Warrington South (UK Parliament constituency)

Warrington South is a constituency[n 1] represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2019 by Andy Carter, a Conservative Party politician.[n 2]

Warrington South
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Outline map
Boundary of Warrington South in Cheshire
Outline map
Location of Cheshire within England
CountyCheshire
Electorate83,840 (2018)[1]
Major settlementsGreat Sankey, Penketh, Warrington
Current constituency
Created1983
Member of ParliamentAndy Carter (Conservative)
SeatsOne
Created fromWarrington, Runcorn and Newton[2]

Constituency profile

Warrington South is one of two seats covering the Borough of Warrington, the other being Warrington North. The seat covers the parts of the town lying south of the River Mersey, including Appleton, Grappenhall and Stockton Heath, the town centre and the Penketh and Sankey areas in the west of the town. It also includes the village of Lymm.

Warrington is a historic and industrious town which grew significantly in economy and in population in the 20th century. Workless claimants who were registered jobseekers, were in November 2012 lower than the national average of 3.8%, at 3.3% of the population based on a statistical compilation by The Guardian. This contrasted with Warrington North at 4.3% of its population.[3]

Creation

The constituency was created for the 1983 general election following the major reorganisation of local authorities under the Local Government Act 1972, which came into effect on 1 April 1974. It comprised parts of the abolished constituencies of Newton, Runcorn and Warrington.

Boundaries

1983–1997: The Borough of Warrington wards of Appleton and Stretton, Booths Hill, Grappenhall and Thelwall, Great Sankey North, Great Sankey South, Heatley, Latchford, Lymm, Penketh and Cuerdley, Statham, Stockton Heath, and Walton and Westy, and the Borough of Halton wards of Daresbury and Norton.[4]

Areas to the south of the Manchester Ship Canal, now part of the newly formed Borough of Warrington (including Lymm) and the Borough of Halton wards were previously part of Runcorn constituency. Great Sankey and Penketh, to the west of the town, were previously part of Newton. Also included a small part of the abolished Warrington constituency.

1997–2010: The Borough of Warrington wards of Appleton, Stretton and Hatton, Grappenhall and Thelwall, Great Sankey North, Great Sankey South, Howley and Whitecross, Latchford, Lymm, Penketh and Cuerdley, Stockton Heath, and Walton and Westy.[5]

Under the Fourth Periodic Review of constituencies, the number of constituencies in Cheshire was increased from 10 to 11 and the Borough of Halton wards were now included in the newly created constituency of Weaver Vale. To compensate for this loss, the town centre area was transferred from Warrington North.

2010–present: The Borough of Warrington wards of Appleton, Bewsey and Whitecross, Grappenhall and Thelwall, Great Sankey North, Great Sankey South, Hatton, Stretton and Walton, Latchford East, Latchford West, Lymm, Penketh and Cuerdley, Stockton Heath, and Whittle Hall.[6]

The current boundaries were introduced at the 2010 general election, following the Fifth Periodic Review. Minor changes due to revision of ward boundaries.

Political history

In 1983, the seat was won for the Conservatives by Mark Carlisle, who before the seat's creation had represented Runcorn. Carlisle served as Secretary of State for Education during part of the Thatcher ministry.

The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 7.5% of the vote since the 16.3% majority won in that year. The seat has changed hands three times since that year.

Warrington South is considered the more volatile of the two Warrington seats. While Warrington North is a safe seat for the Labour Party, Warrington South is often a bellwether and is regarded as a marginal constituency; it has been won by the largest party in each Parliament at every election with the exception of 1992, when it was taken by Labour's Mike Hall with a majority of just 0.3%, and again in 2017. Hall moved to the new Weaver Vale seat in 1997, but the seat was retained for the Labour party by Helen Southworth who represented the seat until her retirement at the 2010 election and successor candidate's defeat.

2010 election

On 15 June 2009, Helen Southworth announced her intention to retire the next year. Largely because of its close result in 2005, the seat was considered to be one of the key seats which the Conservative Party would have to win to become the largest party in Parliament. The BBC ranked Warrington South as the 85th most marginal seat.[7] The new boundaries were considered to be slightly more favourable to the Labour Party according to an academic, non-partisan election analysis.[8]

The Liberal Democrats had also identified Warrington South as a target seat. On election day the Liberal Democrat party held 22 of the 30 Borough Council seats in the wards which made up the constituency.[9] The importance of the Warrington South seat was underlined when Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat party leader, chose to visit the constituency the morning after the first of the televised "leaders' debates", which he had been widely perceived as having won.[10]

While all three parties made strenuous efforts to win the seat, it was the Conservative candidate David Mowat who was elected, although fewer than 5,000 votes separated all three parties.

Subsequent elections

In 2015 and 2017, the seat was considered an important Labour-Conservative marginal, the Liberal Democrats losing substantial ground here in both elections. The 2015 election saw Mowat re-elected with an increased majority; in 2017, it was regained by Labour's Faisal Rashid on a 4.4% swing. It was retaken for the Conservatives in 2019 by Andy Carter. In all three cases, the victory margin between first and second was smaller than overall vote of the third-placed Liberal Democrats, although the latter were a long way behind the top two parties.

Members of Parliament

ElectionMember[11] Party
1983Mark CarlisleConservative
1987Chris ButlerConservative
1992Mike HallLabour
1997Helen SouthworthLabour
2010David MowatConservative
2017Faisal RashidLabour
2019Andy CarterConservative

Note that Andy Carter will not be standing in the next General Election[12]

Elections

Elections in the 2010s
General election 2019: Warrington South[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Andy Carter 28,187 45.5 Increase1.2
Labour Faisal Rashid 26,177 42.3 Decrease6.1
Liberal Democrats Ryan Bate Sr 5,732 9.3 Increase3.9
Brexit Party Clare Aspinall 1,635 2.6 New
SDP Kevin Hickson 168 0.3 New
Majority 2,010 3.2 N/A
Turnout 61,899 72.0 Increase0.4
Conservative gain from Labour Swing Increase0.9
General election 2017: Warrington South[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Faisal Rashid 29,994 48.4 Increase9.3
Conservative David Mowat 27,445 44.3 Increase0.6
Liberal Democrats Bob Barr 3,339 5.4 Decrease0.2
Independent John Boulton 1,217 2.0 New
Majority 2,549 4.1 N/A
Turnout 61,995 72.4 Increase3.0
Labour gain from Conservative Swing Increase7.7
General election 2015: Warrington South[15][16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Mowat 25,928 43.7 Increase7.9
Labour Nick Bent 23,178 39.1 Increase6.1
UKIP Mal Lingley 4,909 8.3 Increase5.3
Liberal Democrats Bob Barr 3,335 5.6 Decrease21.9
Green Stephanie Davies 1,765 3.0 Increase2.2
TUSC Kevin Bennett 238 0.4 New
Majority 2,750 4.6 Increase1.8
Turnout 59,353 69.4 Increase1.2
Conservative hold Swing Increase5.8
General election 2010: Warrington South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Mowat 19,641 35.8 Increase3.7
Labour Nick Bent 18,088 33.0 Decrease8.3
Liberal Democrats Jo Crotty 15,094 27.5 Increase3.5
UKIP Derek Ashington 1,624 3.0 Increase1.2
Green Stephanie Davies 427 0.8 New
Majority 1,553 2.8 N/A
Turnout 54,874 68.2 Increase6.7
Conservative gain from Labour Swing Increase1.9

Elections in the 2000s
General election 2005: Warrington South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Helen Southworth 18,972 40.5 Decrease8.8
Conservative Fiona Bruce 15,457 33.0 0.0
Liberal Democrats Ian Marks 11,111 23.7 Increase7.4
UKIP Gerry Kelley 804 1.7 Increase0.3
Independent Paul Kennedy[n 3] 453 1.0 New
Majority 3,515 7.5 Decrease8.8
Turnout 46,797 61.8 Increase0.6
Labour hold Swing Decrease5.8
General election 2001: Warrington South[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Helen Southworth 22,419 49.3 Decrease2.8
Conservative Caroline Mosley 15,022 33.0 Increase0.5
Liberal Democrats Roger J. Barlow 7,419 16.3 Increase3.2
UKIP Joan Kelley 637 1.4 New
Majority 7,397 16.3 Decrease3.3
Turnout 45,497 61.2 Decrease14.8
Labour hold Swing Decrease1.7

Elections in the 1990s
General election 1997: Warrington South[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Helen Southworth 28,721 52.1 Increase8.5
Conservative Chris Grayling 17,914 32.5 Decrease10.8
Liberal Democrats Peter Walker 7,199 13.1 Increase0.6
Referendum Gerald Kelly 1,082 2.0 New
Natural Law Steve Ross 166 0.3 New
Majority 10,807 19.6 Increase19.3
Turnout 55,082 76.0 Decrease6.0
Labour hold Swing Increase8.1
General election 1992: Warrington South[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mike Hall 27,819 43.6 Increase7.7
Conservative Chris Butler 27,628 43.3 Increase1.3
Liberal Democrats Peter Walker 7,978 12.5 Decrease9.7
Natural Law Stephen Benson 321 0.5 New
Majority 191 0.3 N/A
Turnout 63,746 82.0 Increase6.8
Labour gain from Conservative Swing Increase6.8

Elections in the 1980s
General election 1987: Warrington South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chris Butler 24,809 42.0 Increase0.1
Labour Albert Booth 21,200 35.9 Increase5.9
Liberal Ian Marks 13,112 22.2 Decrease5.1
Majority 3,609 6.1 Decrease5.8
Turnout 59,121 75.2 Increase0.7
Conservative hold Swing Decrease2.9
General election 1983: Warrington South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Mark Carlisle 22,740 41.9
Labour David Colin-Thomé 16,275 30.0
Liberal Ian Marks 14,827 27.3
Ecology Neil Chantrell 403 0.7
Majority 6,465 11.9
Turnout 54,245 74.5
Conservative win (new seat)

See also

Notes
  1. A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer).
  2. As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.
  3. Later, in 2006 Paul Kennedy joined the Conservative Party and became a local councillor in May 2008.

References
  1. "England Parliamentary electorates 2010-2018". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  2. "'Warrington South', June 1983 up to May 1997". ElectionWeb Project. Cognitive Computing Limited. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
  3. Unemployment claimants by constituency The Guardian
  4. "Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1983" (PDF).
  5. "Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1995".
  6. "Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007".
  7. "BBC NEWS - Election 2010 - Battlegrounds - Conservative Party Targets". bbc.co.uk.
  8. Electoral Calculus South
  9. "2009 - 2010 > Full Council". warrington.gov.uk.
  10. "Nick Clegg makes first post TV debate appearance in Warrington". Warrington Guardian.
  11. Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "W" (part 1)
  12. https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/23557173.mp-andy-carter-will-not-stand-re-election-warrington-south/
  13. "Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF).
  14. "General Election 2017: who is standing for election". Liverpool Echo. 11 May 2017.
  15. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  16. "Warrington South". BBC News. Retrieved 10 May 2015.
  17. "Results & Constituencies Warrington South - 2001". news.bbc.co.uk. Archived from the original on 4 September 2019. Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  18. "UK General Election results April 1992". Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Retrieved 6 December 2010.

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