Exchange-rate pass-through
Exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT) is a measure of how responsive international prices are to changes in exchange rates.
Formally, exchange-rate pass-through is the elasticity of local-currency import prices with respect to the local-currency price of foreign currency. It is often measured as the percentage change, in the local currency, of import prices resulting from a one percent change in the exchange rate between the exporting and importing countries.[1] A change in import prices affects retail and consumer prices. When exchange-rate pass-through is greater, there is more transmission of inflation between countries.[2] Exchange-rate pass-through is also related to the law of one price and purchasing power parity.
Example
Suppose that the US imports widgets from the UK. The widgets cost $10 and £1 costs $1. Then the British Pound appreciates against the dollar and now £1 costs $1.50. Also suppose that the widgets now cost $12.5
There has been a 50% change in the exchange rate and a 25% change in price. The exchange rate pass-through is
For every 1% increase in the exchange rate, there has been a .5% increase in the price of the widgets.
Measurement
The "standard pass-through regression"[3] is
where is import price, is the exchange rate, is marginal costs, is demand, and denotes a first difference. The exchange-rate pass-through after periods is
Campa and Goldberg (2005) estimated the long-run exchange-rate pass-through to import prices for the following countries, averaging across the countries from which imports came:[2]
Country | Long-Run Exchange-Rate Pass-Through[2] |
---|---|
Australia | 0.69 |
Canada | 0.68 |
Switzerland | 0.94 |
Czech Republic | 0.61 |
Germany | 0.79 |
Denmark | 0.68 |
Spain | 0.56 |
Finland | 0.82 |
France | 1.21 |
United Kingdom | 0.47 |
Hungary | 0.85 |
Ireland | 1.37 |
Iceland | 0.76 |
Italy | 0.62 |
Japan | 1.26 |
Netherlands | 0.77 |
Norway | 0.79 |
New Zealand | 0.62 |
Poland | 0.99 |
Portugal | 0.88 |
Sweden | 0.59 |
USA | 0.41 |
Measurement of exchange-rate pass-through is typically performed using aggregate price indexes.[1] Some studies have examined how firms in different industries or with different production costs differ in their responses to exchange rates. Studies of firm-level differences explain why exchange-rate pass-through is not equal to one[4] and how globalization caused a decrease in exchange-rate pass-through.[5]
References
- Goldberg, P.K.; Knetter, M.M. (1997). "Goods prices and exchange rates: What have we learned?". Journal of Economic Literature. 35 (3): 1243–1272. doi:10.3386/w5862.
- Campa, J.M.; Goldberg, L.S. (2005). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices". Review of Economics and Statistics. 87 (4): 679–690. doi:10.1162/003465305775098189. S2CID 57558745. (2002 NBER Working Paper version, doi:10.3386/w8934)
- Gopinath, G.; Rigobon, R. (2008). "Sticky Borders". Quarterly Journal of Economics. 123 (2): 531–575. doi:10.1162/qjec.2008.123.2.531.
- Berman, N.; Martin, P.; Mayer, T. (2012). "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?". Quarterly Journal of Economics. 127 (1): 437–492. doi:10.1093/qje/qjr057.
- Cook, J.A. (2014). "The Effect of Firm-Level Productivity on Exchange Rate Pass-Through". Economics Letters. 122 (1): 27–30. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2013.10.028.