1999 New Brunswick general election

The 1999 New Brunswick general election was held on June 7, 1999, to elect 55 members to the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

1999 New Brunswick general election
June 7, 1999
55 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
28 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout75.59% [1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
NDP
Leader Bernard Lord Camille Thériault Elizabeth Weir
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since 1997 1997 1988
Leader's seat Moncton East Kent South Saint John Harbour
Last election 6 48 1
Seats won 44 10 1
Seat change Increase38 Decrease38 Steady
Popular vote 209,008 146,934 34,526
Percentage 53.0% 37.3% 8.8%
Swing Increase22.1% Decrease14.3% Decrease0.9%
Map of New Brunswick's ridings coloured in based on the winning parties and their popular vote
Premier before election

Camille Thériault
Liberal

 Premier after election

Bernard Lord
Progressive Conservative

Rendition of party representation in the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.
  Progressive Conservatives (44)
  Liberals (10)
  New Democrats (1)

Campaign

The election marked the debut of both Camille Thériault and Bernard Lord as leaders of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives respectively. It was Elizabeth Weir's third general election as leader of the New Democratic Party.

Thériault's Liberals were widely expected to win a fourth majority government from the outset of the campaign, and opinion polls showed them leading by double but Lord's Tories were able to capitalize on the issue of highway tolls and use it to portray the Liberals as arrogant. Lord made an effective wedge issue on tolls, saying they were unfair to people who lived near the toll booths and had to drive through them daily and also as an example of arrogance and uncaring from the Liberals. Lord then pledged to implement 20 of his key promises in his first 200 days in office, he styled this as "200 Days of Change", a message which was modelled on the Contract with America and the Common Sense Revolution, and it resonated with voters. Another disadvantage for the Liberals was the loss of former premier Frank McKenna, who had retired after 10 years in office in 1997. McKenna was very popular and Thériault had difficulty shaking negative comparisons between himself and his predecessor.

Following a huge surge in the final weeks of the campaign, Lord became Premier with his party winning its largest majority in the history of New Brunswick. Lord's tories also won the majority of Acadian seats, something the PC Party in New Brunswick had struggled to do in the past.

Lord's win was 44 of 55 seats, at 80% a huge majority, was viewed as remarkable by all parties. Thériault, who came off in the campaign as cold and uncharismatic, made what pundits thought was his best speech of the campaign on election night when he said "the people of New Brunswick have spoken, and the people of New Brunswick are never wrong". However, Lord's massive victory caused a domino effect which resulted in the defeat of many Liberals who had been viewed by pundits as undefeatable.

Opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm Last day
of survey		 Source NBPC NBLA NBNDP CoR Other ME Sample
Election 1999 June 7, 1999 53.0 37.3 8.8 0.7 0.2
Omnifacts June 1999 [2] 49 40 7 — — 3.2 901
Léger May 26, 1999 [3] 33 46 15 — — 3.9 603
Omnifacts May 1999 [4] 46 39 13 1.5 — 3.6 779
Omnifacts May 1999 [5] 45 37 13 1 — 3.6 850
Baseline Market Research May 1999 [5] 36.8 46.7 14.9 1.6 — 3.5 443
May 11, 1999 [6] 33 51 10 — 6 4.8 —
Corporate Research Associates March 1999 [7] 28 51 8 — — 4.9 —
Baseline Market Research January 13, 1999 [8] 32 51 14 3 — 4.5 500
Corporate Research Associates November 30, 1998 [9] 25 51 13 — — 3.4 806
Corporate Research Associates August 24, 1998 [10] 20 56 14 — — 4.9 405
Corporate Research Associates June 1998 [11] 21 49 19 — — 3.4 402
Corporate Research Associates February 24, 1998 [12] 30 43 20 — — 3.0 800
Election 1995 September 11, 1995 30.87 51.63 9.65 7.11 0.75

Moncton East by-election
Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm Last day
of survey		 Source NBPC NBLA NBNDP CoR ME Sample
By-election 1998 October 19, 1998 50.93 39.73 9.34 —
SES Canada Research October 14, 1998 [13] 49 40 11 — 5.7 301
Election 1995 September 11, 1995 18.02 61.80 11.82 8.36

Summary of results
Party Party Leader # of
candidates		 Seats Popular Vote
1995 Dissolution Elected % Change # % Change
  Progressive Conservative Bernard Lord 55 6 9 44 +289% 209,008 53.0% +22.1%
  Liberal Camille Theriault 55 48 45 10 -77% 146,934 37.3% -14.3%
  New Democratic Elizabeth Weir 55 1 1 1 - 34,526 8.8% -0.9%
Confederation of Regions Jim Webb 18 - - - - 2,807 0.7% -6.4%
  Natural Law Christopher Collrin 9 - - - - 527 0.1% -0.2%
  Independents n/a 4 - - - - 435 0.1% -0.3%
Total 196 55 55 55 - 394,237 100% +1.2%
Popular vote
PC
 
 53.02%
Liberal
 
 37.27%
New Democratic
 
 8.76%
Conf. of Regions
 
 0.71%
Others
 
 0.24%
Seats summary
PC
 
 80.00%
Liberal
 
 18.18%
New Democratic
 
 1.82%

Narrow wins and losses

A lot of Liberals, many high profile, lost their seats by very narrow margins while some barely survived. Below is a list of the 14 ridings (over a quarter of all districts) decided by less than 10%. Incumbent Liberal cabinet ministers are in bold, other incumbents are in italics.

Riding Winner Second Place Margin
Dieppe-Memramcook      Cy LeBlanc      Greg O'Donnell 4.4%
Fredericton North D. Peter Forbes Brad Woodside 4.4%
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak Eric MacKenzie Greg Byrne 4.1%
Fundy Isles Eric Allaby Ed Brine 2.2%
Grand Falls Region Jean-Guy Laforest Marcel Deschênes 5.8%
Grand Lake David Jordan Doug Tyler 6.9%
Kent South Camille Thériault Jean-Noel Allain 7.4%
Nepisiguit Joel Bernard Alban Landry 4.7%
Nigadoo-Chaleur Roland Haché Hermel Vienneau 7.5%
Restigouche West Benoit Cyr Jean-Paul Savoie 3.7%
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac Rose-May Poirier Maurice Richard 1.8%
Saint John Champlain Carole Keddy Roly MacIntyre 2.2%
Victoria-Tobique Larry Kennedy Carman Pirie 5.8%
Western Charlotte Tony Huntjens Peter Heelis 6.1%

Candidates

Party leaders and cabinet ministers are denoted in bold.

Northern New Brunswick
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
1. Restigouche West Jean-Paul Savoie 3,328 Benoît Cyr 3,592 Rose Duguay 255   Jean-Paul Savoie
2. Campbellton Edmond Blanchard 4,321 Pierre F. Dubé 2,569 Johanne Parent 295   Edmond Blanchard
3. Dalhousie-Restigouche East Carolle de Ste. Croix 2,830 Dennis Furlong 5,148 Joel William Hickey 190 Francine Richard (NLP) withdrawn Carolle de Ste. Croix
4. Nigadoo-Chaleur Roland Haché 3,435 Hermel Vienneau 2,862 Raoul Charest 1,244 Gilles Godin (NLP) 106 Albert Doucet
5. Bathurst Marcelle Mersereau 3,418 Bob Stairs 2,427 Antoine Duguay 453   Marcelle Mersereau
6. Nepisiguit Alban Landry 2,227 Joel Bernard 2,534 Gilles Halley 1,824   Alban Landry
7. Caraquet Bernard Theriault 4,194 Gaston Moore 3,369 Denis Doiron 596   Bernard Theriault
8. Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou Jean-Camille DeGrâce 2,563 Paul Robichaud 5,910 Calixte Chaisson 368   Jean-Camille DeGrâce
9. Centre-Péninsule Denis Landry 2,097 Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,045 Roger Duguay 955   Denis Landry
10. Tracadie-Sheila Serge Rousselle 2,926 Elvy Robichaud 5,453 Claudette Duguay 285   Elvy Robichaud

Eastern New Brunswick
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
11. Miramichi Bay Danny Gay 3,066 Réjean Savoie 4,014 Donald D. Doucet 365   Danny Gay
12. Miramichi-Bay du Vin James Doyle 3,076 Michael Malley 5,393 John Gagnon 147   James Doyle
13. Miramichi Centre John McKay 2,975 Kim Jardine 4,076 Terry Mullin 853   John McKay
14. Southwest Miramichi Reg MacDonald 2,850 Norman Betts 4,019 Terry Carter 254   Reg MacDonald
15. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac Maurice Richard 2,700 Rose-May Poirier 2,820 Maria Daigle 1,197   Kenneth Johnson
16. Kent Shawn Graham 3,264 Valmond Daigle 2,471 Charles Richard 402 J.R. Beers (Ind) 103 Shawn Graham
17. Kent South Camille Thériault 4,546 Jean-Noël Allain 3,838 Collette Doucette 1,171   Camille Thériault
18. Shediac-Cap-Pélé Bernard Richard 5,422 Odette Babineau 3,240 Anne Marie Dupuis 633   Bernard Richard

Southeastern New Brunswick
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
19. Tantramar Kirk W. Meldrum 925 Peter Mesheau 3,311 Heather Patterson 990 Frank Comeau (Ind) 47 Peter Mesheau
20. Dieppe-Memramcook Greg O'Donnell 4,738 Cy LeBlanc 5,206 Marc LeBel 754   Greg O'Donnell
21. Moncton East Kevin John Fram 2,046 Bernard Lord 5,248 Marc Robar 542 Laurent Maltais (NLP) 59 Bernard Lord
22. Moncton South James E. Lockyer 2,710 Joan MacAlpine 3,143 Theresa Sullivan 687   James E. Lockyer
23. Moncton North Gene Devereux 2,304 René Landry 3,776 Nancy Hartling 1049 John Gallant (CoR) 103 Gene Devereux
24. Moncton Crescent Kenneth R. MacLeod 2,233 John Betts 4,825 Carl Fowler 699 Albert H. Wood (CoR) 85 Kenneth R. MacLeod
25. Petitcodiac Gary Stewart Armstrong 1,171 Wally Stiles 4,284 Blair McInnis 447 Donald R. Alward (CoR) 278 Hollis Steeves
26. Riverview Al J. Kavanaugh 2,151 Pat Crossman 4,439 Brad Smith 888 Shane Harvey (CoR) 137

Jamie Ed Borden (Ind) 81

 Al J. Kavanaugh
27. Albert Harry Doyle 2,065 Wayne Steeves 3,633 Myrna Geldart 529 Dean Ryder (CoR) 136 Harry Doyle
28. Kings East LeRoy Armstrong 2,420 Doug Cosman 4,310 Jessica Coleman 354 Eldon MacKay (CoR) 109 LeRoy Armstrong

Greater Saint John & Fundy Coast
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
29. Hampton-Belleisle Georgie Day 2,628 Bev Harrison 4,551 Jocelyne Comeau 769   Georgie Day
30. Kennebecasis Peter LeBlanc 2,388 Brenda Fowlie 4,070 Albert Charles Joseph Comeau 939 Greg Boyle (CoR) 192 Peter LeBlanc
31. Saint John-Fundy Stuart Jamieson 1,933 Rodney Weston 3,473 Robert E. Holmes-Lauder 494 David Lytle (CoR) 115 Stuart Jamieson
32. Saint John-Kings Zita Longobardi 1,752 Margaret-Ann Blaney 4,605 Ken Wilcox 664   Laureen Jarrett
33. Saint John Champlain Roly MacIntyre 1,949 Carole Keddy 2,073 Dr. Paula C. Tippett 1,597 Dolores H. Cook (CoR) 98

Jeanne Geldart (NLP) 36

 Roly MacIntyre
34. Saint John Harbour Mark Thomas McNulty 1,347 Tim Clarke 1,349 Elizabeth Weir 2,398 Thomas Mitchell (NLP) 54 Elizabeth Weir
35. Saint John Portland Leo McAdam 1,668 Trevor Holder 3,773 Pam F. Coates 844 Miville Couture (NLP) 45 Leo McAdam
36. Saint John Lancaster Jane Barry 2,190 Norm McFarlane 3,999 Bill Farren 945 Jim Webb (CoR) 154

Christopher B. Collrin (NLP) 96

 Jane Barry
37. Grand Bay-Westfield Grace Losier 1,433 Milt Sherwood 3,546 Percy Ward 490 Colby Fraser (CoR) 240 Milt Sherwood
38. Charlotte Sheldon Lee 3,263 Sharon Tucker 2,071 Eugene A. Dugas 299   Sheldon Lee
39. Fundy Isles Eric Allaby 1,248 Ed Brine 1,192 Bill Barteau 66   Eric Allaby
40. Western Charlotte Peter Heelis 3,071 Tony Huntjens 3,490 Andrew Gordon Graham 283   Ann Breault

Greater Fredericton
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
41. Oromocto-Gagetown Ron Lindala 2,059 Jody Carr 4,372 Terry John Hovey 283 Paul Pye (CoR) 151 Vaughn Blaney
42. Grand Lake Doug Tyler 3,245 David Charles Jordan 3,769 Phyllis MacLean 384 Murray C. Barton (CoR) 223 Doug Tyler
43. Fredericton North Brad Woodside 3,698 D. Peter Forbes 4,081 Todd Joseph Tingley 632 Ronald Bubar (CoR) 203

William Parker (NLP) 34

 Jim Wilson
44. Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak Greg Byrne 2,685 Eric MacKenzie 2,949 Pat A. Kennedy 715 David Alexander Brown (CoR) 96

Andie Haché (NLP) 31

 Greg Byrne
45. Fredericton South Lorraine Siliphant 2,510 Brad Green 4,070 Myrna Gunter 1,409 Michael McKay (NLP) 66 Brad Green
46. New Maryland Joan Kingston 3,077 Keith Ashfield 4,223 Carol E. Moore 441 George Rennick (CoR) 182 Joan Kingston
47. York John Flynn 3,783 Don Kinney 4,332 Josh Johnson 449 Malcolm MacNeil (CoR) 88 John Flynn
48. Mactaquac David Olmstead 2,385 Kirk MacDonald 4,405 Sandra Burtt 463 Wilmot F. Ross (CoR) 217 David Olmstead

Upper Saint John River Valley
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
LiberalPCNDPOther
49. Woodstock James W. Andow 1,989 David Alward 5,354 Sheila Moore 242   Bruce Atherton Smith
50. Carleton David Harvey 3,240 Dale Graham 4,561 Marilyn Young 176   Dale Graham
51. Victoria-Tobique Larry Kennedy 3,127 Carmen Cecil Pirie 2,768 Amy Dunham 144 Carter Charles Edgar (Ind) 204 Larry Kennedy
52. Grand Falls Region Marcel Deschênes 3,094 Jean-Guy Laforest 3,493 Jean-Paul Gallant 265   Paul Duffie
53. Madawaska-la-Vallée Huguette Plourde 1,798 Percy Mockler 4,367 Jean-Charles Lombard 189   Percy Mockler
54. Edmundston Roland Beaulieu 2,173 Madeleine Dubé 3,567 Michael Gagné 366   Bernard Valcourt
55. Madawaska-les-Lacs Georges Corriveau 2,138 Jeannot Volpé 4,289 Marie-Pierre Valay-Nadeau 154   Jeannot Volpé

References
  1. "Provincial Election Results - Elections NB". February 5, 2014.
  2. Cox, Kevin (June 7, 1999). "Liberal 'cakewalk' looks more like an uphill climb: New Brunswick election is too close to call though Theriault at first looked certain to win". The Globe and Mail. p. A7.
  3. Cox, Kevin (June 1, 1999). "Polls suggest N.B. Liberals in tough fight with Tories: Conservatives say results have given new energy to campaign; Grits believe team now working harder to win June 7 vote". The Globe and Mail. p. A11.
  4. "New Brunswick: Tories take lead in polls". The Times Colonist. May 29, 1999. p. A9.
  5. Poitras, Jacques (May 29, 1999). "Poll gives PCs first lead since Hatfield". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.
  6. Cox, Kevin (June 18, 1999). "New Brunswick Tory Leader calls for tax cuts Lord tries to cut Liberals' lead by arguing that high provincial rates drive away doctors and nurses". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
  7. "Liberals' popularity up slightly: poll". The Telegraph Journal. March 9, 1999.
  8. White, Alan (January 21, 1999). "Pollster finds Liberals are main choice". The Telegraph Journal.
  9. Hrabluk, Lisa; Veniot, Andre (December 8, 1998). "Liberal popularity dips in latest poll". The Telegraph Journal.
  10. Veniot, Andre (September 2, 1998). "Liberals' approval rating jumps". The Telegraph Journal.
  11. Goguen, Giselle (June 13, 1998). "Theriault should wait to call election, poll indicates". The Telegraph Journal.
  12. Richardson, Don (May 29, 1999). "Poll tracks steady Liberal decline". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.
  13. Hrabluk, Lisa (October 17, 1998). "Moncton East going down to the wire: poll". The Telegraph Journal.
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