2003 Lower Saxony state election
The 2003 Lower Saxony state election was held on 2 February 2003 to elect the members of the 15th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) majority government led by Minister-President Sigmar Gabriel was defeated. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came up one seat short of a majority, and formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP). CDU leader Christian Wulff was subsequently elected minister-president.
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All 183 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony 92 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 3,984,009 (67.0%) 6.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
The election in Lower Saxony had larger significance than just in the state itself.[1] Defeat for the Social Democrats in the election would mean they lost their slim majority in the upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat.[1] It was thought this might cause the collapse of Gerhard Schröder's national coalition government between the Social Democrats and the Green Party.[1]
Campaign and issues
The economy was seen as the most important issue in the election, with the Social Democrats suffering as a result.[2]
Opinion polls in December 2002 showed the Christian Democrats in the lead with 43% as against 34% for the Social Democrats.[3]
Parties
The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Landtag of Lower Saxony.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 1998 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Sigmar Gabriel | 47.9% | 83 / 157 | |
| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Christian Wulff | 35.9% | 62 / 157 | |
| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | 7.0% | 12 / 157 | ||
Opinion polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | CDU | Grüne | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 state election | 2 Feb 2003 | – | 33.4 | 48.3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 14.9 |
| Forsa | 27–30 Jan 2003 | 1,014 | 33 | 48 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| Forsa | 20–24 Jan 2003 | 1,103 | 35 | 48 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| Emnid | 23 Jan 2003 | ? | 37 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 16–20 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 36 | 48 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
| Forsa | 13–18 Jan 2003 | 1,008 | 36 | 48 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| Infratest dimap | 9–13 Jan 2003 | 1,000 | 37 | 46 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Forsa | 6–10 Jan 2003 | 1,027 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6–9 Jan 2003 | 1,044 | 37 | 45 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Forsa | 27 Dec 2002–3 Jan 2003 | 1,122 | 36 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–4 Dec 2002 | 1,000 | 40 | 45 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Emnid | 14–20 Nov 2002 | 1,003 | 34 | 43 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Forsa | 23 Sep 2002 | ? | 47 | 36.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 11.5 |
| Emnid | 30 Aug–4 Sep 2002 | 1,000 | 42 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 14 Jun 2002 | 1,000 | 45 | 35 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 10 |
| Emnid | 31 May 2002 | ? | 39 | 37 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| Forsa | 17 Apr 2002 | ? | 43 | 41 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Emnid | 21–27 Feb 2002 | 1,000 | 43 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| Forsa | 11–27 Feb 2002 | 1,327 | 43 | 39 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 31 Aug 2001 | ? | 44 | 36 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| Forsa | 22 Jun 2001 | ? | 46 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2001 | ? | 48 | 35 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| Forsa | 28 Oct 1999 | ? | 41 | 46 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–24 Oct 1999 | 1,000 | 41 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 1998 state election | 1 Mar 1998 | – | 47.9 | 35.9 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 12.0 |
Election result
| Party | Votes | % | +/- | Seats | +/- | Seats % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | 1,925,055 | 48.3 |  12.4 |
91 | 29 |
49.7 | |
| Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 1,330,156 | 33.4 | 14.5 |
63 | 20 |
34.4 | |
| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 323,107 | 8.1 | 3.2 |
15 | 15 |
8.2 | |
| Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) | 304,532 | 7.6 | 0.6 |
14 | 2 |
7.7 | |
| Party for a Rule of Law Offensive (Schill party) | 40,342 | 1.0 | New | 0 | New | 0 | |
| Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) | 21,560 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
0 | ±0 | 0 | |
| Others | 39,257 | 1.0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 3,984,009 | 100.0 | 183 | 26 |
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| Voter turnout | 67.0 | 6.8 |
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References
- Hall, Allan (2002-12-01). "The joke's on Schroder as Germans seek serious answers to economic crisis". Scotland on Sunday. p. 21.
- "State voters reject Schroeder". CNN. 2003-02-03. Retrieved 2009-09-20.
- Hall, Allan (2002-12-26). "Germany is desperately seeking Schroder as chancellor loses his grip". The Scotsman. p. 9.
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