Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals
The Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS, or simply wind signals or signals;[lower-alpha 1] Filipino: Mga Babala ng Bagyo) are tropical cyclone alert levels issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to areas within the Philippines that may be affected by tropical cyclone winds and their associated hazards.[1]
PAGASA's TCWS system is activated when a tropical cyclone is inside or near the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is forecast to affect the Philippine archipelago. It is a tiered system that has five numbered levels, with higher numbers associated with higher wind speeds and shorter "lead times", which are time periods within which an expected range of wind strength is expected to occur.[1][2][3] TCWS signals are issued for specific localities (province or city/municipal level) and are escalated, de-escalated or lifted depending on the expected strength of winds and the movement of the tropical cyclone relative to the affected areas.[4][1]
The TCWS system is the consequence of decades of evolution of early warning systems for tropical cyclones in the Philippines. The earliest known tropical cyclone warning system in the country dated back in the 1950s, but it was in the 1970s when this was revised into the more familiar four-tiered public storm warning signal system.[5] This was further subject to revisions after the catastrophic onslaught of Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in 2013, which prompted the addition of a fifth warning level to emphasize extreme tropical cyclone winds.[6][7] The current version of the TCWS was implemented in 2022.[8][9][10]
The five Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal levels
Note: This table incorporates text from public domain sources authored by PAGASA.
Wind Signal No. | Wind speed | Warning lead time (from first issuance) | Potential wind impacts | Corresponding tropical cyclone category |
---|---|---|---|---|
TCWS #1 | Strong winds: Beaufort Force 6–7 39–61 km/h 22–33 kn 10.8–17.1 m/s 25–38 mph |
36 hours | Minimal to minor threat to life and property
|
Tropical depressions (TD) and stronger |
TCWS #2 | Gale-force winds: Beaufort Force 8–9 62–88 km/h 34–47 kn 17.2–24.4 m/s 39–54 mph |
24 hours | Minor to moderate threat to life and property
|
Tropical storms (TS) and stronger |
TCWS #3 | Storm-force winds: Beaufort Force 10–11 89–117 km/h 48–63 kn 24.5–32.6 m/s 55–72 mph |
18 hours | Moderate to significant threat to life and property
|
Severe tropical storms (STS) and stronger |
TCWS #4 | Typhoon-force winds: Beaufort Force 12 118–184 km/h 64–99 kn 32.7–51.2 m/s 73–114 mph |
12 hours | Significant to severe threat to life and property
|
Typhoons (TY) and stronger |
TCWS #5 | Extreme typhoon-force winds: Beaufort Force 12 ≥185 km/h ≥100 kn ≥51.3 m/s ≥115 mph |
12 hours | Extreme threat to life and property
|
Super typhoons (STY) |
Issuance principles and practices
Whenever a tropical cyclone forms inside or enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) commences the release of Tropical Cyclone Bulletins (TCB) to inform the general public of the cyclone's location, intensity, movement, circulation radius and its forecast track and intensity for at most 72 hours. The TCB also contains a plain-text discussion of the hazards threatening land and coastal waters and the PAGASA's track and intensity outlook for the cyclone.
PAGASA activates the five-tiered Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) system once it is determined that the tropical cyclone inside the PAR is going to directly affect the Philippines and its outermost cyclonic winds is at least 36 hours away from reaching the nearest landmass. All TCWS signal levels in effect in various localities affected or to be affected by tropical cyclone winds are enumerated in each TCB issuance, including the escalation, de-escalation or lifting of such signal levels. Wind signals are hoisted and updated (escalated, de-escalated or lifted) usually in regular time intervals coinciding with the release of a TCB:[13]
- 6-hourly TCB issuance: when TCWS signals levels have been raised as the tropical cyclone approaches the Philippine landmass (5:00 a.m./p.m. and 11:00 a.m./p.m. PHT).
- 3-hourly TCB issuance: when (a) the tropical cyclone is about to make landfall within the next 24 hours; (b) during land crossing and directly after land crossing when the tropical cyclone start to move over water away from land; (c) the tropical cyclone remains offshore but is close to the landmass, warranting the activation of TCWS signals (2:00 a.m./p.m., 5:00 a.m./p.m., 8:00 a.m./p.m. and 11:00 a.m./p.m. PHT).
TCBs can also be released only twice a day (12-hourly) when the tropical cyclone is too far away that it does not affect the Philippine landmass (whether or not the tropical cyclone is approaching the landmass), in which case no TCWS signals are raised.
Contrary to common misconception, the purpose of the TCWS system is to warn the public of the threat of tropical cyclone winds (and its associated hazards on land and sea); it does not include rainfall (and its associated hazards such as flooding and landslides) induced by tropical cyclones. There are other weather warning systems already in place for rainfall, such as Rainfall Advisories for light to moderate rainfall and the Heavy Rainfall Warning System (HR-WS) for heavy and/or continuous rainfall during rain-intensive weather events including tropical cyclones.
The TCWS system is a tiered system (from TCWS #1 to #5) that allows for the escalation, de-escalation or lifting of wind signals in every TCB issuance depending on the tropical cyclone wind intensity, the extent of tropical cyclone winds (i.e. radius of tropical cyclone wind circulation) and the forecast direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone (relative to the Philippine landmass) at the time of TCB issuance. As a tropical cyclone approaches or moves over land, intensifies or becomes wider, a wind signal raised over a particular locality can be escalated to a higher wind signal level; multiple wind signals hoisted over various areas can also be escalated, and the extent or area where there are active wind signals can also be expanded. On the other hand, wind signals are de-escalated to lower wind signal levels, or else lifted or deactivated, and the area where wind signals are active becomes smaller when the tropical cyclone moves away from land, weakens or scales down in its width. The TCWS system also allows for the skipping of wind signal levels, especially when there is a rapid change in the state of the tropical cyclone.
An important feature of the TCWS system is the lead time, which is the period of time within which a locality should expect the arrival of a range of tropical cyclone wind intensity, i.e. the number of hours from the first time a wind signal is hoisted until the expected range of tropical cyclone wind intensity impacts a particular locality. This makes the TCWS an early warning system, wherein the initial issuance of a particular signal level over a locality does not mean that the inclement weather conditions indicated for the given signal level is already prevailing. The lead time is used to raise awareness of the approximate remaining length of time for the public to prepare against impending tropical cyclone winds. Lead times in the TCWS system are valid only for the first issuance of a particular wind signal; higher wind signal levels correspond to higher wind speeds and shorter lead times.
For example, winds of 39–61 km/h is expected to occur within the next 36 hours when a specific locality is initially put under TCWS #1 due to an approaching tropical cyclone; thus, that locality has at least 36 hours to prepare before such winds arrive or start to occur. When the wind signal in the same locality is escalated to #2, the public has at least 24 hours left to prepare or brace themselves before their locality is struck by winds of 62–88 km/h.
Wind signals under the TCWS system are hoisted primarily at city/municipal or province level. An exception to this is Metro Manila, which is collectively placed under a single wind signal level.
History
Pre-Haiyan Philippine tropical cyclone warning systems (1950s–2015)
In the 1950s, the Philippine Weather Bureau (predecessor to the PAGASA) maintained a tropical cyclone warning system which included ten levels, from Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) #1 to #10, issued primarily for seafarers. It was revised in the 1970s to include only three levels corresponding to the three basic tropical cyclone classification by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for the Northwest Pacific basin: PSWS #1 for cyclones at tropical depression strength, with 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed of no more than 63 km/h (≤39 mph; ≤34 kn); PSWS #2 for cyclones at tropical storm strength, with winds reaching 64–117 km/h (40–72 mph; 35–63 kn); and PSWS #3 for cyclones attaining typhoon-force winds, i.e. at least 118 km/h (≥73 mph; ≥64 kn).[5]
Signal No. | Meaning |
---|---|
PSWS #1 | winds of 63 km/h or less (≤39 mph; ≤34 kn) |
PSWS #2 | winds of 64–117 km/h (40–72 mph; 35–63 kn) |
PSWS #3 | winds of 118 km/h or greater (≥73 mph; ≥64 kn) |
A fourth signal level was added in 1997 to accommodate stronger typhoons and, in this amendment, the concept of "lead time" was first introduced. Each signal level has a corresponding lead time which indicates the period of time within which an locality should expect the arrival of a range of tropical cyclone wind strength, thus informing the public as early as possible of the approximate remaining length of time for preparations against impending tropical cyclone winds. Lead times remain in use in succeeding versions of PAGASA's tropical cyclone signal systems, with higher signal levels corresponding to both stronger wind speeds and shorter lead times.[3][2][1]
PAGASA later expanded this to include details on the impacts of such wind intensities (particularly the potential scale of damage to agriculture and infrastructure) and the precautionary measures to be taken. This four-tiered Public Storm Warning Signal system was in place for nearly two decades until amendments were made in 2015, two years after the disaster brought by Typhoon Haiyan.[5][3]
Signal No. | Meaning |
---|---|
PSWS #1 | winds of 30–60 km/h (19–37 mph; 16–32 kn) expected in at least 36 hours |
PSWS #2 | winds of 61–100 km/h (38–62 mph; 33–54 kn) expected in at least 24 hours |
PSWS #3 | winds of 101–185 km/h (63–115 mph; 55–100 kn) expected in at least 18 hours |
PSWS #4 | winds greater than 185 km/h (>115 mph; >100 kn) expected in at least 12 hours |
Post-Haiyan Philippine tropical cyclone warning system (2015–2022)
Typhoon Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Typhoon "Yolanda", caused catastrophic destruction after plowing through central Philippines in November 2013 with 10-minute maximum sustained winds peaking at 235 km/h as estimated by PAGASA.[14] Discussions on the revision of the PSWS started, as PSWS #4 was deemed inadequate for extreme tropical cyclones.[5][6][7]
As a result, PAGASA launched the Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) system in May 2015 to supersede the PSWS.[6][7] Alongside the TCWS, PAGASA also declared its official tropical cyclone intensity scale which resembles the intensity scale stipulated in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee's operational manual[12] (implemented by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in charge of the Northwest Pacific basin). In this amendment, PAGASA introduced the "severe tropical storm" category (in between the tropical storm and typhoon categories) and the "super typhoon" category, the latter being defined as an extreme tropical cyclone with 10-minute maximum sustained winds in excess of 220 km/h.[15][16] A fifth signal level, TCWS #5, was introduced accordingly for super typhoons, with the same 12-hour lead time as TCWS #4.[5][6][7][15]
The Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal was then renamed "Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal" in 2019 to show emphasis that this warning system is based on tropical cyclone wind intensity rather than rains, flash floods and landslides (for which other weather warning systems, particularly the PAGASA Heavy Rainfall Warning System, are already in place).[4][17]
Category | Sustained winds |
---|---|
Tropical depression | ≤61 km/h (≤38 mph; ≤33 kn) |
Tropical storm | 62–88 km/h (39–54 mph; 34–47 kn) |
Severe tropical storm | 89–117 km/h (55–72 mph; 48–63 kn) |
Typhoon | 118–220 km/h (73–140 mph; 64–120 kn) |
Super typhoon | >220 km/h (>140 mph; >120 kn) |
Signal No. | Meaning |
---|---|
TCWS #1 | winds of 30–60 km/h (19–37 mph; 16–32 kn) are prevailing or expected to occur within 36 hours |
TCWS #2 | winds of 61–120 km/h (38–74 mph; 33–64 kn) are prevailing or expected to occur within 24 hours |
TCWS #3 | winds of 121–170 km/h (75–105 mph; 65–91 kn) are prevailing or expected to occur within 18 hours |
TCWS #4 | winds of 171–220 km/h (106–140 mph; 92–120 kn) are prevailing or expected to occur within 12 hours |
TCWS #5 | winds greater than 220 km/h (>140 mph; >120 kn) are prevailing or expected to occur within 12 hours |
Current version (2022–onwards)
Seven years later, PAGASA announced on March 23, 2022 (in line with the celebration of the 2022 World Meteorological Day) that they have amended both the tropical cyclone intensity scale and the Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) as a result of a "sunset review" of the agency's tropical cyclone warning system.[9][10][8] In a press release, PAGASA stated that the intensity scale and TCWS revisions are based on the "adoption of best practices from other TC warning centers and regionally-accepted operational standards, developments in objective guidance for TC wind swaths, operational experiences and challenges encountered by typhoon forecasters, and feedback from end-users and stakeholders."[8][9]
For the intensity scale, PAGASA lowered the threshold wind speed for classifying super typhoons from 220 km/h to 185 km/h and defined a super typhoon as an extreme tropical cyclone with 10-minute maximum sustained winds reaching 185 km/h or greater (the range of wind speed for typhoon category is consequently adjusted to 118–184 km/h). This is deemed similar to the super typhoon definition used by other meteorological agencies in the Northwest Pacific such as the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).[lower-alpha 2][12][9][10]
Category | Sustained winds |
---|---|
Tropical depression | ≤61 km/h (≤38 mph; ≤33 kn) |
Tropical storm | 62–88 km/h (39–54 mph; 34–47 kn) |
Severe tropical storm | 89–117 km/h (55–72 mph; 48–63 kn) |
Typhoon | 118–184 km/h (73–114 mph; 64–99 kn) |
Super typhoon | ≥185 km/h (≥115 mph; ≥100 kn) |
For the TCWS, adjustments were made in the wind intensity ranges per wind signal level to account for:[8][9]
- the "indistinguishable" damages sustained in areas under the old TCWS #4 and TCWS #5, as discovered through damage assessment of previous tropical cyclones;
- the wide wind intensity range in the old TCWS #2, which was applicable for both tropical storms and severe tropical storms despite significant change in both cyclonic wind strength and impact severity.
PAGASA, thus, amended the TCWS by adjusting the wind intensity ranges per signal level based on the Beaufort wind force scale, which empirically assigns a number from 0 to 12 to measure wind speed. As a result, the wind intensity ranges in the modified TCWS parallels that of the revised tropical cyclone intensity scale, i.e. each signal level in the modified TCWS is associated with each tropical cyclone category (TCWS #1 corresponding to tropical depression, TCWS #2 for tropical storm, and so on). This March 2022 update of the tropical cyclone intensity scale and TCWS is the version that is currently being implemented in the Philippines.[12][11][8]
Signal No. | Issued for | Meaning |
---|---|---|
TCWS #1 | Tropical depressions and stronger | strong winds[lower-alpha 3] (Beaufort Force 6–7: 39–61 km/h; 22–33 kn; 25–38 mph) are prevailing or expected to occur within 36 hours |
TCWS #2 | Tropical storms and stronger | gale-force winds[lower-alpha 4] (Beaufort Force 8–9: 62–88 km/h; 34–47 kn; 39–54 mph) are prevailing or expected to occur within 24 hours |
TCWS #3 | Severe tropical storms and stronger | storm-force winds[lower-alpha 5] (Beaufort Force 10–11: 89–117 km/h; 48–63 kn; 55–72 mph) are prevailing or expected to occur within 18 hours |
TCWS #4 | Typhoons and stronger | typhoon-force winds[lower-alpha 6] (Beaufort Force 12 winds of 118–184 km/h; 64–99 kn; 73–114 mph) are prevailing or expected to occur within 12 hours |
TCWS #5 | Super typhoons | extreme typhoon-force winds (Beaufort Force 12 winds of 185 km/h or greater; ≥ 100 kn; ≥ 115 mph) are prevailing or expected to occur within 12 hours |
External links
Notes
- Formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (2015–2019) or Public Storm Warning Signals (1970s–2015)
- When converted from JTWC's 1-minute averaging to PAGASA/WMO's 10-minute averaging[12][9]
- or "strong breeze to near gale-force winds"
- or "gale-force to severe gale-force winds"
- or "storm-force to violent storm-force winds"
- equivalent to "hurricane-force winds"
References
- "Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal". Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Retrieved August 23, 2022. This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
- PAGASA. "Philippine Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal". Archived from the original on 2022-06-30. Retrieved 2022-06-30.
- PAGASA. "The Modified Philippine Public Storm Warning Signals". PAGASA Kidlat. Archived from the original on 2008-09-30. Retrieved 2008-09-30.
- Arceo, Acor (December 3, 2019). "Why is it now called tropical cyclone 'wind' – and not 'warning' – signals?". Rappler. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- Esperanza O. Cayanan (July 20, 2015). "The Philippines modified its Tropical Cyclone Warning System" (PDF). World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
- de la Cruz, Gwen (May 21, 2015). "PAGASA adds Storm Signal No. 5 to storm warning system". Rappler. Archived from the original on April 26, 2019. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
- Sauler, Erika (May 21, 2015). "Pagasa adds storm signal No. 5 for supertyphoons". Inquirer.net. Philippine Daily Inquirer. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- "Press Release: DOST-PAGASA modifies Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) system". Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). March 23, 2022. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- Arceo, Acor (March 23, 2022). "PAGASA changes super typhoon definition, wind signals". Rappler. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- Sarao, Zacarian (March 24, 2022). "Pagasa revises definition of 'super typhoon,' signal system". Inquirer.net. Philippine Daily Inquirer. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- "Modified Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) System (23 March 2022)". YouTube (in Filipino). Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). March 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- "Modified Tropical Cyclone Warning System (in the 2022 World Meteorological Day: Scientific Forum)". YouTube. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). March 23, 2022.
- Perez, Chris (October 26, 2018). "Public Weather Forecast Issued at 4:00 AM October 26, 2018". YouTube. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Retrieved August 24, 2022.
- Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "Yolanda" (Haiyan) Severe Weather Bulletin Number Six (Report). Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). November 7, 2013. Archived from the original on November 8, 2013. Retrieved November 9, 2013.
- "Storm Signal No. 5 officially added by PAGASA". CNN Philippines. May 21, 2015. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- Cervantes, Ding (May 16, 2015). "Pagasa bares 5 new storm categories". ABS-CBN News. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
- de la Cruz, Gwen (April 4, 2015). "How to use PAGASA's color-coded rainfall advisory". Rappler. Archived from the original on August 23, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.