2008 Lyne by-election

The 2008 Lyne by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Lyne on 6 September 2008.[1] This was triggered by the resignation of National Party MP Mark Vaile.[2] The by-election was held on the same day as the Mayo by-election, and the Western Australian state election.

2008 Lyne by-election
6 September 2008
  First party Second party
 
NAT
Candidate Rob Oakeshott Rob Drew
Party Independent National
Popular vote 47,306 16,964
Percentage 63.80% 22.88%
Swing Increase 63.80 Decrease 29.38
TPP 73.87% 26.13%
TPP swing Increase 73.87 Decrease 32.45
Lyne (green) within New South Wales
MP before election

Mark Vaile
National

 Elected MP

Rob Oakeshott
Independent

The writ for the by-election was issued on 4 August, with the rolls closing on 8 August. Candidate nominations closed 14 August.[3] The by-election was contested on the same boundaries drawn for Lyne at the 2007 federal election. At that election, the National Party won the seat over the Labor Party by a two-party preferred margin of 58.58% to 41.42%.

The election was won by independent candidate Rob Oakeshott.

Background

Vaile first won the seat of Lyne at the 1993 election for the Nationals in a very close contest with the Liberal candidate. In ministerial positions since 1997, he became leader of the National Party and thus Deputy Prime Minister in the Howard government from 2005. At the 2007 federal election, the opposition Labor Party defeated the incumbent Liberal-National coalition government. This marked the first change of government in over 11 years. Following the coalition election defeat, Vaile announced on 19 July 2008 his intention to resign his seat, to take effect on 30 July 2008. This followed Peter McGauran in Gippsland and former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer in Mayo.

Candidates
Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[4]
Party Candidate Background (Not shown on ballet paper)
  Fishing Party Bob Smith Retired builder.
  Citizens Electoral Council Graeme Muldoon Farmer, contested Lyne in 2007.
  Independent Stewart Scott-Irving Education consultant, contested Lyne in 2007.
  Democratic Labor Party Michael Patrick O'Donohue Teacher
  Independent Rob Oakeshott Former state Nationals turned Independent MP for Port Macquarie since 1996.[5] He polled more than two-thirds of the primary vote as an independent in his state seat at the last two elections, and his seat makes up more than half of Lyne. ABC political analyst Antony Green described Oakeshott as the "clear favourite", and "highly likely" to win the by-election.[6][7] The Nationals admitted he posed a big threat.[8] Upon announcing his candidacy, federal Nationals leader Warren Truss labelled Oakeshott a "Labor patsy".[9] Oakeshott did not direct his preferences to any candidate.[10] Attacks upon Oakeshott by the Nationals increased in the last week of campaigning.[11]
  Australian Greens Susie Russel Local environmentalist, contested Lyne in 2007.[12]
  National Party of Australia Rob Drew Former Port Macquarie mayor.[13]
  Independent Barry Wright Retired, contested Lyne in 2007.

Neither the Labor Party nor the Liberal Party stood a candidate.[13][14]

Results

Oakeshott obtained a majority of votes in every polling booth, with the exception of Dyers Crossing, receiving about two-thirds of the primary vote and three-quarters of the two-candidate vote.[15]

The distribution of preferences in the by-election resulted in the election of Rob Oakeshott.
2008 Lyne by-election [16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Independent Rob Oakeshott 47,306 63.80 +63.80
National Rob Drew 16,964 22.88 −29.38
Greens Susie Russell 5,206 7.02 −0.13
Fishing Party Bob Smith 2,566 3.46 +3.46
Democratic Labor Michael O'Donohue 853 1.15 +1.15
Independent Barry Wright 582 0.78 −0.46
Independent Stewart Scott-Irving 400 0.54 +0.12
Citizens Electoral Council Graeme Muldoon 270 0.36 +0.13
Total formal votes 74,147 96.55 +1.62
Informal votes 2,646 3.45 −1.62
Turnout 76,793 87.31 −8.62
Two-candidate-preferred result
Independent Rob Oakeshott 54,770 73.87 +73.87
National Rob Drew 19,377 26.13 −32.45
Independent gain from National SwingN/A

See also

References
  1. "By-elections to be held on September 6". Australian Associated Press. 31 July 2008.
  2. Vaile quits politics | Herald Sun Archived 21 July 2008 at the Wayback Machine
  3. "By-elections to be held on 6 September: The Age, 31 July 2008". News.theage.com.au. 31 July 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  4. "Lyne by-election Candidates". AEC. 8 June 2007. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  5. "Nationals in danger of losing Vaile's seat: ABC News 5 August 2008". Abc.net.au. 5 August 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  6. Mclennan, David (6 August 2008). "Party 'jihad' to confront Independent at by-election: Canberra Times 6 August 2008". Canberratimes.com.au. Archived from the original on 7 August 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  7. "2008 Lyne By-election: Antony Green ABC". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  8. "Oakeshott likely to contest Lyne by-election: ABC News 3 August 2008". Abc.net.au. 3 August 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  9. "Oakeshott is a Labor patsy says Truss: The Age 5 August 2008". News.theage.com.au. 5 August 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  10. "Oakeshott rules out preference deal: ABC News 19 August 2008". Abc.net.au. 19 August 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  11. Matthew Clayfield (1 September 2008). "Nationals attack 'Labor stooge' in Lyne poll: The Australian 1/9/2008". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 15 December 2012. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  12. "Greens unanimously endorse Lyne candidate: ABC News 28 July 2008". Abc.net.au. 28 July 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  13. "Nats name candidate for Lyne by-election". News.smh.com.au. 2 August 2008. Retrieved 19 July 2010.
  14. "Liberals avoid Lyne by-election". ABC. 8 August 2008.
  15. "AEC Results: Lyne by-election 2008". Archived from the original on 20 November 2008. Retrieved 6 September 2008.
  16. "2008 Lyne by-election". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 29 May 2022.
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