2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018.[1]

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.
2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
Turnout59.17%
 
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,633,371 979,210
Percentage 60.3% 36.2%
Warren:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Diehl:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Elections in
Massachusetts
General
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
State Senate
State House
Governor's Council
Ballot measures
Boston
Mayor
City council
Springfield
Mayor
Worcester
Mayor
flag Massachusetts portal

Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, Geoff Diehl.[2]

Democratic primary

Nominated

Results
United States Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts results by county, 2018:
  Warren—≥90%
Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 590,835 98.08%
Write-in 11,558 1.92%
Total votes 602,393 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention
  • Darius Mitchell[9]
  • Heidi Wellman[10]

Declined

Endorsements
Beth Lindstrom
Governors
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
John Kingston
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Geoff
Diehl		 John
Kingston		 Beth
Lindstrom		 Other Undecided
MassINC June 22–25, 2018 399 ± 4.9% 26% 12% 15% 5% 41%

Overall
Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by municipality, 2018
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Geoff Diehl 144,043 55.15%
Republican John Kingston 69,636 26.66%
Republican Beth Lindstrom 46,693 17.88%
Write-in 798 0.31%
Total votes 261,170 100.00%

By county
Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by county, 2018:
  Diehl—70–80%
  Diehl—60–70%
  Diehl—50–60%
  Diehl—40–50%
  Kingston—40–50%

Results by county. Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.

County Diehl
%		 Diehl
votes		 Kingston
%		 Kingston
votes		 Lindstrom
%		 Lindstrom
votes
Barnstable 57.0% 10,761 24.2% 4,573 18.6% 3,513
Berkshire 47.9% 1,221 37.8% 965 13.8% 352
Bristol 61.8% 11,005 23.0% 4,095 15.0% 2,669
Dukes 55.2% 347 25.9% 163 18.9% 119
Essex 53.1% 17,716 28.3% 9,428 18.3% 6,104
Franklin 41.8% 938 42.3% 949 15.3% 343
Hampden 50.5% 7,491 34.0% 5,048 15.0% 2,225
Hampshire 45.7% 1,967 36.7% 1,579 16.9% 725
Middlesex 52.5% 29,084 26.8% 14,852 20.3% 11,218
Nantucket 50.1% 168 29.6% 99 20.3% 68
Norfolk 58.9% 18,749 22.0% 7,009 18.8% 5,992
Plymouth 70.1% 23,242 19.8% 6,549 10.0% 3,316
Suffolk 53.5% 4,792 27.6% 2,471 18.2% 1,628
Worcester 44.8% 16,562 32.1% 11,856 22.8% 8,421
Total 55.2% 144,043 26.7% 69,636 17.9% 46,693

Libertarian primary

Declined

Independents

Declared

Declined

General election

Endorsements
Elizabeth Warren (D)
State officials
Organizations
Geoff Diehl (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Governors
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Shiva Ayyadurai (I)
Individuals
Newspapers

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[118] Safe D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[119] Safe D September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[120] Safe D September 27, 2017
Fox News[121] Likely D July 9, 2018
CNN[122] Safe D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[123] Safe D May 26, 2018

^Highest rating they assert

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Geoff
Diehl (R)		 Shiva
Ayyadurai (I)		 Other Undecided
MassINC October 25–28, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 54% 32% 6% 3% 3%
Suffolk University October 24–28, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 56% 34% 4% – 5%
Western New England University October 10–27, 2018 402 LV ± 5.0% 57% 27% 7% – 8%
485 RV ± 4.0% 54% 27% 6% – 12%
UMass Lowell October 1–7, 2018 485 LV ± 5.6% 56% 31% 8% 3% 2%
791 RV ± 4.4% 56% 28% 9% 4% 1%
MassINC September 17–21, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 56% 30% 5% 1% 6%
Suffolk University Archived September 20, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 13–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 24% 6% – 16%
Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 55% 33% – – 11%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 54% 19% 8% 1% 15%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 55% 20% 9% 1% 13%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 503 ± 4.4% 58% 32% – 3% 7%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 60% 29% – 1% 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Beth Lindstrom
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Beth
Lindstrom (R)		 Shiva
Ayyadurai (I)		 Other Undecided
Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 56% 31% – – 13%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 55% 19% 7% 2% 15%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 53% 19% 9% 1% 14%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 56% 33% – 3% 8%
with John Kingston
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 John
Kingston (R)		 Shiva
Ayyadurai (I)		 Other Undecided
Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 54% 30% – – 15%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 56% 19% 8% 1% 14%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 53% 19% 7% 2% 12%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 57% 33% – 2% 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Karyn
Polito (R)		 Mitt
Romney (R)		 Richard
Tisei (R)		 Other Undecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 ~450 ± 4.1% 40% 36% – – 5% 19%
44% – 31% – 10% 15%
39% – – 32% 3% 26%
with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Shiva
Ayyadurai (R)		 Other Undecided
MassINC November 9–12, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 58% 27% 4% 10%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017 504 ± 4.4% 61% 25% 2% 9%
with Curt Schilling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Curt
Schilling (R)		 Other Undecided
Suffolk University Archived October 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 24–26, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 58% 24% 2% 16%
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 ~450 ± 4.1% 47% 28% 9% 16%
MassINC September 7–10, 2016 506 ± 4.4% 54% 29% 3% 15%
with William Weld
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 William
Weld (L)		 Other Undecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016 ~450 ± 4.1% 40% 37% 8% 16%

Results
United States Senate election in Massachusetts by municipality, 2018:
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018[124]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 1,633,371 60.34% +6.60%
Republican Geoff Diehl 979,210 36.17% -10.02%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai 91,710 3.39% N/A
Write-in 2,799 0.10% N/A
Total votes 2,707,090 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts.[125]

District Diehl Warren Representative
1st 37.34% 58.95% Richard Neal
2nd 39.07% 57.01% Jim McGovern
3rd 38.56% 57.51% Niki Tsongas (115th Congress)
Lori Trahan (116th Congress)
4th 38.45% 58.19% Joe Kennedy III
5th 27.82% 68.91% Katherine Clark
6th 41.21% 54.98% Seth Moulton
7th 13.15% 84.51% Michael Capuano (115th Congress)
Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress)
8th 39.45% 57.65% Stephen Lynch
9th 45.67% 51.13% Bill Keating

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Official campaign websites
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