Uxbridge and South Ruislip (UK Parliament constituency)

Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a constituency in Greater London in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament.[n 1] The seat is currently represented by Steve Tuckwell of the Conservative Party with a majority of 495 after a by-election on 20 July 2023. The seat's previous holder, Boris Johnson (Conservative), had formally resigned after receiving a copy of the Standard Committee's report into Partygate, which recommended a recall petition. Johnson also served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2022.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Outline map
Boundary of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in Greater London
CountyGreater London
Electorate66,131 (December 2022) [1]
Major settlementsUxbridge, South Ruislip, Eastcote, Hillingdon, Yiewsley
Current constituency
Created2010
Member of ParliamentSteve Tuckwell (Conservative Party)
SeatsOne
Created from

Johnson's 2017 majority in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was 5,034 votes which was less than half his 2015 majority. After his election as Prime Minister, in the subsequent 2019 election Johnson retained the seat with an increased vote share of 52.6% and a majority of 7,210. He announced his resignation from his seat in June 2023, triggering a by-election.[2]

An estimate by the House of Commons Library puts the Leave vote by the constituency in the 2016 referendum at 57.2%.

History

The Conservative Party won in 2010 and 2015 by a margin of about 25%, and since 1970 the fourteen parliamentary elections in this constituency and its predecessor (the constituency of Uxbridge) were won by the Conservatives. The 2015 result gave the seat the 149th smallest majority of the Conservative Party's 331 seats by percentage of majority.[3]

2010-2017

In 2010, for the Uxbridge-born Conservative candidate John Randall, the one-party swing in the seat was 0.1% greater than that seen nationally – enough on the newly drawn constituency boundaries to provide 48.3% of the vote, and a majority of more than 11,000 votes. In the 2010 and 2015 elections, three (of 8 and 13 candidates respectively) attained 5% or more of the vote, thus retaining their deposits.

In 2014, Boris Johnson was selected to run in the seat; he was elected in 2015 with a swing of less than 1% to Labour and 50.2% of the vote. However, the 2017 election saw a 13.6% increase in Labour's vote share, although Johnson also increased his votes, which reduced Johnson's majority to only 5,034, less than half his 2015 margin and by far the lowest for a Conservative candidate in the area since 2001.

2019 general election

Boris Johnson became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on 24 July 2019, following the resignation of Theresa May.[4] His 2017 majority in Uxbridge and South Ruislip of 5,034 votes was the smallest of any sitting prime minister since 1924.[5] The main challenger in the seat was the Labour Party, whose 2019 candidate was Ali Milani. In April 2019, think-tank Onward classified the seat as "vulnerable" for the Conservatives,[6] while YouGov classified the seat on 27 November 2019 as "likely Conservative".[7] An article in The Independent on the same date inferred a 22.2% chance of Milani winning the seat from odds by bookmaker Paddy Power.[8] Johnson retained the seat with an increased vote share of 52.6% and an increased majority of 15%.

In 2019, two satirical candidates, Count Binface and Lord Buckethead, stood for election. Lord Buckethead is the name of a character in the 1984 movie Gremloids, and several previous UK election candidates have used the name, but Jon Harvey was prevented from standing again as Lord Buckethead after Gremloids creator Todd Durham asserted his rights over the character. Instead, Harvey stood as Count Binface and an Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate used the name Lord Buckethead.[9][10] On 6 December, Lord Buckethead encouraged constituents to vote for Labour candidate Ali Milani.[11][12] Also standing was William Tobin, who aimed to receive no votes. As an expatriate who has lived abroad for 15 years, he was not able to vote in UK elections, but could stand as a candidate. Tobin stood to raise awareness of disenfranchisement of voting rights for expatriates, as well as 16- and 17-year-olds and foreign nationals who live in the UK.[13][14] Tobin received five votes.

2023 by-election

On 9 June 2023, Johnson announced his intention to resign, triggering the 2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election.[15] The resignation occurred on 12 June 2023[16] and the by-election took place on 20 July 2023.[17] It was won by the Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell, although with vote share reduced from 52.6% in 2019 to 45.2%.

Boundaries

Most of the constituency came from that of Uxbridge, which was first established under the Redistribution of Seats Act 1885; however parts of the seat came from Ruislip-Northwood and Hayes and Harlington, both of which had been carved out of the Uxbridge seat in 1950. The 1950 changes reflected the area's growth in population since 1918, the previous national reorganisation of seats.

The boundaries of the constituency changed prior to the general election in 2010 as Parliament approved the Fifth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. Ickenham and parts of West Ruislip were allocated to the new seat of Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. Treating the constituency as the direct successor to the Uxbridge seat, it gained the electoral wards:

The seat comprises the following electoral wards:

The Boundary Commission for England 2018 review (see also Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies) provisionally recommended that the successor of the current constituency should be named Hillingdon and Uxbridge and include the following wards:

Constituency profile

The seat is in the Outer London commuter belt, is served by seven tube stations, and includes green spaces such as the Colne Valley regional park. In contrast to neighbouring Hayes and inner western suburbs, the area is without brutalist tower blocks. The highest density of buildings is found close to historic Uxbridge town centre, a hub in a seat that is ethnically diverse and prosperous, including on its outskirts Brunel University. Most of the borough electoral wards in the area vote Conservative, except for Uxbridge South, which returns Labour councillors. Workless claimants, registered jobseekers, were in November 2012 significantly lower than the national average of 3.8%, at 2.6% of the population based on a statistical compilation by The Guardian.[21]

The constituency voted to leave the European Union in 2016 with an estimated 57.2% of votes, according to a House of Commons Library report.[22] In August 2018, an analysis of YouGov polling by Focaldata suggested support for Remain had risen from 43.6% to 51.4%. Boris Johnson, former Prime Minister and Member of Parliament for the constituency, is a prominent Eurosceptic politician and was a key figure of the Vote Leave campaign in the run-up to the EU referendum on 23 June 2016; which resulted in a victory for the Leave campaign when the UK electorate voted in favour of British withdrawal from the European Union.[23]

Members of Parliament
Years Member Party
Constituency created from Uxbridge and Ruislip-Northwood
2010 John Randall Conservative
2015 Boris Johnson Conservative
2023 by-election Steve Tuckwell Conservative

Elections
Results over time

Elections in the 2020s
2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Steve Tuckwell 13,965 45.2 -7.4
Labour Danny Beales 13,470 43.6 +6.0
Green Sarah Green 893 2.9 +0.7
Reclaim Laurence Fox 714 2.3 New
Liberal Democrats Blaise Baquiche 526 1.7 -4.6
SDP Steve Gardner 248 0.8 New
Independent Kingsley Hamilton Anti-Ulez[lower-alpha 1] 208 0.7 New
Count Binface Count Binface 190 0.6 +0.5
Independent No-Ulez Leo Phaure[lower-alpha 1] 186 0.6 New
Rejoin EU Richard Hewison 105 0.3 New
Let London Live Piers Corbyn 101 0.3 New
Independent Cameron Bell 91 0.3 New
CPA Enomfon Ntefon 78 0.3 New
UKIP Rebecca Jane 61 0.2 -0.4
Climate Ed Gemmell 49 0.2 New
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope 32 0.1 -0.2
Independent 77 Joseph[lower-alpha 2] 8 0.0 New
Majority 495 1.6 -13.4
Turnout 30,925 46.2 Decrease17.3
Registered electors
Conservative hold Swing Decrease6.7

Elections in the 2010s

General election 2019: Uxbridge and South Ruislip[28][29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Boris Johnson 25,351 52.6 Increase1.8
Labour Ali Milani 18,141 37.6 Decrease2.4
Liberal Democrats Joanne Humphreys 3,026 6.3 Increase2.4
Green Mark Keir 1,090 2.2 Increase0.3
UKIP Geoffrey Courtenay 283 0.6 Decrease2.8
Monster Raving Loony Lord Buckethead 125 0.3 New
Independent Count Binface 69 0.1 New
Independent Alfie Utting 44 0.1 New
[30] Yace "Interplanetary Time Lord" Yogenstein 23 0.0 New
Independent Norma Burke 22 0.0 New
[30] Bobby Smith 8 0.0 New
[30] William Tobin[31] 5 0.0 New
Majority 7,210 15.0 Increase4.2
Turnout 48,187 68.5 Increase1.7
Registered electors 70,369
Conservative hold Swing Increase2.1

General election 2017: Uxbridge and South Ruislip[28][32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Boris Johnson 23,716 50.8 Increase0.6
Labour Vincent Lo 18,682 40.0 Increase13.6
Liberal Democrats Rosina Robson 1,835 3.9 Decrease1.0
UKIP Lizzy Kemp 1,577 3.4 Decrease10.8
Green Mark Keir 884 1.9 Decrease1.3
Majority 5,034 10.8 Decrease13.0
Turnout 46,694 66.8 Increase3.4
Registered electors 69,936
Conservative hold Swing Decrease6.5

General election 2015: Uxbridge and South Ruislip[33][34][35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Boris Johnson 22,511 50.2 Increase1.9
Labour Chris Summers[36] 11,816 26.4 Increase3.0
UKIP Jack Duffin 6,346 14.2 Increase11.5
Liberal Democrats Michael Cox 2,215 4.9 Decrease14.9
Green Graham Lee[37] 1,414 3.2 Increase2.1
TUSC Gary Harbord[38] 180 0.4 New
Independent Jenny Thompson[39] 84 0.2 New
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope[40] 72 0.2 New
Communities United Sabrina Moosun[39] 52 0.1 New
The Eccentric Party of Great Britain (UK) Lord Toby Jug[39] 50 0.1 New
Independent Michael Doherty[39] 39 0.1 New
The Realists' Party Jane Lawrence[39] 18 0.0 New
Independent James Jackson[39] 14 0.0 New
Majority 10,695 23.8 Decrease1.1
Turnout 44,811 63.4 Increase0.1
Registered electors 70,631
Conservative hold Swing Decrease0.5
General election 2010: Uxbridge and South Ruislip[41]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Randall* 21,758 48.3
Labour Sidharath Garg 10,542 23.4
Liberal Democrats Mike Cox 8,995 20.0
BNP Diane Neal 1,396 3.1
UKIP Mark Wadsworth 1,234 2.7
Green Mike Harling 477 1.1
English Democrat Roger Cooper 403 0.9
National Front Frank McCallister 271 0.6
Majority 11,216 24.9
Turnout 45,076 63.3
Registered electors 71,160
Conservative win (new seat)
Source: BBC News[42]
* Served as an MP in the 2005–2010 Parliament

See also

Notes
  1. A county constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)

References
  1. "Electoral Statistics, UK, December 2022". Office for National Statistics. 20 April 2023. Retrieved 16 July 2023.
  2. "Resignation statement in full as Boris Johnson steps down". BBC News. BBC News. 10 June 2023. Retrieved 13 June 2023.
  3. "Conservative Members of Parliament 2015". UK Political.info. Archived from the original on 8 June 2017. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
  4. Mason, Rowena (24 July 2019). "Boris Johnson becomes PM with promise of Brexit by 31 October". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 July 2019.
  5. Townsend, Mark (17 November 2019). "The view from Uxbridge: young voters battle to oust Johnson from his own seat". The Observer. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 17 November 2019.
  6. Chakelian, Anoosh (24 July 2019). "Meet Ali Milani, the millennial who could unseat Boris Johnson in Uxbridge". New Statesman. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
  7. Timsit, Annabelle (2 December 2019). ""I don't think he's got a hope in hell": A 25-year-old's quest to oust Boris Johnson". Quartz. Retrieved 2 December 2019.
  8. Moore, James (27 November 2019). "The bookies now think there's a higher chance that Boris Johnson could lose his seat – here's why". The Independent. Retrieved 1 December 2019.
  9. Cockburn, Harry (15 November 2019). "Count Binface: Former Lord Buckethead takes aim at election rival who took his name as he bids to unseat Boris Johnson". The Independent. Retrieved 1 December 2019.
  10. Morrison, Sean (15 November 2019). "Man behind Lord Buckethead to run in Boris Johnson's constituency under new alias... Binface". Evening Standard. Retrieved 1 December 2019.
  11. @LordBuckethead (6 December 2019). "HUMANS OF EARTH, HEED MY PARTY POLITICAL BROADCAST! [...]" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  12. Adams, Tim (7 December 2019). "The gloves are off in Uxbridge, but Johnson is nowhere to be found". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 December 2019.
  13. "Don't vote for me, says Boris Johnson's election rival". Ealing Times. 29 November 2019. Retrieved 2 December 2019.
  14. Rowland, Oliver (15 November 2019). "Briton in France stands against Boris Johnson". The Connexion. Retrieved 2 December 2019.
  15. "Boris Johnson stands down as MP with immediate effect". Sky News. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  16. "Boris Johnson formally steps down as MP | Boris Johnson | The Guardian". amp.theguardian.com. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  17. Salisbury, Josh (15 June 2023). "By-election date confirmed for Boris Johnson's London constituency". Evening Standard. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  18. "Uxbridge and South Ruislip". UK Polling Report. Archived from the original on 17 February 2011. Retrieved 21 April 2011.
  19. "Hillingdon and Uxbridge" (PDF). Retrieved 14 September 2016.
  20. "Hillingdon and Uxbridge". Retrieved 14 September 2016.
  21. Unemployment claimants by constituency The Guardian
  22. Dempsey, Noel (6 February 2017). "Brexit: votes by constituency". House of Commons Library. Retrieved 1 December 2019.
  23. Savage, Michael (11 August 2018). "More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to remain in EU". The Observer.
  24. Rufo, Yasmin (23 June 2023). "Uxbridge by-election full candidate list revealed". BBC News. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  25. "Candidate Kingsley Hamilton". Getty Images. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  26. "Candidate Leo Phaure". Getty Images. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  27. "Joseph77". Joseph77. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  28. "Uxbridge & Ruislip South parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
  29. "Commons Briefing Paper 8749. General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 28 January 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  30. This independent candidate left the optional Description field blank on the "Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF). London Borough of Hillingdon. Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 November 2019. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
  31. "I'm Standing!" (PDF). April 2020. Retrieved 16 May 2021.
  32. "Commons Briefing Paper 7979. General Election 2017: results and analysis" (PDF) (Second ed.). House of Commons Library. 29 January 2019 [7 April 2018]. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 November 2019.
  33. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  34. "London Borough of Hillingdon – Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency results 2015". Government of the United Kingdom. Archived from the original on 5 September 2017. Retrieved 22 April 2018.
  35. "Uxbridge & Ruislip South parliamentary constituency – Election 2015 – BBC News". BBC.
  36. "VOTE FOR CHRIS SUMMERS". VOTE FOR CHRIS SUMMERS.
  37. "Your Green candidates for May 2015". London Green Party. Archived from the original on 8 January 2015. Retrieved 25 February 2015.
  38. "TUSC parliamentary candidates in May 2015" (PDF). Tusc.org. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
  39. White, Lloyd (9 April 2015). "Statement of persons nominated and notice of poll. Election of a Member of Parliament for Uxbridge & South Ruislip Constituency". Hillingdon London Borough Council. Archived from the original on 18 April 2015. Retrieved 10 April 2015.
  40. "Monster Raving Loony's Howling Laud Hope's career". BBC. 27 November 2014.
  41. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  42. "Election 2010: Uxbridge & South Ruislip". BBC News. Retrieved 21 April 2011.
  1. Names "Anti-Ulez"[25] and "No-Ulez"[26] indicate opposition to London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
  2. Otherwise known as Thomas Faithful Darwood, his ballot name alludes to Pharaoh's dream interpreted by Joseph in the Book of Genesis.[27]

51.54°N 0.44°W / 51.54; -0.44

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