uncertainty

Examples of uncertainty in the following topics:

• Responding to Uncertainty in Strategic Planning

  • Uncertainty exists when there is more than one possible outcome; it is best managed using scenario-planning tools.
  • Management specialists define uncertainty as a state of having limited knowledge such that it is impossible to exactly describe an existing state or future outcomes or to determine which of several possible outcomes will happen.
  • It is still possible, however, to measure uncertainty—by assigning a probability to each possible state or outcome to estimate its likelihood.
  • The second component, uncertainties, involves indeterminable factors such as future interest rates, outcomes of political elections, rates of innovation, fads in markets, and so on.
  • Recognize the inevitability of uncertainty in strategic planning, alongside planning for effective responses to these uncertainties

• Making Decisions Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty

  • Conditions of risk and uncertainty frame most decisions rendered by management.
  • Uncertainty is a state of having limited knowledge of current conditions or future outcomes.
  • Managers often deal with uncertainty in their work; to minimize the risk that their decisions will lead to undesired outcomes, they must develop the skills and judgment necessary for reducing this uncertainty.
  • One approach to dealing with uncertainty is to put off decisions until data become more accessible and reliable.
  • Managing uncertainty in decision-making relies on identifying, quantifying, and analyzing the factors that can affect outcomes.

• Considering the Environment

  • Considerations of the external environment—including uncertainty, competition, and resources—are key in determining organizational design.
  • Complexity theory postulates that organizations must adapt to uncertainty in their environments.
  • Alternatively, a fixed and specific approach to organizational design will capture more value in a mature market, where variability and uncertainty are limited.

• Non-Rational Decision Making

  • Because decisions often involve uncertainty, individual tolerance for risk becomes a factor.
  • Robust decision making (RDM) is a particular set of methods and tools developed over the last decade—primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation—that is designed to support decision making and policy analysis under conditions of deep uncertainty.

• The GLOBE Project

  • Uncertainty avoidance is the extent to which members of an organization or society strive to avoid uncertainty by reliance on social norms, rituals, and bureaucratic practices to alleviate the unpredictability of future events.

• Cultural Intelligence

  • Uncertainty avoidance index (UAI): Tolerance for uncertainty and ambiguity is a critical element of a society's ability to react to certain management styles and situations, providing an important measurement for understanding how much micromanagement may be useful.

• Forecasting

  • While both are managerial functions, forecasting is rife with external uncertainty while planning is hindered by internal uncertainty.

• Types of Organizational Culture

  • Uncertainty avoidance: Uncertainty avoidance describes an organization's comfort level with risk-taking.

• Project Management Inventory

  • Uncertainty - Inventories are maintained as buffers to meet uncertainties in demand, supply, and movements of goods.

• The Value of Analytics in Decision Making

  • Predictive analytics are particularly useful when there is a high degree of uncertainty.