022,8129.77740,1676.96
Total votes10,465,307100.0010,635,574100.00
Registered voters/turnout12,816,69881.6512,816,69882.98
Source: CNE

National Assembly

The National Assembly makes up the legislative branch of Ecuadorean government. These elected officials have the power to pass laws, while judges of the national court of justice are chosen by a separate judicial council.[30]

PartyNationalProvincialOverseasTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%SeatsVotes%Seats
PAIS Alliance3,184,00439.0773,061,61836.546347,34444.45474–36
Alliance for Change (CREO–SUMA)1,634,78620.0631,654,31819.742920,54819.2923424
Social Christian Party1,295,76815.9031,251,92314.941222,24020.88015+7
Fuerza Ecuador387,1004.751344,4684.1103960.37010
Democratic Left307,2353.771348,9194.1632,6282.4704New
Patriotic Society Party239,5942.940186,3542.2221,3551.2702–3
Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement217,5912.670216,5232.5847760.7304–1
Advance175,2132.150223,3392.6702,6852.5200–5
Social Commitment Force159,2591.950128,7671.5401,5091.4200New
Popular Unity130,3911.600226,3692.7008570.80000
Forward Ecuadorian. Forward Party106,7581.310133,3511.5901,8661.75000
Democratic Centre92,9041.140136,9551.6301,2851.2100New
Coalition Movement82,3091.01063,9130.76000
Ecuadorian Socialist Party70,0850.860120,7961.4401,2361.16000
Ecuadorian Union Movement66,4890.82071,9170.8601,7781.6700New
Provincial movements (MSC/UpP/MPCG)209,1352.50330
Total8,149,486100.00158,378,665100.00116106,503100.0061370
Valid votes8,149,48677.798,378,66580.99106,50379.94
Invalid/blank votes2,326,74522.211,966,55719.0126,72720.06
Total votes10,476,231100.0010,345,222100.00133,230100.00
Registered voters/turnout12,816,69881.7412,436,60683.18378,29235.22
Source: El Telegrafo, CNE

Andean Parliament

PartyVotes%Seats
PAIS AllianceEcuadorian Socialist Party13,394,75536.983
Alliance for Change (CREO–SUMA)6,853,77718.921
Social Christian Party6,080,20216.791
National Agreement for Change3,890,34910.740
Fuerza Ecuador1,866,3455.150
Advance934,2352.580
Social Commitment Force881,3982.430
Patriotic Society Party851,7432.350
Democratic Center533,8811.470
Forward Ecuadorian, Forward513,7801.420
Coalition Movement422,7161.170
Total36,223,181100.005
Valid votes36,223,18194.19
Invalid/blank votes2,234,1065.81
Total votes38,457,287100.00
Registered voters/turnout12,816,698300.06
Source: CNE

References

  1. Referendum on tax havens will be conducted in the elections of 2017 Archived 2016-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Ecuador Times, 22 November 2016
  2. Ecuador will hold run-off poll to choose new president BBC News, 23 February 2017
  3. CNE plenary presented total results of the second round of elections Archived 2017-04-11 at the Wayback Machine CNE, 10 April 2017
  4. El Pleno del CNE proclamó a Lenín Moreno presidente electo de Ecuador El Comercio, 18 April 2017
  5. "Constitutional history of Ecuador". Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  6. "Conozca la historia de Alianza PAIS, de un binomio al control del poder en Ecuador". 10 September 2012. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  7. "IFES Election Guide - Elections: Ecuador President Second Round". www.electionguide.org. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  8. Pike, John. "Rafael Correa". www.globalsecurity.org. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  9. "What to expect from Ecuador's elections". The Economist. 18 February 2017. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  10. "BBC NEWS - Americas - South America's leftward sweep". news.bbc.co.uk. 2 March 2005. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  11. Kendall, Clare (23 September 2008). "A new law of nature". Retrieved 24 June 2017 via The Guardian.
  12. Siddique, Haroon; agencies (29 September 2008). "Ecuador referendum endorses new socialist constitution". Retrieved 24 June 2017 via The Guardian.
  13. Archived copy Archived 2017-03-17 at the Wayback Machine)
  14. "Explainer: Ecuador's 2017 Presidential Elections - AS/COA". AS/COA. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  15. "Ecuador former banker Lasso heads opinion poll for run-off presidential vote - News - DW - 26.02.2017". DW.COM. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  16. Ecuadorians Collect 1.2 Million Signatures for Correa's Reelection Archived 2016-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Panama Post, 17 August 2016
  17. Ecuador's Rafael Correa to Supporters: Thanks but I Won't Run for Reelection Archived 2016-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Panama Post, 21 August 2016
  18. Dube, Ryan (3 October 2016). "Ecuador's Ruling Party Chooses Lenin Moreno as Presidential Candidate". The Wall Street Journal.
  19. Ecuador votes in crucial general elections Al Jazeera, 19 February 2017
  20. Corruption returns to the debate Archived 2017-04-09 at the Wayback Machine Ecuador Times, 21 March 2017
  21. Ecuador's Election Ends In Close Result, And Accusations Of Cheating NPR, 3 April 2017
  22. Ecuador Archived 2016-12-24 at the Wayback Machine IFES
  23. Ecuador Political Database of the Americas
  24. Articles 150.2 and 164 Electoral law of Ecuador
  25. Electoral system IPU
  26. Ecuador - Political parties Nations Encyclopedia
  27. Euan McKirdy and Rafael Romo (3 April 2017). "Ruling party candidate claims win in Ecuadorian vote, rival vows challenge". CNN. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  28. "Ecuador presidential election: 10% of votes to be recounted". Associated Press. 14 April 2017. Retrieved 24 June 2017 via The Guardian.
  29. "Ecuador Vote Recount Confirms Moreno as Next President". US News. 19 April 2017. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  30. "Ecuador: Government >> globalEDGE: Your source for Global Business Knowledge". globaledge.msu.edu. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
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