2021 Upper Hunter state by-election

The 2021 Upper Hunter by-election was held on 22 May 2021 to elect the next Member of Parliament for the district of Upper Hunter in the Legislative Assembly. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent Nationals MP Michael Johnsen on 31 March 2021.

2021 Upper Hunter state by-election
22 May 2021
Electoral district of Upper Hunter in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
Registered56,127
Turnout86.74 Decrease 3.80
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Dave Layzell Jeff Drayton
Party National Labor
Popular vote 14,805 10,055
Percentage 31.20% 21.19%
Swing Decrease 2.79 Decrease 7.46
TPP 55.82% 44.18%
TPP swing Increase 3.26 Decrease 3.26
  Third party Fourth party
 
Candidate Dale McNamara Sue Gilroy
Party One Nation Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
Popular vote 5,845 5,676
Percentage 12.32% 11.96%
Swing Increase 12.32 Decrease 10.08
The Electoral district of Upper Hunter in New South Wales
MP before election

Michael Johnsen
Nationals

 Elected MP

Dave Layzell
Nationals

At around 8:30 pm on the by-election night, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Nationals candidate Dave Layzell. Although Layzell was considered the narrow favourite based on polling, he ultimately won by a margin of 5.8% in the two-candidate-preferred vote, larger than polling suggested.

Results
Preference flows in the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election.[1]
2021 Upper Hunter by-election [2][3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
National Dave Layzell 14,805 31.20 −2.79
Labor Jeff Drayton 10,055 21.19 −7.46
One Nation Dale McNamara 5,845 12.32 +12.32
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Sue Gilroy 5,676 11.96 −10.08
Independent Kirsty O'Connell 4,176 8.80 +8.80
Independent Tracy Norman 1,951 4.11 +4.11
Greens Sue Abbott 1,648 3.47 −1.31
Independent Steven Reynolds 1,027 2.16 +2.16
Liberal Democrats Eva Pears 698 1.47 −2.96
Independent Kate Fraser 644 1.36 +1.36
Animal Justice Michael Dello-Iacovo 397 0.84 −1.14
Sustainable Australia Calum Blair 375 0.79 −1.43
Independent Archie Lea 156 0.33 +0.33
Total formal votes 47,453 97.47 +0.85
Informal votes 1,234 2.53 −0.85
Turnout 48,687 86.74 −3.80
Two-party-preferred result
National Dave Layzell 18,484 55.82 +3.26
Labor Jeff Drayton 14,631 44.18 −3.26
National hold Swing+3.26

Background

On 24 March 2021, Labor MP for Blue Mountains Trish Doyle used parliamentary privilege to accuse an unnamed government MP of raping a sex worker.[4] Later that day Michael Johnsen, the MP for Upper Hunter, issued a statement that confirmed he was the man accused of the rape, but maintained his innocence. Johnsen announced he would resign from his parliamentary secretary position and leave the government party room to sit as an independent.[5] One week later it was revealed that Johnsen had exchanged lewd messages and explicit videos with the alleged victim while in Parliament, including a string of messages where he was in Question time.[6] After Nationals leader John Barilaro called for him to step down, Johnsen resigned from Parliament on 31 March 2021, maintaining his innocence, but citing "the harassment of some sections of the media" as the reason for his resignation.[7]

Two-party-preferred vote in Upper Hunter, 2007–2019
Election20072011[lower-alpha 1]20152019
 Nationals64.70%73.30%52.20%52.56%
 Labor35.30%26.70%47.80%47.44%
GovernmentALPL/NPL/NPL/NP

Controversies

On 15 April 2021, the campaign of Nationals candidate Dave Layzell was found to have registered websites in the names of two other candidates and then released material about those candidates on those domains.[8][9] Website domains were registered in the names of Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Sue Gilroy and Labor candidate Jeff Drayton. These sites were used to disseminate material unfavourable to these candidates. The Nationals website registered in Gilroy's name highlighted the risk that a vote for the Shooters was a vote for Labor given the potential for the party to allocate preferences to Labor. At the 2019 state election, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party urged Upper Hunter voters to put Nationals last, essentially preferencing Labor over Nationals.[10] Deputy Labor leader Yasmin Catley labelled the Nationals campaign a "dirty tricks" campaign, while Gilroy labelled the tactics a "low blow" and "laughable". Layzell denied personal responsibility for registering the websites and the material distributed on those domains.

On 9 May, former Liberal Party Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who owns property in the electorate, endorsed independent candidate Kirsty O'Connell, saying that she would not "sell-out the health of the community in the way the National party has done, in the way they've cuddled up to the big mining companies with no regard to what the people need here." In response, Nationals leader, John Barilaro said that Turnbull is "an absolute disgrace" and should quit the Liberal Party.[11][12]

Candidates
Candidates
(in ballot paper order)[13]
Party Candidate Background Notes
  Independent Kirsty O'Connell Farmer [14]
  Independent Archie Lea
  Liberal Democrats Eva Pears English & HSIE teacher [15]
  One Nation Dale McNamara
  Nationals Dave Layzell Engineer [16]
  Independent Tracy Norman Former Dungog Shire mayor and heir to Harvey Norman [17]
  Independent Steven Reynolds
  Greens Sue Abbott Upper Hunter Shire councillor, former lawyer and nurse [18]
  Labor Jeff Drayton CFMMEU Mining Division Union vice-president [19]
  Sustainable Australia Calum Blair
  Animal Justice Michael Dello-Iacovo
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party Sue Gilroy Businesswoman and former nurse in mining industry [20]
  Independent Kate Fraser [21]

Opinion polling
Upper Hunter by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample Primary vote TPP vote
NAT ALP ON SFF GRN OTH NAT ALP
21 May 2021 - National Party[22] - 34% 20% 16% 12% - -
18 May 2021 - National Party[23] - 34% 22% 12% - - -
16 May 2021 YouGov Daily Telegraph[24] 400 25% 23% 11% 16% 6% 19% 51% 49%
17 April 2021 - Shooters, Fishers and Farmers[25] ~1500 25% 21% - 18% - -
11 April 2021 - National Party[26] - 38% 28% 12% 13% - 9%
9 April 2021 uComms[27] The Australia Institute[28] 686 35.4% 22.0% 13.0% 7.6% 9.3% 3.7%
2019 New South Wales state election 33.99% 28.65% - 22.04% 4.78% 10.54% 52.56% 47.44%

See also

Notes
  1. The two-candidate preferred in the 2011 election was between the Nationals and Independent candidate Tim Duddy who received 68.3% and 31.6% respectively. The numbers in this table reflect a traditional Nationals and Labor contest.

References
  1. "LA – Check Count First Preference District Summary – Upper Hunter". Upper Hunter State By-Election 22-MAY-2021. NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  2. "LA – Check Count First Preference District Summary – Upper Hunter". Upper Hunter State By-Election 22-MAY-2021. NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  3. "LA – Check Count TCP District Summary – Upper Hunter". Upper Hunter State By-Election 22-MAY-2021. New South Wales Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  4. Smith, Alexandra; Rabe, Tom; Cormack, Lucy (24 March 2021). "Labor MP says a NSW government MP raped female sex worker". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 31 March 2021.
  5. Raper, Ashleigh; Knowles, Lorna (24 March 2021). "NSW government MP Michael Johnsen identifies himself as politician at centre of Blue Mountains rape allegation". ABC News. Retrieved 31 March 2021.
  6. Knowles, Lorna; Stewart, John (30 March 2021). "Nationals MP Michael Johnsen exchanged lewd messages with sex worker during NSW Question Time". ABC News. Retrieved 31 March 2021.
  7. "Nationals MP accused of rape resigns from NSW Parliament". www.abc.net.au. 31 March 2021. Retrieved 31 March 2021.
  8. "NSW Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party's Sue Gilroy says Nationals' website campaign tactic 'low blow'". ABC News. 15 April 2021.
  9. "NSW Nationals backflip on 'dirty tactic' during hotly contested Upper Hunter by-election". ABC News. 18 April 2021.
  10. "NSW election 2019: Labor's preference deal with Shooters targets first Upper Hunter victory". The Northern Star Daily. 20 March 2019.
  11. "'Absolute disgrace': War of words erupts over Upper Hunter by-election". ABC News. 9 May 2021. Retrieved 9 May 2021.
  12. "Barilaro calls on Turnbull to quit the Liberals". Sky News. 20 May 2021. Retrieved 24 May 2021.
  13. "Nominated candidates for the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election". New South Wales Electoral Commission. Retrieved 8 May 2021.
  14. "Fifth-generation farmer and community advocate Kirsty O'Connell to run as independent in Upper Hunter by-election". The Singleton Argus. 22 April 2021.
  15. "Upper Hunter Election Candidate 2021". Liberal Democrats. Retrieved 11 April 2021.
  16. Smith, Alexandra (7 April 2021). "Nationals preselect local engineer David Layzell for must-win byelection". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 7 April 2021.
  17. Hannam, Peter (17 April 2021). "'Dose of reality': Retail heiress plans to take on coal in byelection". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
  18. "Greens Party Candidate: Sue Abbott". scone.com.au. 14 April 2021. Retrieved 14 April 2021.
  19. Smith, Alexandra (12 April 2021). "Labor picks union official for byelection as polling shows support for moratorium on new mines". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 12 April 2021.
  20. Raper, Ashleigh (11 April 2021). "Shooters select businesswoman to take on Nationals in crucial NSW by-election". ABC News. Australia. Archived from the original on 11 April 2021. Retrieved 11 April 2021.
  21. "Upper Hunter state by-election 2021: date set to head to polls as political parties begin preselection process". The Singleton Argus. 6 April 2021. Retrieved 11 April 2021.
  22. "Nationals polling shows the state government will win the Upper Hunter by-election". 7NEWS Sydney.
  23. Bashan, Yoni. "Nationals tipped to be collectors in NSW Upper Hunter poll". The Australian.
  24. Caldwell, Anna. "Upper Hunter by-election: Nats in narrow 51-49 lead in crucial seat for Berejiklian". Daily Telegraph.
  25. "The Sauce: Deputy Premier John Barilaro celebrates 10 years in office". Daily Telegraph.
  26. "Mark Latham tipped as possible candidate for Upper Hunter by-election". Sky News Australia. Retrieved 14 April 2021.
  27. "Polling 8 April" (PDF).
  28. "Polling: Upper Hunter – Moratorium on New Coal Mines in the Hunter". The Australia Institute. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
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