forecasting

Examples of forecasting in the following topics:

• Forecasting

  • An important and often overlooked aspect of forecasting is the relationship it holds with planning.
  • Whether or not this is true would have to be supported with data, but the forecast is that Q2 consumer spending results could forecast Q3 GDP growth.
  • Forecasting plays a role in the implementation of policies and strategies.
  • This flow chart compares quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods.
  • Demonstrate the value and role of effective forecasting in the development of successful strategies

• Financial and Budgetary Controls

  • Some tools that project managers can use to control finances and budget include payback period and other financial forecasting calculations, and budgeting techniques, including variance analysis.
  • Financial forecasting calculations, such as payback periods, calculate the period of time required for the return on an investment to repay the sum of the original investment.
  • Net present value (NPV) is a financial forecasting calculation that does include the time value of money.
  • This is a complex financial forecasting model that derives real rate of return using interest and inflation to localize currency chronologically.
  • It is important for a project manager to conduct these financial forecasting calculations and budgeting controls to identify budgetary constraints well before costs are incurred and to secure funding from top management.

• Overview of Strategic Planning Tools

  • Forecasting is the the most common strategic tool and it should be considered whenever projects are being designed.
  • Forecasting, simply put, is projecting the future of a project by leveraging all of the available knowledge to generate a likelihood of success.
  • Incorporating concepts such as forecasting and benchmarking in conjunction with larger corporate strategy frameworks such as SMART goals and MBO will equip strategists with a strong short-term and long-term approach.

• Planning a Project

  • This stage includes predicting the time investment, costs, specific resources required, and the necessary inputs to achieve the outputs forecasted in the initiation stage.
  • By appropriately incorporating each stage of the model into the planning process, managers can effectively forecast the deliverable, and they can avoiding losing value by accurately assessing the margins that will be produced in a given strategic initiative.

• Fulfilling the Planning Function

  • Planning combines forecasting of developments with preparing scenarios for how to react to those developments.
  • An important, albeit often ignored, aspect of planning is the relationship it holds with forecasting.
  • Forecasting can be described as predicting what the future will look like, whereas planning predicts what the future should look like.

• Defining Intrapreneurship

  • In many ways, the benefits of intrepreneurship are difficult to forecast and thus difficult to justify.

• Assessing an Organization's Technological Needs

  • Technology Forecasting - identifying applicable technologies for the company, potentially through scouting.

• Defining Management

  • From this perspective, Henri Fayol (1841–1925) considers management to consist of six functions: forecasting, planning, organizing, commanding, coordinating, and controlling.
  • Controlling/monitoring: Checking current outcomes against forecast plans and making adjustments when necessary so that goals are achieved.

• The Challenge of Technology

  • The capacity to forecast up-and-coming technologies to construct an investment road map that always keeps the competition a technological step behind
  • Developing new technologies in-house is particularly relevant to industries on the cutting edge (e.g., semiconductors, green energy initiatives, TVs, etc.), while forecasting is more critical for the users/consumers of these industries on the business level.

• Sourcing Technology

  • Technology scouting is essentially forecasting technological developments through information gathering.