2015 Madeiran regional election

2015 Madeiran regional election
	29 March 2015
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira; 24 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	49.6% 7.8 pp
	The most voted party in each municipality.
President before election; Alberto João Jardim; PSD	President-designate ; Miguel Albuquerque; PSD

A regional election was held in Madeira on 29 March 2015, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election was the first in which the former President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim, was not on the ballot as he earlier stated that he would step down as President and leader of the PSD-Madeira in January 2015.[1] On 29 December 2014, the PSD-Madeira elected Miguel Albuquerque as the new president of the party's regional section.[2] After winning the presidency, Albuquerque stated that he would not assume the Presidency of the Government without an election,[3] so Alberto João Jardim asked President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to dissolve the Parliament and call an election, which was scheduled for 29 March.[4]

The campaign for the regional legislative election in Madeira ran from 15 to 27 March 2015.

The results showed that the Social Democrats were reelected for the 11th time in a row and, again, with an absolute majority of 24 seats, against the 25 seats won in 2011. The People's Party was again the second most voted party and the coalition between the Socialists and other smaller parties called Change suffered a huge defeat by winning fewer votes and seats compared to the combined total of the parties in 2011. Together for the People was the surprise of the election winning 10.3% of the vote and winning 5 seats. The Unitary Democratic Coalition increase their result by one MP and the Left Bloc returned to the regional parliament with 2 seats.[5]

The turnout in these elections was the lowest ever, with 49.6% of voters casting a ballot.

Electoral system

The 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[6]

Parties

The parties that contested the election, and their leaders, were:[7]

Change (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT), Victor Freitas
Citizen Platform (PPM-PDA), Miguel Fonseca
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
New Democracy Party (PND), Baltazar Aguiar
Workers' Communist Party (PCTP/MRPP), Alexandre Caldeira
Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada
National Renovator Party (PNR), Álvaro Araújo
People's Party (CDS–PP), José Manuel Rodrigues
Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
Socialist Alternative Movement (MAS), José Carlos Gonçalves Jardim
Together for the People (JPP), Filipe Sousa

Opinion polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Opinion polls

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Firm	PSD	CDS-PP	PS[lower-alpha 1]	PTP[lower-alpha 1]	CDU	PND	PAN[lower-alpha 1]	MPT[lower-alpha 1]	BE	JPP	Others	Lead
Date(s) Conducted	Polling Firm											Others	Lead
29 March 2015	Election Results	44.4	13.7	11.4	w. PS	5.5	2.1	w. PS	w. PS	3.8	10.3	8.8	30.6
21–23 Mar	Universidade Católica	49.0	11.0	18.0	w. PS	5.0	2.0	w. PS	w. PS	3.0	6.0	6.5	31.0
16–18 Mar	Eurosondagem	46.7	12.5	19.5	w. PS	4.8	1.6	w. PS	w. PS	2.5	5.5	6.9	27.2
9–12 Mar	Eurosondagem	43.3	11.1	22.5	w. PS	4.8	1.7	w. PS	w. PS	2.2	7.7	6.7	20.8
2015
11–14 Nov	Eurosondagem	33.1	16.9	26.6	4.6	5.5	1.8	2.6	2.3	2.5	Did not exist	4.1	6.5
3–5 Nov	Eurosondagem	30.9	17.0	27.0	5.5	5.2	2.3	2.1	1.7	2.5		5.8	3.9
18–22 Jul	Eurosondagem	32.1	17.9	22.6	3.6	5.2	2.2	2.6	5.7	2.1		6.0	9.5
25 May 2014	EP Elections	31.0	w. PSD	22.6	6.6	4.8	2.3	3.3	10.0	3.7		15.7	8.4
8–14 Jan	Eurosondagem	33.9	20.1	25.5	4.0	5.3	2.1	1.3	1.2	2.2		4.4	8.4
2014
29 September 2013	Local Elections	34.8	13.0	25.8	0.7	5.3	—	1.2	1.6	0.4		17.2	9.0
2013
24–25 May	Eurosondagem	43.9	21.2	13.5	4.4	3.9	3.7	2.4	2.3	2.6		2.1	22.7
2012
9 October 2011	Election Results	48.6	17.6	11.5	6.9	3.8	3.3	2.1	1.9	1.7		2.6	31.0

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 24 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira.

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Firm	PSD	CDS-PP	PS[lower-alpha 1]	PTP[lower-alpha 1]	CDU	PND	PAN[lower-alpha 1]	MPT[lower-alpha 1]	BE	JPP	Others
Date(s) Conducted	Polling Firm											Others
29 March 2015	Election Results	24	7	6	w. PS	2	1	w. PS	w. PS	2	5	0
21–23 Mar	Universidade Católica	23 / 27	4 / 6	8 / 10	w. PS	2 / 3	0 / 1	w. PS	w. PS	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 1
16–18 Mar	Eurosondagem	24 / 25	6 / 7	10 / 11	w. PS	2	0 / 1	w. PS	w. PS	1	2 / 3	0
9–12 Mar	Eurosondagem	22 / 23	5 / 6	11 / 12	w. PS	2	0 / 1	w. PS	w. PS	1	4	0
2015
9 October 2011	Election Results	25	9	6	3	1	1	1	1	0	Did not exist	0

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2011	2015	±	2011	2015	±	2011	2015	±
Total	23.47%	17.21%	6.26 pp	43.46%	37.48%	5.98 pp	57.38%	49.58%	7.80 pp

Sources[8][9]

Summary of votes and seats

Summary of the 29 March 2015 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results
Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	2011	2015	±	%	±	MPs %/ votes %
	Social Democratic	56,574	44.36	4.2	25	24	1	51.06	2.1	1.15
	People's	17,488	13.71	3.9	9	7	2	14.89	4.3	1.09
	Change Coalition^[A]	14,573	11.43	11.0	11	6	5	12.77	10.6	1.12
	Together for the People	13,114	10.28	—	—	5	—	10.64	—	1.03
	Unitary Democratic Coalition^[B]	7,060	5.54	1.8	1	2	1	4.25	2.1	0.77
	Left Bloc	4,849	3.80	2.1	0	2	2	4.25	4.3	1.12
	New Democracy	2,635	2.07	1.2	1	1	0	2.13	0.0	1.04
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	2,137	1.67	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Socialist Alternative Movement	1,715	1.34	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	National Renovator	1,052	0.82	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Citizen Platform^[C]	903	0.71	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
Total valid		122,100	95.74	1.6	47	47	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		1,116	0.87	0.2
Invalid ballots		4,323	3.39	1.5
Total		127,539	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		257,232	49.58	7.8
^A Coalition between the PS, PTP, PAN and the MPT. The 11 seats from 2011 are the sum of PS, PTP, PAN and MPT seats. ^B Portuguese Communist Party (2 MPs) and "The Greens" (0 MPs) ran in coalition. ^C People's Monarchist Party (0 MPs) and Democratic Party of the Atlantic (0 MPs) ran in coalition.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share

PSD			44.36%
CDS-PP			13.71%
CM (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT)			11.43%
JPP			10.28%
CDU			5.54%
BE			3.80%
PND			2.07%
PCTP/MRPP			1.67%
MAS			1.34%
Others			1.53%
Blank/Invalid			4.26%

Parliamentary seats

PSD			51.06%
CDS-PP			14.89%
CM (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT)			12.67%
JPP			10.64%
CDU			4.25%
BE			4.25%
PND			2.13%

Maps

Most voted political force by municipality.

Notes

PS, PTP, PAN and MPT will contest the election in an electoral coalition called Change. The polling for the coalition will be shown in the PS column.

References

Alberto João Jardim anuncia abandono da política em 2015, TSF, 24 November 2012. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
Miguel Albuquerque é o novo presidente do PSD/Madeira, Diário de Notícias, 29 December 2014. Retrieved 29 December 2014.
Jardim escreveu, Passos ligou. Albuquerque é o novo líder do PSD-Madeira - sem inseguranças, Expresso, 29 December 2014. Retrieved 29 December 2014.
Eleições na Madeira marcadas para 29 de Março, Radio Renascença, 28 January 2015. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
Madeira. PSD ganha maioria absoluta por pouco , Expresso, 29 March 2015. Retrieved 29 March 2015.
Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2015, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 17 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
"Regionais 2015 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2015/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
"Regionais 2011 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2011/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 12 June 2023.

External links

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[PS-PTP-PAN-MPT-1] PS, PTP, PAN and MPT will contest the election in an electoral coalition called Change. The polling for the coalition will be shown in the PS column.

[2] Alberto João Jardim anuncia abandono da política em 2015, TSF, 24 November 2012. Retrieved 22 June 2014.

[3] Miguel Albuquerque é o novo presidente do PSD/Madeira, Diário de Notícias, 29 December 2014. Retrieved 29 December 2014.

[4] Jardim escreveu, Passos ligou. Albuquerque é o novo líder do PSD-Madeira - sem inseguranças, Expresso, 29 December 2014. Retrieved 29 December 2014.

[5] Eleições na Madeira marcadas para 29 de Março, Radio Renascença, 28 January 2015. Retrieved 28 January 2015.

[6] Madeira. PSD ganha maioria absoluta por pouco , Expresso, 29 March 2015. Retrieved 29 March 2015.

[7] Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007

[8] Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2015, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 17 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.

[9] "Regionais 2015 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2015/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 12 June 2023.

[10] "Regionais 2011 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2011/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 12 June 2023.

[A]

[B]

[C]