2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season

The 2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season is an ongoing weather event in the South Pacific Ocean, to the east of 160°E. The season will officially start on November 1, 2023, and end on April 30, 2024, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, as shown by Cyclone Lola which formed in October. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. The FMS attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. The BoM, FMS and MetService all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds with a period of approximately ten minutes, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).

2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedOctober 19, 2023
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameLola
 • Maximum winds215 km/h (130 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure930 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Total disturbances1
Total depressions1
Tropical cyclones1
Severe tropical cyclones1
Total fatalitiesNone reported
Total damageNone
Related articles

Seasonal forecasts
Source/Record Region Tropical
Cyclone		 Severe
Tropical Cyclone		 Ref
Records
Average (1969-70 - 2022–23):160°E - 120°W73[1]
Record high:160°E - 120°W1997–98: 161982–83: 9[2]
Record low:160°E - 120°W1990–91:  22008–09:  0[2]
Predictions
CWCL July135°E - 120°W8–11—[3]
CWCL August135°E - 120°W8–11—[3]
CWCL September135°E - 120°W8-14—[3]
CWCL October135°E - 120°W9-14—[4]
NIWA October135°E - 120°W9–144–8[5]
FMS Whole160°E - 120°W8-146-9[1]
FMS Western160°E - 180°4-62-4[1]
FMS Eastern180°   - 120°W6-93-4[1]

Ahead of the season officially starting on November 1, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and the University of Newcastle's Australian Centre for Water, Climate and Land (ACWCL), each issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season. These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Nino event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2009-10 and 2015-16.[1][5] The first two of these outlooks were issued in July and August by the ACWCL who suggested that it would be a near-normal season, with eight and eleven tropical cyclones occurring between 135°E and 120°W during the season.[3] The ACWCL tweaked its forecast during September and suggested that up to fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W during the season.[3] They subsequently joined NIWA, the FMS, BoM, MetService and various other Pacific meteorological services and contributed towards the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook.[5] This outlook suggested that between nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W.[5] Four to eight of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify and become either a Category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.[5]

In addition to contributing towards the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[1][6] The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[6] They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 32% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones.[6] The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[6] Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between eight and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.[1] At least five of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become either a Category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.[1] The FMS also predicted that the majority of systems would occur to the east of the International Dateline, with 4-6 tropical cyclones expected to occur between 160°E - 180° while 6-9 were expected to occur between 180° - 120°W.[1] On October 21, the ACWCL issued their final outlook for the season and predicted that it would be an above average season with 9-14 tropical cyclones occurring between 135°E and 120°W.[4]

Seasonal summary

The 2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season will officially start on November 1, 2023, and officially end on April 30, 2024, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, and would count towards the season total. The season began with the formation of Cyclone Lola on October 19, thirteen days before the official start of the season. Three days later it intensified to a Category 4 equivalent tropical cyclone on the SSHS, making it the first such start to a south pacific cyclone season since Cyclone Xavier in 2006.

Systems

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola
Tropical Cyclone Lola
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Lola
Satellite image
 Forecast map for Tropical Cyclone Lola
Forecast map
Current storm information
As of18:00 UTC, October 25
Location17.4°S 166.4°E / -17.4; 166.4 ± 10 nm
83 nautical miles (155 km; 95 mi) WNW of Port Vila, Vanuatu
MovementSW at 7 kn (13 km/h; 8.1 mph)
Currently-active
Category 1 tropical cyclone
10-minute sustained (FMS)
Sustained winds85 km/h (50 mph)
Pressure994 hPa (mbar); 29.35 inHg
Currently-active
Tropical storm
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/JTWC)
Sustained winds95 km/h (60 mph)
Gusts120 km/h (75 mph)
Pressure997 hPa (mbar); 29.44 inHg
See also: List of off-season South Pacific tropical cyclones

On October 19, the Fiji Meteorological Service reported that Tropical Disturbance 01F had developed out of an area of low pressure, about 1295 km (805 mi) to the northeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands.[7][8] At this time the system located in an area favourable for further development, with warm sea-surface temperatures of 30–31 °C (86–88 °F) and low to moderate vertical windshear.[7][9] Later, at 03:00 UTC on October 21, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA), after the system developed a partially exposed low-level circulation center.[10] Over the next couple of days, the system gradually moved southwestward before the FMS classified it as a tropical depression.[11] The convective structure improved considerably, and the JTWC initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 01P at 21:00 UTC.[12] The cyclone drifted southward until an upper-level ridge forced the storm to the south.[13] During the next day, it intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, with the FMS naming it as Lola.[14] Lola intensified into a Category 2 tropical cyclone twelve hours later, as fragmented banding that was wrapping broadly into the slowly consolidating central dense overcast (CDO).[15][16]

Soon afterwards, the JTWC upgraded Lola to a Category 1-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), with maximum one-sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph).[17] By early on October 23, Lola had intensified into a Category 3 tropical cyclone, while the system's depiction showed that tightly wrapped convective banding was circulating around a ragged eye.[18] Lola rapidly intensified into a Category 4 intensity was reached by 12:00 UTC that day, with Lola exhibiting maximum ten-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph).[19] With convective rain bands wrapping into the circulation, the JTWC assessed Lola as having one-minute sustained winds of 215 km/h (130 mph).[20] At the same time, the FMS followed suit and upgraded the system to a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone.[21] As a result, Lola become the earliest Category 5 tropical cyclone on record in the southern hemisphere.[22][23] Lola's eye quickly disappeared, signaling a phase of rapid weakening.[24] Rapidly weakened due to vertical wind shear, Lola made landfall in Sowan, at around 03:00 UTC on October 25.[25] The FMS and the JTWC reported that Lola's winds weakened to 100 km/h (65 mph), for the weakening system tracked over the Malakula.[26][27]

Current storm information

As of 18:00 UTC October 25, Tropical Cyclone Lola is located within 10 nautical miles of 17.4°S 166.4°E / -17.4; 166.4 (Lola), which is approximately about 83 nautical miles (155 km; 95 mi) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 85 km/h (50 mph) while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 95 km/h (60 mph), gusting up to 120 km/h (75 mph). The minimum barometric pressure is 994 hPa (29.35 inHg) and the system moving southwest at 7 kn (13 km/h; 8.1 mph).

For the latest official information see:

Storm names
See also: Lists of tropical cyclone names

Within the Southern Pacific, a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. With tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W named by the FMS. However should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named in conjunction with the FMS by MetService. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name. The names that will be used for the 2023–24 season are listed below:[28]

  • Lola (active)
  • Mal (unused)
  • Nat (unused)
  • Osai (unused)
  • Pita (unused)
  • Rae (unused)
  • Seru (unused)
  • Tam (unused)
  • Urmil (unused)
  • Vaianu (unused)
  • Wati (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yani (unused)
  • Zita (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2023–24 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All data is taken from RSMC Nadi and/or TCWC Wellington, and all of the damage figures are in 2023 or 2024 USD.

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(USD)		 Deaths Refs
Category Wind speed Pressure
Lola October 19 – present Category 5 severe tropical cyclone 215 km/h (130 mph) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu None None
Season aggregates
1 systemOctober 19, 2023 –
Season Ongoing		215 km/h (130 mph)930 hPa (30 inHg)NoneNone

See also

References
  1. "Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi – TCC) Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook 2023–24 Detailed Outlook" (PDF). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 12, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 12, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  2. Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Season 2010/11 for the Fiji and the Southwest Pacific (PDF) (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 26, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 27, 2012. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
  3. Magee, Andrew (September 23, 2023). September 2023 Long-Range Outlook for the 2023/24 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season (PDF) (Report). Australian Centre for Water, Climate and Land. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 12, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  4. Magee, Andrew (October 22, 2023). October 2023 Long-Range Outlook for the 2023/24 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season (PDF) (Report). Australian Centre for Water, Climate and Land. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  5. 2023-24 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook (PDF) (Report). New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 12, 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 12, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  6. South Pacific tropical cyclone season forecast for 2023 to 2024 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. October 12, 2023. Archived from the original on October 12, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  7. Tropical Disturbance Summary October 19, 2023 0838 UTC (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 19, 2023. Archived from the original on October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
  8. "Off season tropical disturbance monitored in the region" (PDF) (Press release). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 20, 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  9. Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans October 20, 2023 00:30z (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. October 21, 2023. Archived from the original on October 23, 2023. Retrieved October 21, 2023.
  10. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 90P) (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 21 October 2023. Archived from the original on October 21, 2023. Retrieved 21 October 2023.
  11. Tropical Depression 01F Advisory Number A5 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 21, 2023. Archived from the original on October 21, 2023. Retrieved October 21, 2023.
  12. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (One) Warning No. 1 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 21 October 2023. Archived from the original on 21 October 2023. Retrieved 21 October 2023.
  13. Tropical Depression 01F Advisory Number A6 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 22, 2023. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  14. Tropical Cyclone Lola Storm Warning Number 06 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 22, 2023. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  15. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) Warning No. 4 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 22 October 2023. Archived from the original on 22 October 2023. Retrieved 22 October 2023.
  16. Tropical Cyclone Lola Hurricane Warning Number 07 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 22, 2023. Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  17. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) Warning No. 5 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 22 October 2023. Archived from the original on 22 October 2023. Retrieved 22 October 2023.
  18. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola Hurricane Warning Number 09 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 23, 2023. Archived from the original on October 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  19. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola Hurricane Warning Number 11 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 23, 2023. Archived from the original on October 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  20. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) Warning No. 8 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 23 October 2023. Archived from the original on 23 October 2023. Retrieved 23 October 2023.
  21. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola Hurricane Warning Number 12 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 23, 2023. Archived from the original on October 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  22. "Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Lola sets southern hemisphere record". www.9news.com.au. 2023-10-24. Archived from the original on 2023-10-24. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  23. Data, New Zealand's Weather; Authority, Alerts. "VANUATU: TC-LOLA remains a major Category 5 storm as it moves into Vanuatu, may weaken a little (Maps + Animations)". WeatherWatch.co.nz. Archived from the original on 2023-10-24. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  24. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) Warning No. 11 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 24 October 2023. Archived from the original on 24 October 2023. Retrieved 24 October 2023.
  25. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) Warning No. 14 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 25 October 2023. Archived from the original on 25 October 2023. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  26. Tropical Cyclone Lola Storm Warning Number 15 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 25, 2023. Archived from the original on October 25, 2023. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  27. Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) Warning No. 16 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 25 October 2023. Archived from the original on 25 October 2023. Retrieved 25 October 2023.
  28. RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2023). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2023 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
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