2006 Venezuelan presidential election

• Jesús Caldera Infante the former president of FOGADE, representing the New Progressive Alliance. On 29 November, he withdrew his candidacy and backed Rosales.[2]
• Benjamín Rausseo a stand-up comedian, endorsed by the newly formed "PIEDRA" party. Three weeks before the election, in accordance with a campaign pledge he had made earlier (to stand down if not placed first or second in the opinion polls), he withdrew his candidacy without endorsing either Chávez or Rosales, telling his supporters to vote for either.[3]

Civil society organization Súmate recommended procedures for a primary, to be held on 13 August 2006, to choose the opposition candidate for the December 2006 presidential elections.[4] Teodoro Petkoff, a Chávez critic, said that Súmate's procedure was authoritarian, comparing it to the Carmona Decree.[5] Nine other candidates agreed to the terms for holding a primary, confirming their desire to allow the citizens to choose the opposition candidate. Another candidate condemned Petkoff's remarks against Súmate, saying that Petkoff's statements did not help the country, and explaining that the conditions for holding a primary had been previously discussed between all of the candidates, including Petkoff.[4][6] On 9 August, Súmate announced that the 13 August primary election would not be held, since the candidates had decided to back Manuel Rosales as the single opposition candidate. Machado said that the primary "initiative accomplished its goal and that Súmate would continue working to ensure clean elections and respect for citizens' rights".[7]

Chávez's campaign manager Rafael Lacava said that the campaign was to be based on defending Venezuela's national sovereignty and promoting world peace. According to Unión Radio, Lacava added that a campaign theme was to be the "country's freedom to no longer be a North American colony".[8] According to the Associated Press, Chávez launched his campaign "with warnings that Washington is trying to undermine December's presidential vote and destabilize Venezuela", saying "I am the candidate of the revolution and without a doubt I am the candidate of the national majority", dismissing other candidates as "tools of the U.S. government".[9] El Universal reports that Chávez said, "In this electoral process there are two candidates only, namely Hugo Chávez and George W. Bush".[10]

Chávez promised that if elected he would personally convoke a midterm recall referendum in the year 2010 without the need for petition signatures as was the case with the 2004 recall referendum, and that he won that recall referendum, he would then call for a referendum to ask the people for indefinite re-election to be put into the constitution. On 26 November Chávez made his final rally in Caracas. Reuters estimated that hundreds of thousands participated.[11] Chávez supporters packed several streets.

Rosales said that the backbone of his government program was to be the social arena, saying it will be a "sound and well defined" program, including a "fair allocation of oil revenues by means of two axes– minimum wage for all unemployed and direct contribution to the underprivileged".[12] The latter being promoted as Mi Negra which is a debit card handed out to the poor with monthly deposits from 20% of oil industry profits. Nevertheless, a poll shows 59% of the Venezuelan people rejected the Mi Negra program, preferring stable jobs.[13] According to the Los Angeles Times, Rosales stated that Chávez was vulnerable on his "massive foreign aid programs, government-approved takeovers of land and buildings, and the perception that crime is increasing". Rosales said, "We will distribute land to the peasants, but we will buy it in such a way as to respect the principle of private property, just as we will respect those of human rights and social justice". Rosales would halt oil giveaways, "including sales of discounted oil to Cuba, until Venezuela reduced its high poverty rate".[14]

The Associated Press reports that Rosales accuses Chávez of "overspending on a military buildup" and pledged "to use Venezuela's oil wealth to help the poor and improve education and health care", ridiculing Chávez's "claims of a possible war with the U.S." and saying, "Venezuela's real war should be against rampant street crime".[15] Rosales held several large rallies around the country; the largest being "Las Avalanchas" in Caracas.[16] Rallies were held in several states to try to get the Rosales campaign to be heard by as many people as possible. To close his election campaign, Manuel Rosales held a huge final rally in Caracas with an estimate by the Associated Press to be in the hundreds of thousands.[17]

Rosales demanded a public debate, saying Chávez should choose the TV channel where the debate would be broadcast. He also said "I am waiting for him (Chávez) to have a debate with me broadcast by all the TV channels to allow Venezuelans to know what is the project and the vision of the country he has and the project and vision we have". Chávez declared he would not debate Rosales because "the candidates from the opposition do not even have the condition to debate a schoolboy or girl in sixth grade from a Bolivarian school".[18][19]

Chávez launched his campaign with a slogan of 10 Millones de votos (10 million votes),[20] On multiple occasions the campaign used the more combative "10 millones por el buche" (10 million votes down their throats). On 17 August 2006, while leading the oath at the national campaign headquarters (Commando Miranda), Chávez acknowledged that 10 million votes would be hard to attain.[10]

From 9 October, Chávez campaign used the slogans por amor (for love) and Chávez, victoria de Venezuela (Chávez, Venezuela's victory). They also used the slogan uh, ah, Chávez no se va (ooh, oh, Chávez won't go) from the 2004 recall referendum campaign.[21][22] A poll conducted by Cifras Escenarios reported that 76.7% of Venezuelans liked the love message.[23] The English translation of the message is as follows:

Always, I have done everything out of love.
For the love of trees and rivers, I became a painter.
For the love of knowledge, studies, I left my dearest village, to study.
For the love of sports I became a ball player.
For the love of the motherland I became a soldier.
For the love of the people I became President, you made me President.
I have ruled these years out of love.
For love we did Barrio Adentro.
For love we did Mission Robinson.
For love we did Mercal.
We have done everything for love.
There is a lot left to do. I need more time.
I NEED YOUR VOTE. YOUR VOTE FOR LOVE.

Atrévete con Manuel Rosales is the Rosales campaign slogan.[24]

¡Ni el imperio, ni el barbudo! (Neither the [U.S.] empire, nor the [Cuban] bearded one!) is a slogan used by Rosales in launching his campaign, intended to "hit Chávez where the Venezuelan comandante is most vulnerable: his penchant for giving away billions of dollars to foreign countries, while nearly half of the Venezuelan people live in poverty" referring to subsidized oil deals to both Cuba and the United States. "We are not going to be the empire's defenders," Rosales said. "The empire must respect our sovereignty, and we must respect the empire," and "we cannot be looking at societies like Cuba as a model to be copied. We want modernity, transformation, development."[25]

• Democratic Action[33]

International markets largely saw a Chávez victory. Rafael de la Fuente of BNP Paribas stated "The market expects a Chávez victory, they don't even question it". Ricardo Amorim of WestLB Research "The vision I see is that of a 20-point victory... We would be surprised if he does not win". Patrick Esteruelas of Eurasia Group saw Chávez winning by 60 percent. Also arguing that a high turnout would benefit Chávez, Goldman Sachs dismissed the close polling arguing, "Chávez is the favorite to win the election due to vast control of logistical and financial state resources, and influence over key institutions".[55]

Opposition candidates and political parties voiced concerns over possible inaccuracies of the national electoral registry. Previous elections had shown that there might be a great number of deceased people still on the records. A review process started in mid-2006 where the CNE asked all the public universities of Venezuela to conduct also an external review of the electoral registry. However, the review project presented by the Central University of Venezuela, Simón Bolívar University and the Andrés Bello Catholic University was rejected by the CNE. One of the proposed methods by these institutions was comparing census data with the electoral registry.[70]

The CNE performed an audit with the aid of seven other public universities and with the Carter Center and two senators from the Belgian parliament observing the audit. The senators were Jacinta de Roeck, independent, and Sfia Bouarfa, from the French-speaking Socialist Party.[71]

In June 2006, a privately funded preliminary study by Genaro Mosquera, a statistics professor at the Central University and member of the political party Democratic Action,[72] claimed that in the last three years the registry grew 27% compare to a population growth of only 7.3% during those years and also a much larger growth than the regular increase of the registry of 12% every five years between 1948 and 2000. One of the flagship government Bolivarian Missions was Mission Identidad, where roughly 5 million citizens were awarded an ID card and the right to register and vote.[73] Also, by comparing the official population numbers provided with by the Office of National Statistics with the CNE registry, there seems to be more register voters of 45 years of age and over than actual population.[70]

According to NGO Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) preliminary results of a comparison between the Electoral Registry and demographic projections of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) suggests that inconsistencies in the voter data base cannot modify the results of the election.[74]

The opposition claimed there was unfair pressure by the government against governmental workers who might not want to support the president. They released a video that showed energy minister and head of PDVSA, Rafael Ramírez, telling state oil workers to back President Hugo Chávez or to leave their jobs. He also said PDVSA is red "from top to bottom"(PDVSA es roja, rojita de arriba abajo). He also said that PDVSA's "workers are with this revolution, and those who aren't should go somewhere else. Go to Miami." Opposition media outlets have been repeating the 14-minute video over and over again. President Chávez said he supported the PDVSA director and recommended him to make the same speech to oil workers 100 times a day.[75] The CNE opened an investigation into Rafael Ramírez following the protests from the opposition[76] and Ramírez was eventually fined.[77]

Even though a fair number of international observers were present, the CNE instituted an open and public series of audits of the vote results. Each one of the 11,118 automated polling places was equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines, one to a "mesa electoral," or "voting table." In total, 32,331 voting machines were in use country-wide. After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close.[78] Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.

After the polls close at any voting table, the following steps are carried out:[78]

• The DRE voting machine is ordered to close the voting session.
• Tally scrutinization announced.
• Each voting machine prints an original tally sheet, each has a voter total and the number of votes cast for each candidate cast in that particular machine/table.
• Each voting machine is connected to the network and the results are sent to the vote counting center.
• Nine extra tally sheets are printed and distributed to the staff and the six representatives of the candidates that received the most votes.
• With the original tally sheet in hand the total number of votes cast is compared to the signed up sheet or electoral notebook. Finally, for those machines chosen for the audit (see below) the electoral ballots, or paper trails, are counted one by one to determine if they add up to the totals in the tally sheet. Any anomaly is mentioned in the tally sheet report, signed by the staff and auditors, and then sealed and given to the military for delivery to the CNE.

Once the tally scrutinization is complete the staff proceeds to perform a random paper ballot audit of 54.31% of the machines. Each voting center can have anywhere from one to twelve voting machines, occasionally up to fifteen. The staff randomly selects the tables/machines by drawing a number out of a paper hat. The size of the draw is dependent on the number of tables/machines.[78]

The following procedures occur step by step:[78]

• Polls closed
• Tally scrutinization finishes
• Random paper ballot audit announced
• The machines are randomly selected drawing numbers out of a paper hat
• The machine's serial number is recorded
• The corresponding paper ballot box is selected and opened
• The paper ballots results for each candidate are openly counted
• With the original tally printed from the electronic results, both results are audited
• Any anomaly (even if by one vote) is recorded in the audit report
• The original audit report is signed by staff and observers, officially sealed and handed to the military for delivery to the CNE
• Copies are handed over to the representatives of the two highest vote getters.