2018 Braddon by-election

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.[1]

2018 Braddon by-election
28 July 2018 (2018-07-28)
The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives
Registered73,670
Turnout90.38% Decrease 3.71
  First party Second party Third party
 
IND
Candidate Justine Keay Brett Whiteley Craig Garland
Party Labor Liberal Independent
First preference vote 23,218 24,645 6,633
Percentage 36.98% 39.26% 10.57%
Swing Decrease 3.07 Decrease 2.24 Increase 10.57
TPP 52.31% 47.69%
TPP swing Increase 0.11 Decrease 0.11
MP before election

Justine Keay
Labor

 Elected MP

Justine Keay
Labor

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.[2]

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.[5][6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]

  • Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
  • Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
  • Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates
Burnie City Council polling booth
Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8]
Party Candidate Background
  Greens Jarrod Edwards Indigenous land management supervisor.[9]
  SFF Brett Neal Farmer.[10]
  Independent Donna Gibbons Registered nurse and small business owner.[8]
  Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election.[8]
  Liberal Brett Whiteley One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11]
  Independent Craig Garland Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12]
  People Bruno Strangio Has managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises.[8]
  Labor Justine Keay Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13]

Polling
Braddon by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample MoE Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB GRN OTH ALP LIB
24−26 July 2018 Newspoll The Australian[14] 1002 ±3.1% 40% 43% 5% 12% 51% 49%
19 July 2018 ReachTEL Aus. Forest Products Assoc.[15][16] 810 ±3.4% 36.0% 42.7% 7.0% 14.3% 52% 48%
2 June 2018 ReachTEL Sky News[17] >800 ±3.4% 33% 47% 6% 14% 46% 54%
2016 election 40.0% 41.5% 6.7% 11.7% 52.2% 47.8%

Results
Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Braddon
2018 Braddon by-election[18][19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Brett Whiteley 24,645 39.26 −2.24
Labor Justine Keay 23,218 36.98 −3.07
Independent Craig Garland 6,633 10.57 +10.57
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Brett Neal 2,984 4.75 +4.75
Greens Jarrod Edwards 2,518 4.01 −2.73
Independent Donna Gibbons 1,533 2.44 +2.44
Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag 828 1.32 −0.81
People's Party Bruno Strangio 421 0.67 0.67
Total formal votes 62,780 94.29 −0.48
Informal votes 3,804 5.71 +0.48
Turnout 66,584 90.38 −3.71
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Justine Keay 32,842 52.31 +0.11
Liberal Brett Whiteley 29,938 47.69 −0.11
Labor hold Swing+0.11
Diagram of preference flows at the Braddon by-election

See also

References
  1. Yaxley, Louise (9 May 2018). "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling". ABC News.
  2. Green, Antony. "July 2018 Federal By-elections". ABC News.
  3. "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election". ABC News. 2 May 2018.
  4. Yaxley, Louise (24 May 2018). "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. "2018 Braddon by-election - postal voting". AEC. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  6. "Tasmanian federal redistribution [2016]". AEC. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  7. "2018 Braddon by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018.
  8. Green, Antony. "2018 Braddon by-election guide". ABC News.
  9. Ford, Sean (8 June 2018). "Greens' Braddon candidate Jarrod Edwards wants big Newstart increase". The Advocate. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  10. "Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party announce Braddon by-election candidate". Tasmania Talks. Grant Broadcasters. 18 June 2018. Archived from the original on 18 June 2018. Retrieved 18 June 2018.
  11. "Liberals name Braddon by-election runner". SBS News. 12 May 2018.
  12. "Fishing identity enters race for by-election seat". The Mercury. News Corp Australia. 2 July 2018. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
  13. Norman, Jane (10 May 2018). "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC News.
  14. Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
  15. Labor's Justine Keay best placed in close Braddon race, new poll suggests, 21 July 2018, retrieved 22 July 2018
  16. Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018
  17. ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
  18. 2018 Braddon by-election results: AEC
  19. 2018 Braddon by-election results: ABC
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