2022 California wildfires

After a wet October and December in the beginning of the 2022 water year, California experienced the driest January–February period on record in the state, with similar conditions continuing in March.[7][8][9] This dry stretch follows a period of severe drought in the state that began in 2020, in part due to climate change in California,[10] and which contributed to severe wildfire seasons in both 2020 and 2021.

In its April monthly seasonal outlook, the National Interagency Fire Center forecast above normal significant fire potential for the Bay Area, Mid Coast-Mendocino, and Sacramento Valley/Foothill areas beginning in May, due to the lack of seasonal precipitation, early start to the growing season, and long-term drought.[11] It also noted that "A further expansion of above normal significant fire potential is forecast across most elevations during June and July." The Northern California Geographic Coordination Center (commonly called 'North Ops') forecast stated that "Confidence is moderate to high for an early start to the significant large fire season."[12]

In Northern California, peak fire season begins in the early summer (June-July) and runs until late fall, varying year to year. In Southern California, the peak fire season begins in late spring (May-June) and runs until fall.[13] The precise timing varies according to annual and seasonal precipitation, as well as the occurrence of offshore wind events, such as the Santa Anas, Diablo winds, or sundowner winds.[14] However, fires are possible at any time of year in the state, particularly in drier Southern California.

In anticipation of the 2022 California wildfire season, the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) increased its planned wildfire mitigation plan spending for 2022 to $5.96 billion, from $4.8 billion in 2021 and $4.46 billion in 2020.[15] The mitigation plan includes the 'undergrounding' of at least 175 miles of power lines in high-fire risk areas, the installation of 98 additional wildfire detection/monitoring cameras and 100 additional weather stations, the expansion of safety settings that cut off power when objects (such as trees or branches) contact power lines, and the continued implementation of public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) as a last resort during extreme fire weather conditions.[16][17] These moves came after the company declared bankruptcy in 2019 over its liability for wildfire damage costs from the 2018 Camp Fire and 2017 Tubbs Fire, among others. PG&E pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter in the Camp Fire, shortly before the company exited bankruptcy in June of 2020. In January of 2022, Cal Fire determined that the Dixie Fire, the largest fire of the 2021 California wildfire season and largest non-complex fire in recorded California history, was caused by a tree contacting PG&E electrical distribution lines.

The lead-in to the 2022 Western United States fire season was also been marked by concerns about firefighting staffing. On March 15, 2022, Politico reported that United States Forest Service (USFS) officials had warned California employees that there had been "50 percent fewer applications submitted for GS3 through GS9 firefighting positions" compared to 2021, in part because of low pay, housing issues, and high cost of living.[18] The San Francisco Chronicle similarly reported that between 2019 and 2021, the number of U.S. Forest Service firefighters stationed in California dropped by more than 20%, or over 1,000 firefighters.[19] Testifying for the Senate Appropriations Committee on May 4, USFS Chief Randy Moore noted that in some areas, the USFS had only reached 50% of the staffing goal for wildland firefighters so far. Chief Moore cited competition in the labor market, including with private, county, and state organizations, such as Cal Fire, as a major reason for the hiring challenges.[20] During the peak of fire season, representatives of California's private timber industry called for firefighting reserves to be augmented by the U.S. military and the National Guard, but were resisted by federal and state officials who noted the cost of such efforts and the lack of extreme resource needs during the season so far. The state has been forced to seek military assistance in the past during severe fire seasons.[21]

Anthropogenic climate change is partially responsible for driving increased wildfire severity in California.[22][23] For instance, background warming has led to weather and vegetation conditions more favorable for wildfire activity even at night, which has typically been a period of reduced activity that allows crews to intensify efforts to suppress fires.[24]

The state of California is experiencing drought conditions on a number of timescales. The state saw very little precipitation in the January to March time period, with much of the state experiencing its driest such period. As of March 22, 2022, the National Drought Mitigation Center's U.S. Drought Monitor saw the entire state in moderate to extreme drought conditions.[25] In February, their Drought Severity and Coverage (DSCI) index, which measures cumulative dryness, was at 275, or nearly twice the 20-year average of approximately 146, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.[26] This dry period is part of an ongoing 22-year spell of drought in the North American West that marks the driest such period in at least 1,200 years, according to scientific research based on analysis of soil moisture deficits and tree rings.[27][28]

The drought has impacted wildfire risk and severity in a number of ways. Increased dryness of fuels, driven by increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a measure of the aridity of the atmosphere, is behind an eightfold increase in the area burned by wildfires in the summer in California since 1972, according to scientific research.[29] Drought and overcrowding have also made forests more vulnerable not just to wildfires but bark beetle infestation, which has further weakened and killed forests. Total tree mortality since 2010 exceeds 172 million, providing plentiful fuel for wildfires.[30]

Scientists believe that prior to European colonization, far more area—between 4.4 and 11.8 million acres—was burned on an annual basis in California than in modern history, as a combination of wildfires and indigenous controlled burning.[31] Beginning with the advent of the U.S. Forest Service's '10 AM policy', in which it sought to extinguish all fires by 10 AM the morning after their report, the primary method of wildfire management in California has been suppression.[32] The success of this approach has led to a surfeit of fuel, resulting in larger and more extreme fires.

California, as with other areas of the United States and the world, has experienced a growing amount of human development into the wildland-urban interface, or WUI. This area consists of developed areas either adjacent to, or intermingled with, wildland vegetation and fuels. Such areas are more prone to wildfire ignitions and structure losses, increasing the risk and severity of fire seasons in California.[33] The 2018 Camp Fire and 2017 Tubbs Fire are two examples of recent California wildfires that resulted devastating losses in WUI communities.