2023 Hessian state election

The 2023 Hessian state election was held on 8 October 2023 to elect the 21st Landtag of Hesse.[1] The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and The Greens, led by Minister-President Boris Rhein of the CDU. The 2023 Bavarian state election was held the same day.

2023 Hessian state election
8 October 2023
All 133 seats in the Landtag including overhang and levelling seats
67 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,812,560 (64.9%)
Decrease 2.4%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Boris Rhein (Martin Rulsch) 2013-02-26 2.jpg
MJK 43662 Robert Lambrou (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg
2023-02-12 BMW IBU World Championships Biathlon Oberhof 2023 – Men 12.5 km Pursuit by Sandro Halank–004.jpg
Leader Boris Rhein Robert Lambrou Nancy Faeser
Party CDU AfD SPD
Last election 40 seats, 27.0% 19 seats, 13.1% 29 seats, 19.8%
Seats won 52 28 23
Seat change Increase 12 Increase 9 Decrease 6
Popular vote 972,595 518,674 424,487
Percentage 34.6% 18.4% 15.1%
Swing Increase 7.6% Increase 5.3% Decrease 4.7%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
2016-02-04 Tarek Al-Wazir - MdL Hessen - 3647-2.jpg
MJK 43467 Stefan Naas (Hessischer Landtag 2019).jpg
Die Linke
Leader Tarek Al-Wazir Stefan Naas Elisabeth Kula
Jan Schalauske
Party Greens FDP Left
Last election 29 seats, 19.8% 11 seats, 7.5% 9 seats, 6.3%
Seats won 22 8 0
Seat change Decrease 7 Decrease 3 Decrease 9
Popular vote 415,888 141,608 86,821
Percentage 14.8% 5.0% 3.1%
Swing Decrease 5.0% Decrease 2.5% Decrease 3.2%
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats
Government before election

Rhein cabinet
CDU–Green

 Government after election

TBD

The result was a clear victory for the CDU, which took almost 35% of the vote on a swing of 7.6 percentage points. At 18%, the Alternative for Germany lifted its vote by over five points and became the second-largest party in a Western state for the first time. The Greens conversely lost five points, falling to fourth place on 15%, just behind the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) who suffered similar losses. According to preliminary results, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) passed the 5% electoral threshold by fractions of a percentage point; meanwhile, The Left fell to 3% and lost all their seats.[2]

Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority, with a strengthened position for the leading CDU. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.[3][4]

Election organization

Election date

Article 79 of the Constitution of Hesse stipulates that the state parliament is elected for five years. The new election must take place before the end of the electoral period. According to Section 1 of the Hessian state election law, the election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday. The day of the election is determined by the state government by ordinance.

Since the 20th state parliament was constituted on January 18, 2019, Sunday, January 14, 2024 is the latest possible date for the election to the 21st Hessian state parliament.

On January 17, 2023, the Rhein cabinet decided to set October 8, 2023 as the election day. It follows the tradition that voting takes place in Hesse in the three months before the end of the electoral period. The Bavarian state election took place the same day.

Electoral system

Parties and voter groups that have not been represented in the state parliament without interruption since the last state election need 1,000 signatures for their state list and 50 for their district election proposals .

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate on the state list and one for a candidate in their constituency. The state list of a party is elected with the state vote that is decisive for the allocation of seats in the state parliament.

Parliament seats are calculated using the Hare-Niemeyer method.

Parties

The following parties were represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse:

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2018 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Boris Rhein 27.0%
40 / 137
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Tarek Al-Wazir 19.8%
29 / 137
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Nancy Faeser 19.8%
29 / 137
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 German nationalism
Right-wing populism		 Robert Lambrou 13.1%
19 / 137
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Stefan Naas 7.5%
11 / 137
Linke The Left
Die Linke		 Democratic socialism Elisabeth Kula
Jan Schalauske		 6.3%
9 / 137

Opinion polling

Graphical summary
Local regression of polls conducted

Party polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU Grüne SPD AfD FDP Linke FW Others Lead
2023 state election 8 Oct 2023 – 34.6 14.8 15.1 18.4 5.0 3.1 3.5 5.5 16.1
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Oct 2023 949 34.5 16.5 15.5 15.5 4.9 2.5 4.5 6.1 18.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–5 Oct 2023 1,000 32 17 17 16 5 3 4 6 15
Wahlkreisprognose 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1,002 33 16.5 16 16 5.5 3 4.5 5.5 16.5
INSA 25 Sep – 2 Oct 2023 1,000 31 16 16 16 5 4 5 7 15
Civey 24 Sep – 1 Oct 2023 2,900 31 18 16 15 6 4 – 10 13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–28 Sep 2023 1,041 32 17 17 16 5 3 4 6 15
Infratest dimap 25–27 Sep 2023 1,515 31 17 16 15 6 4 4 7 14
Wahlkreisprognose 22–26 Sep 2023 1,000 30.5 18 16 17.5 5 2.5 4 6.5 12.5
Civey 7–14 Sep 2023 3,001 31 19 19 14 6 3 – 8 12
Wahlkreisprognose 9–13 Sep 2023 1,200 30 17 20 17.5 5 2 4 4.5 10
INSA 4–11 Sep 2023 1,000 29 19 20 15 6 3 4 4 9
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 2023 1,170 31 17 18 17 5 3 3 6 13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–7 Sep 2023 1,107 30 19 19 16 6 3 – 7 11
Civey 24–31 Aug 2023 3,002 29 20 18 16 6 3 – 8 9
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Aug 2023 1,000 29 16 20 18 5.5 2 4.5 5 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–23 Aug 2023 1,005 31 18 20 15 6 3 – 7 11
Civey 9–16 Aug 2023 2,810 29 19 20 15 6 3 – 8 9
Wahlkreisprognose 18–23 Jul 2023 1,015 25.5 16 20 20 5 2 5.5 6 5.5
Wahlkreisprognose 23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 1,400 26 18 20 19 5 2.5 3.5 6 6
INSA 5–12 Jun 2023 1,000 29 18 22 13 7 4 3 4 7
Wahlkreisprognose 17–22 May 2023 1,002 29 16 23.5 13 7 2 3 6.5 5.5
INSA 17–24 Apr 2023 1,000 30 20 21 12 7 4 3 3 9
Wahlkreisprognose 5–14 Apr 2023 1,398 28 18 24 12.5 7 2 3 5.5 4
Infratest dimap 7–11 Mar 2023 1,177 32 22 20 11 5 3 – 7 10
Wahlkreisprognose 3–7 Mar 2023 1,003 29 21 24 11 6 1.5 3 4.5 5
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Feb 2023 1,521 26 20 25 12 7.5 1.5 2.5 5.5 1
Wahlkreisprognose 23–27 Dec 2022 1,150 28 19 25 12 7 1.5 2.5 5 3
Wahlkreisprognose 25–27 Nov 2022 1,100 30 19.5 22 12 6.5 2 3 5 8
Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Oct 2022 1,082 28.5 21 18 13.5 7 3 3 6 7.5
Infratest dimap 12–15 Oct 2022 1,161 27 22 22 12 6 3 – 8 5
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Sep 2022 1,000 30.5 21 15 14.5 7 4 3 5 9.5
Wahlkreisprognose 25–30 Aug 2022 1,010 29.5 26 15.5 9 7 3.5 3.5 6 3.5
Wahlkreisprognose 7–12 Jul 2022 1,043 29.5 26.5 20 7 6.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 3
Wahlkreisprognose 12–18 Jun 2022 1,200 32 27 18 7 6 3 2 5 5
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Apr–4 May 2022 1,023 28 24.5 21 7 8 3.5 2 6 3.5
INSA 4–11 Apr 2022 1,000 24 19 24 10 8 5 3 7 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 3–10 Mar 2022 1,400 25 24 24 7 8 4 2.5 5.5 1
Infratest dimap 28 Feb–2 Mar 2022 1,169 27 20 24 7 9 5 – 8 3
Wahlkreisprognose 21–28 Jan 2022 1,102 25 19 26 9 8 6 3 4 1
Wahlkreisprognose 26 Nov–2 Dec 2021 1,000 21.5 18.5 24.5 9 13 5 3 5.5 3
INSA 11–19 Oct 2021 1,253 20 20 26 11 11 5 3 4 6
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 22.8 15.8 27.6 8.8 12.8 4.3 1.7 6.0 4.8
Wahlkreisprognose 5–11 May 2021 – 21.5 27 16 9.5 12 5 5 – 5.5
Infratest dimap 18–23 Feb 2021 1,001 32 21 17 10 7 6 – 7 11
Wahlkreisprognose 7–14 Dec 2020 – 32 21.5 18.5 12 6 6 – 4 10.5
Infratest dimap 1–7 Dec 2020 1,004 34 22 19 8 7 5 – 5 12
INSA 22–29 Oct 2020 1,018 30 19 18 11 6 9 – 7 11
Wahlkreisprognose 5–12 Sep 2020 – 31.5 22 16.5 13 5 8 – – 9.5
Wahlkreisprognose 10–16 July 2020 – 30 21.5 20.5 12 5 7 – – 8.5
Wahlkreisprognose 20–25 May 2020 – 36 20 20.5 9 5 5 – – 15.5
Infratest dimap 12–13 May 2020 1,005 36 20 18 10 7 4 – 5 16
Wahlkreisprognose 6–14 Apr 2020 – 32 22 21 8 6.5 5 – – 10
Infratest dimap 7–13 Feb 2020 1,000 26 25 16 12 7 8 – 6 1
INSA 4–16 Dec 2019 2,000 26 23 16 13 8 9 3 2 3
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 – 25.8 23.4 18.4 9.9 6.4 4.4 1.7 10.0 2.4
Infratest dimap 16–24 Apr 2019 1,001 27 21 19 13 9 6 – 5 6
2018 state election 28 Oct 2018 – 27.0 19.8 19.8 13.1 7.5 6.3 3.0 3.6 7.2

Minister-president polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 None/
Unsure		 Lead
Rhein
CDU		 Al-Wazir
Grüne		 Faeser
SPD		 Lambrou
AfD
Infratest dimap 8 Oct 2023 – 38 23 15 – 24 15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 50 30 – – 20 19
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 61 – 21 – 18 40
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Oct 2023 949 38 17 14 14 17 21
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–5 Oct 2023 1,000 44 33 – – 23 11
55 – 24 – 21 31
Wahlkreisprognose 30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1,002 35 17 11 12 25 18
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25–28 Sep 2023 1,041 44 31 – – 25 13
55 – 21 – 24 34
Infratest dimap 25–27 Sep 2023 1,515 35 19 14 – 32 16
Wahlkreisprognose 22–26 Sep 2023 1,000 33 18 13 11 25 15
Wahlkreisprognose 9–13 Sep 2023 1,200 31 16 16 10 27 15
40 – 24 – 36 16
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 2023 1,170 33 21 17 – 29 12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–7 Sep 2023 1,107 42 31 – – 27 11
50 – 26 – 24 24
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Aug 2023 1,000 30 15 21 12 22 9
32 – 27 – 41 5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–23 Aug 2023 1,005 44 31 – – 25 13
50 – 28 – 22 22
Wahlkreisprognose 18–23 Jul 2023 1,015 28 15 20 7 30 8
31 – 28 – 41 3
Wahlkreisprognose 23 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 1,400 30 17 20 – 33 10
Wahlkreisprognose 17–22 May 2023 1,002 37 19 23 – 21 14
Wahlkreisprognose 5–14 Apr 2023 1,398 34 23 24 – 19 10
Infratest dimap 7–11 Mar 2023 1,177 32 23 17 – 28 9
Wahlkreisprognose 3–7 Mar 2023 1,003 34 23 25 – 18 9
Wahlkreisprognose 3–6 Feb 2023 1,521 32 20 27 – 21 5
Wahlkreisprognose 23–27 Dec 2022 1,150 32 20 25 – 23 7
Wahlkreisprognose 25–27 Nov 2022 1,100 36 15 26 – 23 10
Wahlkreisprognose 24–28 Oct 2022 1,082 37 19 24 – 20 13
Infratest dimap 12–15 Oct 2022 1,161 30 21 17 – 32 9
Wahlkreisprognose 25–29 Sep 2022 1,400 39 19 19 – 23 20
Wahlkreisprognose 25–30 Aug 2022 1,010 36 24 20 – 20 12
Wahlkreisprognose 7–12 Jul 2022 1,043 35 25 23 – 17 10
Wahlkreisprognose 10–17 Jun 2022 1,123 41 30 17 – 12 11
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Apr – 4 May 2022 1,023 30 28 23 – 19 2
Wahlkreisprognose 3–10 Mar 2022 1,400 26 28 22 – 24 2
Infratest dimap 28 Feb – 2 Mar 2022 1,169 26 23 20 – 31 3

Preliminary results
Results of the election by municipality
Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the Landtag of Hesse
Party Constituency Party list Total
seats		 +/-
Votes  % Seats Votes  % +/- Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 997,602 35.6 52 972,595 34.6 Increase 7.6 0 52 Increase 12
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 490,828 17.5 0 518,674 18.4 Increase 5.3 28 28 Increase 9
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 512,229 18.3 0 424,487 15.1 Decrease 4.7 23 23 Decrease 6
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 397,532 14.2 3 415,888 14.8 Decrease 5.0 19 22 Decrease 7
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 137,268 4.9 0 141,608 5.0 Decrease 2.5 8 8 Decrease 3
Free Voters (FW) 130,987 4.7 0 98,256 3.5 Increase 0.5 0 0 Steady 0
The Left (DIE LINKE) 90,529 3.2 0 86,821 3.1 Decrease 3.2 0 0 Decrease 9
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 5,181 0.2 0 43,339 1.5 Increase 0.5 0 0 Steady 0
Volt Germany (Volt) 13,707 0.5 0 27,576 1.0 New 0 0 New
Die PARTEI 18,598 0.7 0 23,651 0.8 Increase 0.2 0 0 Steady 0
Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis) 4,287 0.2 0 13,668 0.5 New 0 0 New
V-Partei³ 155 0.0 0 9,462 0.3 Increase 0.2 0 0 Steady 0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 1,346 0.0 0 8,633 0.3 Decrease 0.1 0 0 Steady 0
Climate List Germany (Klimaliste) 952 0.0 0 6,203 0.2 New 0 0 New
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) – 5,900 0.2 Decrease 0.1 0 0 Steady 0
Action Citizens for Justice (ABG) 321 0.0 0 4,440 0.2 New 0 0 New
Party of Humanists (PdH) 878 0.0 0 4,265 0.2 Increase 0.1 0 0 Steady 0
German Communist Party (DKP) 776 0.0 0 2,235 0.1 New 0 0 New
Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany (APPD) 91 0.0 0 1,962 0.1 New 0 0 New
Party for Biomedical Rejuvenation Research (Verjüngungsforschung) – 1,521 0.1 Steady 0.0 0 0 Steady 0
The New Centre (DIE NEUE MITTE) – 1,376 0.0 New 0 0 New
Non-party Resident Representatives (NEV) 880 0.0 0 – 0 Steady 0
Practitioner Party (PP) 420 0.0 0 – 0 New
Solidarity, Justice, Change (SGV) 161 0.0 0 – 0 New
Solibew 124 0.0 0 – 0 New
MERA25 99 0.0 0 – 0 New
Total 2,805,895 100.00 55 2,812,560 100.00 78 133 Decrease 4
Invalid 52,198 1.8 45,533 1.6
Turnout 2,858,093 66.0 2,858,093 66.0 Decrease 1.3
Registered voters 4,331,942 4,331,942

State government formation

References
  1. "Landtagswahl findet am 8. Oktober 2023 statt". hessen.de (in German). 17 January 2023. Retrieved 2023-01-31.
  2. "Germany: Scholz coalition battered in Bavaria, Hesse polls". Deutsche Welle. 9 October 2023.
  3. "German conservative opposition wins 2 state elections, with far-right making gains". Associated Press. 8 October 2023.
  4. "German voters move further to the right". Deutsche Welle. 9 October 2023.
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