2017 Lower Saxony state election

The 2017 Lower Saxony state election was held on 15 October 2017 to elect the 18th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by Minister-President Stephan Weil was defeated. Though the SPD became the largest party in the Landtag largely fueled by the personal popularity of Weil, their gains were offset by losses for the Greens, depriving the government of its majority. The SPD subsequently formed a grand coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Weil continued as Minister-President.

2017 Lower Saxony state election
15 October 2017
All 137 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
69 seats needed for a majority
Turnout3,828,003 (63.1%)
Increase 3.7%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Stephan Weil Bernd Althusmann Anja Piel
Party SPD CDU Greens
Last election 49 seats, 32.6% 54 seats, 36.0% 20 seats, 13.7%
Seats won 55 50 12
Seat change Increase 6 Decrease 4 Decrease 8
Popular vote 1,413,990 1,287,191 334,130
Percentage 36.9% 33.6% 8.7%
Swing Increase 4.3% Decrease 2.4% Decrease 5.0%
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Stefan Birkner Dana Guth
Party FDP AfD
Last election 14 seats, 9.9% Did not exist
Seats won 11 9
Seat change Decrease 3 Increase 9
Popular vote 287,957 235,863
Percentage 7.5% 6.2%
Swing Decrease 2.4% Did not exist
Government before election

First Weil cabinet
SPD–Green

 Government after election

Second Weil cabinet
SPD–CDU

This was the last election, state or federal, in which the SPD gained seats or increased their share of the popular vote until the 2021 German federal election and 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election which both took place on the same day in September 2021.

Background

Following the 2013 state election, a red-green coalition between the SPD and Greens was formed, holding a one-seat majority in the Landtag. After Green parliamentarian Elke Twesten controversially defected to the CDU on 4 August 2017, the coalition lost its majority,[1] which prompted Minister-President Stephan Weil to schedule an early election for 15 October.[2] The Landtag was officially dissolved on 21 August after 135 of 137 parliamentarians voted in favor, with 91 votes required for its dissolution.[3]

Electoral system

The Landtag of Lower Saxony is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Its minimum size is 135 seats. Of these, 87 are elected in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are determined by party lists. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates within each individual constituency, and the "second vote" for party lists. There is an electoral threshold of 5% of second vote to qualify for seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with additional overhang and leveling seats provided to ensure proportionality. The normal term of the Landtag is 5 years.[4]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of Lower Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2013 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Bernd Althusmann 36.0%
54 / 137
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Stephan Weil 32.6%
49 / 137
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Anja Piel 13.7%
20 / 137
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Stefan Birkner 9.9%
14 / 137

Opinion polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU SPD Grüne FDP Linke AfD Others Lead
2017 state election 15 Oct 2017 – 33.6 36.9 8.7 7.5 4.6 6.2 2.4 3.3
Civey 25 Sep–13 Oct 2017 5,073 31.8 34.6 8.5 8.9 5.7 7.8 2.7 2.8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10–11 Oct 2017 1,001 33 34.5 9 9 5 7 2.5 1.5
INSA 4–6 Oct 2017 1,005 32 33 10 10 5 7 3 1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 2–5 Oct 2017 1,083 33 33 9 10 5 7 3 Tie
Infratest dimap 2–4 Oct 2017 1,002 34 34 8.5 8 4.5 8 3 Tie
Civey 24 Sep–1 Oct 2017 4,570 33.1 32.8 9.9 8.0 5.4 8.1 2.7 0.3
Infratest dimap 26–27 Sep 2017 1,004 35 34 9 8 5 6 3 1
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 34.9 27.4 8.7 9.3 6.9 9.1 3.6 7.5
Infratest dimap 30 Aug–5 Sep 2017 1,001 37 32 10 6 5 7 3 5
dimap 18–26 Aug 2017 1,003 39 31 8 8 4 8 2 8
INSA 9 Aug 2017 1,000 40 28 9 9 5 7 2 12
Infratest dimap 8–9 Aug 2017 1,003 40 32 9 7 3 6 3 8
INSA 18–23 May 2017 1,000 41 27 8 9 5 6 4 14
Forsa 18–28 Apr 2017 1,001 35 36 8 6 4 6 5 1
Infratest dimap 13–18 Jan 2017 1,002 35 31 14 6 4 8 2 4
Forsa 22 Dec 2016–9 Jan 2017 1,000 34 32 12 6 4 7 5 2
INSA 6–14 Oct 2016 1,000 33 31 12 8 5 7 4 2
Forsa 23 Oct–20 Nov 2015 1,002 35 33 14 6 4 4 4 2
INSA 21 Aug–2 Sep 2015 1,000 37 29 14 6 6 3 5 8
Infratest dimap 26 Jun–1 Jul 2015 1,000 40 31 14 5 5 2 3 9
GMS 8–13 Jan 2015 1,012 41 30 14 3 4 4 4 11
2014 European election 25 May 2014 – 39.4 32.5 10.9 2.5 4.0 5.4 5.3 6.9
Infratest dimap 14–16 Jan 2014 1,000 40 32 13 4 5 3 3 8
2013 federal election 22 Sep 2013 – 41.1 33.1 8.8 4.2 5.0 3.7 4.1 8.0
2013 state election 20 Jan 2013 – 36.0 32.6 13.7 9.9 3.1 – 4.6 3.4

Results
Party Constituency Party list Total
seats		 +/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,508,830 39.6% 55 1,413,990 36.9% 0 55 +6
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 1,420,083 37.3% 32 1,287,191 33.6% 18 50 –4
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 283,327 7.4% 0 334,130 8.7% 12 12 –8
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 226,554 5.9% 0 287,957 7.5% 11 11 –3
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 174,521 4.6% 0 235,863 6.2% 9 9 +9
The Left (Linke) 170,660 4.5% 0 177,118 4.6% 0 0 –
Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz) – – 0 27,108 0.7% 0 0 –
Die PARTEI (PARTEI) 9,097 0.2% 0 22,578 0.6% 0 0 –
Free Voters (FW) 11,348 0.3% 0 14,869 0.4% 0 0 –
Pirate Party (Piraten) 2,350 0.1% 0 8,449 0.2% 0 0 –
Basic Income Alliance (BFE) – – 0 5,125 0.1% 0 0 –
German Centre (DM) – – 0 4,482 0.1% 0 0 –
V-Partei³ – – 0 4,151 0.1% 0 0 –
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 735 0.0% 0 4,042 0.1% 0 0 –
Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR) 488 0.0% 0 950 0.0% 0 0 –
The Grays (DG) 260 0.0% 0 – – 0 0 –
Independents 2,447 0.1% 0 – – 0 0 –
Total 3,811,125 100.0% 87 3,828,003 100.0% 50 137 –
Valid votes 3,811,125 99.0% 3,828,003 99.5%
Invalid votes 37,892 1.0% 21,014 0.5%
Turnout 3,849,017 63.1%
Eligible voters 6,098,379
Source: Niedersächsische Landeswahlleiterin

Government formation

Neither the incumbent red-green coalition between the SPD and Greens nor the black-yellow opposition of the CDU and FDP secured a majority of seats in the election. Because the FDP ruled out the possibility of a traffic light coalition (between the SPD, FDP, and Greens) and the Greens ruled out a Jamaica coalition (between the CDU, Greens, and FDP),[5] the SPD and CDU subsequently agreed to start negotiations to form a grand coalition.[6]

On 16 November, the SPD and CDU agreed to form a government.[7]

See also

References
  1. Lisa Caspari; Veronika Völlinger; Rita Lauter (4 August 2017). "Die Frau, die Niedersachsens Regierung stürzte". Die Zeit. Retrieved 28 August 2017.
  2. "Niedersachsen-Wahl am 15. Oktober". Die Welt. 7 August 2017. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  3. "Der Niedersächsische Landtag hat sich aufgelöst". Norddeutscher Rundfunk. 21 August 2017. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  4. Wilko Zicht (20 January 2013). "Wahlsystem Niedersachsen". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  5. "FDP und Grüne in Hannover stellen sich auf Opposition ein". Die Welt. Deutsche Presse-Agentur. 27 October 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  6. "Niedersachsen vor Großer Koalition". ZDF. Deutsche Press-Agentur. 1 November 2017. Archived from the original on 1 November 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
  7. "SPD und CDU schließen "Koalition der Vernunft"". NDR. 16 November 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
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