Obama coalition

The Obama coalition was the combination of various voting blocs that supported the candidacy and presidency of Barack Obama. It consisted primarily of racial minorities, along with women and young voters.[1] It allowed for high vote share among cities and suburbs, as well as among voters that self-described as moderate.[2] The coalition formed in 2007 and 2008 as Obama campaigned for the presidency. During the 2008 election, the strength of the coalition gave Obama 53% of the vote, making him the first Democrat to win with a popular vote majority since Jimmy Carter in 1976.[2] In 2012, he won reelection with 51% of the vote along similar demographic lines.[3]

Obama with future Democratic nominees Clinton and Biden
Obama shaking hands with supporters in 2008

The weaknesses of the coalition became apparent during the two midterm elections that took place during Obama's presidency. During the 2010 midterms, significant portions of the coalition failed to turn out or defected to the Republican Party.[4][5] Similar results occurred in the 2014 midterms.[6] Hillary Clinton was described as attempting to continue the Obama coalition in order to win the presidential election in 2016,[7] with her loss marking the end of the coalition.[8][9]

During the 2020 Democratic Party presidential debates, Kamala Harris argued that it was necessary to "rebuild the Obama coalition" for the Democratic Party to win the election.[1] After receiving the Democratic nomination, Obama's former Vice President Joe Biden was described as requiring a new coalition due to shifts in voting patterns over the previous years; the white working-class had moved away from the coalition while women aligned with it in stronger numbers. Slight shifts had also taken place among suburban and nonwhite voters.[10] In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential election with the same voting blocs as the Obama coalition.[11]

Vote share
Obama vote share by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup 2008[12] 2012[13]
Total vote 53 51
Ideology
Liberals 89 86
Moderates 60 56
Conservatives 20 17
Party
Democrats 89 92
Republicans 9 6
Independents 52 45
Gender
Men 49 45
Women 56 55
Marital status
Married 47 42
Unmarried 65 62
Race
White 43 39
Black 95 93
Asian 62 73
Other 66 58
Hispanic 67 71
Religion
Protestant 45 42
Catholic 54 50
Jewish 78 69
Other 73 74
None 75 70
Religious service attendance
More than weekly 43 36
Weekly 43 41
Monthly 53 55
A few times a year 59 56
Never 67 62
White evangelical or born-again Christian?
White evangelical or born-again Christian 24 21
Everyone else 62 60
Age
18–24 years old 66 60
25–29 years old 66 60
30–39 years old 54 55
40–49 years old 49 48
50–64 years old 50 47
65 and older 45 44
Age by race
Whites 18–29 years old 54 44
Whites 30–44 years old 41 38
Whites 45–64 years old 42 38
Whites 65 and older 40 39
Blacks 18–29 years old 95 91
Blacks 30–44 years old 96 94
Blacks 45–64 years old 96 93
Blacks 65 and older 94 93
Latinos 18–29 years old 76 74
Latinos 30–44 years old 63 71
Latinos 45–64 years old 58 68
Latinos 65 and older 68 65
Others 64 67
Sexual orientation
LGBT 70 76
Heterosexual 53 49
Education
Not a high school graduate 63 64
High school graduate 52 51
Some college education 51 49
College graduate 50 47
Postgraduate education 58 55
Union households
Union 59 58
Non-union 51 49
Issue regarded as most important
Economy 53 47
Health care 73 75
Region
Northeast 59 59
Midwest 54 50
South 45 46
West 57 54

See also

References
  1. Siders, David; Cadelago, Christopher; Barrón-López, Laura (2019). "To defeat Trump, Dems rethink the Obama coalition formula". POLITICO. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  2. Smith, Ben; Martin, Jonathan. "Why Obama won". POLITICO. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  3. Cassidy, John (2012-11-06). ""Obama Coalition" Carries Him to Big Victory". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  4. Rutenberg, Jim; Thee-Brenan, Megan (2010-10-27). "Obama Coalition Is Fraying, Poll Finds". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  5. Best, Samuel (2010). "Why Democrats Lost the House to Republicans". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  6. Seitz-Wald, Alex; Lee, Trymaine (2014). "The curse of the Obama coalition". MSNBC.com. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  7. Gearan, Anne (2015). "Clinton is banking on the Obama coalition to win". The Washington Post.
  8. Bailey, Issac (2016-11-09). "Is the Obama coalition finished?". CNN. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  9. Cohn, Nate (2016-12-23). "How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  10. Seitz-Wald, Alex (2020). "Obama had a coalition. Biden built a new one and here's how it's different". NBC News. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  11. "Biden coalition built on broad but unstable foundation". POLITICO. Retrieved 2022-07-11.
  12. "National Exit Poll". CNN. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  13. "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. Retrieved January 27, 2013.
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