2010 Oregon gubernatorial election
The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.
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 County results Kitzhaber: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80% Dudley: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Oregon |
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The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.
Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.
Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon
- Bill Bradbury, former Oregon Secretary of State
- Roger Obrist
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | John Kitzhaber | Bill Bradbury | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall | May 8–10, 2010 | 53% | 23% | 22% |
| Survey USA | May 7–9, 2010 | 59% | 25% | 12% |
Results
Results by county:
Kitzhaber—80–90%
Kitzhaber—70–80%
Kitzhaber—60–70%
Kitzhaber—50–60%
Kitzhaber—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Kitzhaber | 242,545 | 64.78 | |
| Democratic | Bill Bradbury | 110,298 | 29.46 | |
| Democratic | Roger Obrist | 16,057 | 4.29 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 5,504 | 1.47 | |
| Total votes | 374,404 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Chris Dudley sign
Candidates
- Chris Dudley, former professional basketball player
- Allen Alley, businessman and deputy chief of staff to Governor Ted Kulongoski
- Clark Colvin, business executive
- William Ames Curtright
- Bob Forthan
- Darren Karr, small business owner
- John Lim, former Oregon State Senator and unsuccessful nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998
- Bill Sizemore, 1998 Republican nominee for Governor of Oregon
- Rex O. Watkins, real estate agent
Polling
| Poll source | Date administered | Chris Dudley | Allen Alley | John Lim | Bill Sizemore | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall | May 8–10, 2010 | 33% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 24% |
| Survey USA | May 7–9, 2010 | 42% | 24% | 8% | 8% | 14% |
Results
Results by county:
Dudley—60–70%
Dudley—50–60%
Dudley—40–50%
Dudley—<40%
Alley—<40%
Alley—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Dudley | 122,855 | 39.11 | |
| Republican | Allen Alley | 99,753 | 31.76 | |
| Republican | John Lim | 47,339 | 15.07 | |
| Republican | Bill Sizemore | 23,522 | 7.49 | |
| Republican | William Ames Curtright | 12,497 | 3.98 | |
| Republican | Rex O. Watkins | 3,060 | 0.97 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 2,001 | 0.64 | |
| Republican | Clark Colvin | 1,206 | 0.38 | |
| Republican | Darren Karr | 1,127 | 0.36 | |
| Republican | Bob Forthan | 727 | 0.23 | |
| Total votes | 314,087 | 100.00 | ||
Independent Party primary
Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.[4] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,[5] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.[6] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.[4]
Candidates
- John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon
- Jerry Wilson, businessman
- Richard Esterman, photographer
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Kitzhaber | 850 | 38.39 | |
| Independent | Richard Esterman | 438 | 19.78 | |
| Independent | Write-ins | 314 | 14.18 | |
| Independent | None of the above | 312 | 14.09 | |
| Progressive | Jerry Wilson | 300 | 13.55 | |
| Total votes | 2,214 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election
Candidates
- Chris Dudley (Republican), former professional basketball player
- John Kitzhaber (Democratic, Independent Party of Oregon), former Governor of Oregon
- Greg Kord (Constitution), industrial piping designer
- Wes Wagner (Libertarian), systems administrator
Campaign
Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.[8] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.[9]
Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.
Newspaper endorsements
| Newspaper | Endorsement | |
|---|---|---|
| The Oregonian (Portland) | John Kitzhaber[10] | |
| Willamette Week (Portland) | John Kitzhaber[11] | |
| Portland Tribune | John Kitzhaber[12] | |
| The Register-Guard (Eugene) | John Kitzhaber[13] | |
| Statesman Journal (Salem) | Chris Dudley[14] | |
| Mail Tribune (Medford) | John Kitzhaber[15] | |
| The Bulletin (Bend) | Chris Dudley[16] | |
| East Oregonian (Pendleton) | John Kitzhaber[17] | |
| The Lake Oswego Review | John Kitzhaber[18] | |
| The News-Review (Roseburg) | John Kitzhaber[19] | |
| The Outlook (Gresham) | John Kitzhaber[20] | |
| The Daily Astorian | John Kitzhaber[21] | |
| Corvallis Gazette-Times | John Kitzhaber[22] | |
| News-Register (McMinnville) | Chris Dudley[23] | |
| The Sandy Post | John Kitzhaber[24] | |
| Beaverton Valley Times | John Kitzhaber[25] | |
| West Linn Tidings | John Kitzhaber[26] | |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[27] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[28] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[29] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[31] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Margin of error | John Kitzhaber (D) |
Chris Dudley (R) |
Other candidate(s) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis & Hibbitts | October 30–31, 2010 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | ||
| Survey USA | October 23–28, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 2% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 25, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 3% | 3% |
| Hibbitts | October 24–25, 2010 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 2% | 12% |
| Elway Research | October 18–19, 2010 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 3% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 16–17, 2010 | ± 2.8% | 48% | 47% | 5% | |
| Survey USA | October 12–14, 2010 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 4% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 10, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 4% |
| Survey USA | September 12–14, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 49% | 5% | 3% |
| Riley Research | August 31 – September 9, 2010 | ± 5.0% | 40% | 39% | 5% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 8, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | 2% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 22, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 3% | 8% |
| Grove Insight | August 18–21, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
| Survey USA | July 25–27, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 46% | 7% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 26, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 5% | 4% |
| Magellan Strategies | June 28, 2010 | ± 3.2% | 40% | 41% | 10% | 9% |
| Davis, Hibbits and Midghall Archived June 26, 2010, at the Wayback Machine | June 21, 2010 | unk | 41% | 41% | 6% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 17, 2010 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 47% | 4% | 4% |
| Survey USA | June 7–9, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 40% | 47% | 6% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 20, 2010 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 4% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 26, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 4% | 4% |
| Moore Insight | February 20–21, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 33% | 21% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 17, 2010 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 36% | 7% | 15% |
Statewide results
Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Kitzhaber | 716,525 | 49.29% | -1.43% | |
| Republican | Chris Dudley | 694,287 | 47.76% | +5.01% | |
| Constitution | Greg Kord | 20,475 | 1.41% | -2.23% | |
| Libertarian | Wes Wagner | 19,048 | 1.31% | +0.09% | |
| Write-ins | 3,213 | 0.22% | |||
| Majority | 22,238 | 1.53% | -6.45% | ||
| Turnout | 1,453,548 | ||||
| Democratic hold | Swing | ||||
County results
Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.[32]
| County | Kitzhaber | Votes | Dudley | Votes | Kord | Votes | Wagner | Votes | Various | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker | 26.8% | 1,949 | 68.1% | 4,816 | 2.6% | 187 | 2.3% | 166 | 0.3% | 21 | 7,276 |
| Benton | 59.4% | 21,498 | 38.0% | 13,767 | 1.1% | 399 | 1.2% | 448 | 0.2% | 77 | 36,189 |
| Clackamas | 44.3% | 69,250 | 53.4% | 83,516 | 1.1% | 1,686 | 1.0% | 1,547 | 0.2% | 288 | 156,287 |
| Clatsop | 51.3% | 7,654 | 45.5% | 6,792 | 1.3% | 196 | 1.6% | 166 | 0.2% | 37 | 14,913 |
| Columbia | 44.4% | 8,973 | 51.0% | 10,302 | 2.4% | 493 | 1.8% | 368 | 0.3% | 54 | 20,190 |
| Coos | 41.3% | 10,456 | 53.9% | 13,652 | 2.4% | 618 | 2.3% | 583 | 0.1% | 34 | 25,343 |
| Crook | 26.1% | 2,314 | 70.3% | 6,231 | 1.7% | 152 | 1.6% | 144 | 0.2% | 21 | 8,862 |
| Curry | 38.8% | 3,986 | 56.0% | 5,761 | 2.7% | 275 | 2.4% | 245 | 0.1% | 14 | 10,281 |
| Deschutes | 38.1% | 24,289 | 59.1% | 37,706 | 1.3% | 861 | 1.3% | 815 | 0.2% | 112 | 63,783 |
| Douglas | 32.5% | 14,072 | 63.3% | 27,438 | 2.2% | 952 | 1.9% | 807 | 0.2% | 66 | 43,335 |
| Gilliam | 32.0% | 308 | 64.4% | 620 | 2.6% | 25 | 0.7% | 7 | 0.2% | 2 | 962 |
| Grant | 21.6% | 749 | 74.3% | 2,576 | 2.5% | 86 | 1.4% | 50 | 0.2% | 8 | 3,469 |
| Harney | 23.8% | 800 | 72.3% | 2,436 | 2.3% | 76 | 1.4% | 48 | 0.2% | 8 | 3,368 |
| Hood River | 56.7% | 4,778 | 40.7% | 3,434 | 1.1% | 95 | 1.2% | 103 | 0.2% | 17 | 8,427 |
| Jackson | 41.7% | 32,360 | 55.0% | 42,715 | 1.8% | 1,389 | 1.4% | 1,117 | 0.1% | 109 | 77,690 |
| Jefferson | 32.3% | 2,132 | 64.2% | 4,240 | 1.7% | 110 | 1.7% | 110 | 0.2% | 10 | 6,602 |
| Josephine | 34.7% | 11,558 | 60.2% | 20,025 | 3.1% | 1,018 | 1.9% | 646 | 0.1% | 43 | 33,290 |
| Klamath | 25.1% | 5,820 | 70.4% | 16,295 | 2.4% | 560 | 1.8% | 428 | 0.2% | 55 | 23,158 |
| Lake | 21.0% | 658 | 74.2% | 2,323 | 2.6% | 80 | 2.0% | 64 | 0.3% | 6 | 3,131 |
| Lane | 57.0% | 81,731 | 40.0% | 57,394 | 1.3% | 1,855 | 1.4% | 2,045 | 0.3% | 488 | 143,513 |
| Lincoln | 53.0% | 10,484 | 43.2% | 8,540 | 1.8% | 347 | 2.0% | 389 | 0.2% | 31 | 19,791 |
| Linn | 34.8% | 14,466 | 61.1% | 25,370 | 2.2% | 898 | 1.7% | 708 | 0.3% | 110 | 41,552 |
| Malheur | 24.4% | 1,884 | 70.4% | 5,440 | 3.2% | 246 | 2.0% | 157 | 0.1% | 5 | 7,732 |
| Marion | 44.4% | 44,795 | 52.7% | 53,177 | 1.5% | 1,530 | 1.2% | 1,192 | 0.2% | 242 | 100,936 |
| Morrow | 26.8% | 850 | 68.8% | 2,184 | 2.7% | 87 | 1.5% | 48 | 0.2% | 6 | 3,175 |
| Multnomah | 70.6% | 198,157 | 27.4% | 76,915 | 0.8% | 2,149 | 1.0% | 2,879 | 0.3% | 750 | 280,850 |
| Polk | 43.4% | 12,899 | 53.7% | 15,966 | 1.5% | 456 | 1.1% | 336 | 0.2% | 67 | 29,724 |
| Sherman | 26.3% | 238 | 70.1% | 634 | 1.7% | 15 | 1.9% | 17 | 0.1% | 1 | 905 |
| Tillamook | 46.0% | 5,072 | 50.8% | 5,604 | 1.5% | 163 | 1.6% | 173 | 0.2% | 19 | 11,031 |
| Umatilla | 32.1% | 6,321 | 63.8% | 12,574 | 2.2% | 441 | 1.6% | 320 | 0.2% | 47 | 19,703 |
| Union | 31.6% | 3,366 | 64.5% | 6,869 | 2.1% | 221 | 1.5% | 165 | 0.3% | 31 | 10,652 |
| Wallowa | 28.6% | 1,088 | 67.9% | 2,581 | 2.1% | 79 | 1.1% | 43 | 0.2% | 9 | 3,800 |
| Wasco | 43.2% | 4,024 | 53.1% | 4,938 | 1.7% | 161 | 1.7% | 156 | 0.3% | 27 | 9,306 |
| Washington | 49.6% | 92,811 | 48.1% | 89,926 | 1.1% | 1,977 | 1.1% | 1,983 | 0.2% | 336 | 187,033 |
| Wheeler | 28.6% | 216 | 66.3% | 500 | 2.9% | 22 | 2.0% | 15 | 0.1% | 1 | 754 |
| Yamhill | 39.7% | 14,519 | 57.2% | 20,893 | 1.6% | 570 | 1.3% | 492 | 0.2% | 61 | 36,535 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
- Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
- Marion (largest city: Salem)
- Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
- Wasco (largest city: The Dalles)
See also
References
- Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
- "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
- "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
- "IPO primary FAQ". Archived from the original on September 25, 2010. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
- "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
- "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
- "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2016.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
- Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
- "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian. Portland. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Save Our State!". Willamette Week. Portland. October 13, 2010. Archived from the original on November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
- "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
- "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard. Eugene. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal. Salem. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune. Medford. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin. Bend. October 15, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". East Oregonian. Pendleton. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review. Roseburg. October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook. Gresham. October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register. McMinnville. October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
- "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
- "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
- "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
- "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
External links
- Oregon Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Oregon Governor from Follow the Money
- Oregon Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- Election 2010: Oregon Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Oregon Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Oregon Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
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