UK Threat Levels

The United Kingdom Terror Threat Levels, often referred to as UK Threat Levels, are the alert states that have been in use since 1 August 2006 by the British government to warn of forms of terrorist activity. In September 2010 the threat levels for Northern Ireland-related terrorism were also made available.[1] In July 2019 changes were made to the terrorism threat level system, to reflect the threat posed by all forms of terrorism, irrespective of ideology. There is now a single national threat level describing the threat to the UK, which includes Islamist, Northern Ireland, left-wing and right-wing terrorism.[1] Before 2006, a colour-based alert scheme known as BIKINI state was used.[2] The response indicates how government departments and agencies and their staffs should react to each threat level.

UK Threat Levels
United Kingdom Terror Threat Levels
British military personnel guarding Downing Street as part of Operation Temperer following the Manchester Arena bombing
General information
Current LevelSUBSTANTIAL

Current threat level

The current National Threat Level is "substantial”, which was set on 9 February 2022.[3] It had been raised to "severe" following the Liverpool Women's Hospital bombing on 14 November 2021.[4]

The current level of Northern Ireland-related Threat Level to Northern Ireland is "Severe". It was raised to this level on 28 March 2023.[5]

Categories of threat

Since 23 July 2019, the Home Office has reported two different categories of terrorist threat:

  • National Threat Level.
  • Northern Ireland-related Threat Level to Northern Ireland[1]

Previously, since 24 September 2010, the Home Office has reported three different categories of terrorist threat:[6][7]

  • Threat from international terrorism.
  • Terrorism threat related to Northern Ireland in Northern Ireland itself.
  • Terrorism threat related to Northern Ireland in Great Britain (i.e. excluding Northern Ireland).

A fourth category of terrorist threat is also assessed but is not disclosed, relating to threats to sectors of the UK's critical national infrastructure such as the London Underground, National Rail network and power stations.[8]

The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) is responsible for setting the threat level from international terrorism and the Security Service (MI5) is responsible for setting both threat levels related to Northern Ireland.[1] The threat level informs decisions on protective security measures taken by public bodies, the police and the transport sector.[9]

Threat levels
Threat level[10] Response[10]
Critical An attack is highly likely in the near future. Exceptional Maximum protective security. Critical measures to meet specific threats and to minimise vulnerability and risk
Severe An attack is highly likely. Heightened Additional and sustainable substantial and severe protective security measures reflecting the broad nature of the threat combined with specific business and geographical vulnerabilities and judgements on acceptable risk.
Substantial An attack is likely.
Moderate An attack is possible, but not likely. Normal Routine protective security. Low and moderate measures appropriate to the business concerned.
Low An attack is highly unlikely.

Threat Levels are decided using the following information:[1]

  • Available intelligence. It is rare that specific threat information is available and can be relied upon. More often, judgements about the threat will be based on a wide range of information, which is often fragmentary, including the level and nature of current terrorist activity, comparison with events in other countries and previous attacks. Intelligence is only ever likely to reveal part of the picture.
  • Terrorist capability. An examination of what is known about the capabilities of the terrorists in question and the method they may use based on previous attacks or from intelligence. This would also analyse the potential scale of the attack.
  • Terrorist intentions. Using intelligence and publicly available information to examine the overall aims of the terrorists and the ways they may achieve them including what sort of targets they would consider attacking.
  • Timescale. The threat level expresses the likelihood of an attack in the near term. We know from past incidents that some attacks take years to plan, while others are put together more quickly. In the absence of specific intelligence, a judgement will need to be made about how close an attack might be to fruition. Threat levels do not have any set expiry date, but are regularly subject to review in order to ensure that they remain current.

History

Threat levels were originally produced by MI5's Counter-Terrorism Analysis Centre for internal use within the British government. Assessments known as Security Service Threat Reports or Security Service Reports were issued to assess the level of threat to British interests in a given country or region. They had six levels: Imminent, High, Significant, Moderate, Low and Negligible. Following terrorist attacks in Indonesia in 2002, the system was criticised by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament (ISC) as insufficiently clear and needing to be of greater use to "customer departments".[11]

The 7 July 2005 London bombings prompted the government to update the threat level system following a recommendation from the ISC that it should deliver "a greater transparency of the threat level and alert systems as a whole, and in particular [it is recommended] that more thought is given to what is put in the public domain about the level of threat and required level of alert." The system was accordingly simplified and made easier to understand.[12] Since 2006, MI5 and the Home Office have published international terrorism threat levels for the entire UK on their websites, and since 2010 they have also published threat levels for Northern Ireland, with separate threat levels for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.[13]

2019 'New Reporting Format'

In July 2019 changes were made to the terrorism threat level system creating a 'New Format' of threat levels, to reflect the threat posed by all forms of terrorism, irrespective of ideology. There is now a single national threat level describing the threat to the UK, which includes Islamist, Northern Ireland, left-wing and right-wing terrorism.[1]

Changes to threat levels

The following table records changes to the threat levels from July 2019 – Present:

Date National Threat Level Northern Ireland-related Threat Level to Northern Ireland
23 July 2019 Severe Severe
4 November 2019 Substantial
3 November 2020 Severe[lower-alpha 1]
4 February 2021 Substantial
15 November 2021 Severe[lower-alpha 2]
9 February 2022 Substantial
22 March 2022 Substantial
28 March 2023[15] Severe[lower-alpha 3]

Old-Format, Historical Threat Levels

Since 2006, information about the national threat level has been available on the MI5 and Home Office websites. In September 2010 the threat levels for Northern Ireland-related terrorism were also made available. The following table records changes to the threat levels from August 2006 – July 2019 before the 'New Format' was put into place:[1]

DateNational Threat Level of International Terrorism Threat from Northern Ireland-related terrorism
in Northern Ireland in Great Britain
1 August 2006Severe Not Reported
10 August 2006Critical[lower-alpha 4]
13 August 2006Severe
30 June 2007Critical[lower-alpha 5]
4 July 2007Severe
20 July 2009Substantial
22 January 2010Severe
24 September 2010 Severe Substantial
11 July 2011Substantial
24 October 2012 Moderate
29 August 2014Severe
11 May 2016 Substantial
23 May 2017Critical[lower-alpha 6]
27 May 2017Severe
15 September 2017Critical[lower-alpha 7]
17 September 2017Severe
1 March 2018 Moderate
  1. Threat level increased following the 2020 Vienna attack.[14]
  2. Threat level increased following the Liverpool Women's Hospital bombing.[4]
  3. Threat level increased following the Shooting of John Caldwell.
  4. Threat level increased following the 2006 transatlantic aircraft plot.
  5. Threat level increased following the 2007 Glasgow Airport attack.
  6. Threat level increased following the Manchester Arena bombing.
  7. Threat level increased following the Parsons Green bombing.[16]

See also

Historic/Defunct:

References
  1. "Threat Levels". www.mi5.gov.uk. Retrieved 15 August 2021. Text was copied from this source, which is available under an Open Government Licence v3.0. © Crown copyright.
  2. Threat Levels Archived 11 June 2007 at the Wayback Machine, July 2006
  3. "Priti Patel confirms UK national terrorism threat reduced from severe to substantial - meaning attack 'likely'". Sky News. 9 February 2022.
  4. "Liverpool Women's Hospital explosion declared a terror incident". BBC News. 15 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  5. "Northern Ireland-related threat level The threat to Northern Ireland from Northern Ireland-related terrorism is severe". GOV.UK. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
  6. "Irish terror attack a 'strong possibility'". BBC News. 25 September 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  7. "Press Release: Increased risk of Irish-related terrorism". United Kingdom Home Office. 24 September 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
  8. Bunkall, Alistair (4 June 2016). "Was it a mistake to lower the UK terror threat before London Bridge attack?". Sky News. Retrieved 4 June 2016.
  9. Foley, Frank (2013). Countering Terrorism in Britain and France: Institutions, Norms and the Shadow of the Past. Cambridge University Press. p. 166. ISBN 978-1-107-02969-9.
  10. "Threat Levels and building response plans". GOV.UK. Retrieved 15 August 2021.
  11. Hennessey, Thomas; Thomas, Claire (2011). Spooks the Unofficial History of MI5 From the First Atom Spy to 7/7 1945–2009. Amberley Publishing Limited. pp. 228–9. ISBN 978-1-4456-0801-3.
  12. Staniforth, Andrew; Sampson, Fraser (2012). The Routledge Companion to UK Counter-Terrorism. Routledge. p. 276. ISBN 978-1-136-25430-7.
  13. "Threat levels". MI5. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
  14. Cascani, Dominic (3 November 2020). "UK terrorism threat level raised to severe'". BBC. Retrieved 16 August 2021.
  15. Jamie Grierson (28 March 2023). "Northern Ireland terrorism threat level rises to 'severe'". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 March 2023.
  16. Ward, Victoria (15 September 2017). "UK terror threat level raised to critical, meaning an attack is imminent, Prime Minister says'". The Telegraph. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
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