2005 ED224

2005 ED224 was the soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impacting Earth. On 11 March 2023 the line of variations (LOV) showed a 1-in-500,000 chance of impact.[2] It is estimated to be 54-meters in diameter and has a short observation arc of 3-days. On 11 March 2023 it was nominally expected to be 2.7 AU (400 million km) from Earth but had an uncertainty region billions of kilometers long.[5] Since it has not been observed since 2005 and has an orbital period of 2.6±0.3 years,[3] we do not know where on its orbit 2005 ED224 is. Between 2005 and 2023 it could have orbited the Sun 6.2 to 7.8 times. On 11 March 2030 it has a 1-in-6,300,000 chance of impact but is expected to be 3.5 AU (520 million km) from Earth (near the asteroid's farthest distance from the Sun).[6] On 10 March 2064 it has a 1-in-2,600,000 chance of impact but is expected to be 3.2 AU (480 million km) from Earth.

2005 ED224
Discovery[1]
Discovered byLINEAR (704)
1.0-m Reflector
Discovery siteLincoln Lab's ETS
Discovery date13 March 2005
Designations
2005 ED224
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 16 March 2005 (JD 2453445.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc3.1 days[2]
Aphelion3.17±0.26 AU (Q)
Perihelion0.649±0.003 AU (q)
1.91±0.16 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.66±0.03 (e)
2.6±0.3 years
20°±3° (M)
Inclination31.9°±1.1° (i)
170.53°±0.06° (Ω)
277.3°±0.9° (ω)
Earth MOID0.0013 AU (190,000 km) ?
Jupiter MOID2.9 AU (430,000,000 km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~54 m (180 ft)?[2]
  • 40–90 meters
23.99 (JPL)[3]
24.3 (MPC)[4]

    It was first observed on 13 March 2005 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.056 ± 0.006 AU (8.38 ± 0.90 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 137 degrees.

    Virtual impactors (past and future)[2]
    Date Impact
    probability
    (1 in)    		 JPL Horizons
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 NEODyS
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 MPC[7]
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 Find_Orb
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 uncertainty[8]
    region
    (3-sigma)
    2018-03-112.4 million1.7 AU (250 million km)1.7 AU (250 million km)1.4 AU (210 million km)1.2 AU (180 million km)± 5 billion km
    2023-03-11500 thousand2.7 AU (400 million km)[5]2.7 AU (400 million km)[9]0.95 AU (142 million km)4.0 AU (600 million km)[10]± 3 billion km[5]

    The 11 March 2018 virtual impactor did not occur.[2] The line of variation (LOV) for 2018 was billions of kilometers long and wrapped around the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth. The 2023 line of variation (LOV) was also billions of kilometers long and stretched around the asteroid's known orbit.[11]

    See also

    References
    1. "MPEC 2005-F06 : 2005 ED224". IAU Minor Planet Center. 16 March 2005. Retrieved 27 March 2021. (K05EM4D)
    2. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2005 ED224". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 27 March 2021. (Wayback Machine 2005)
    3. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2005 ED224)" (last observation: 2005-03-16; arc: 3 days). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 27 March 2021. Retrieved 27 March 2021.
    4. "2005 ED224 Orbit". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 27 March 2021.
    5. "Horizons Batch for 2023-03-11 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 20 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#8/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-14 generates RNG_3sigma = 2.5E9 for 2023-Mar-11.)
    6. "Horizons Batch for 2030-03-11 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
    7. "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
    8. Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
      RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = 2.54E9 for 2023-Mar-11.)
    9. "2005ED224 Ephemerides for March 2023". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 27 March 2021.
    10. "Find_Orb for 2023-03-11". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 20 April 2021. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
    11. 2005 ED224 most likely will be on other side the Sun.
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