Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
 
Michelle O'Neill (cropped from Martin McGuinness, Michelle O'Neill, Mary Lou McDonald and Gerry Adams).jpg
Jeffrey Donaldson election infobox.jpg
Naomi Long MLA.jpg
Leader Michelle O'Neill[n 1] Jeffrey Donaldson[n 2] Naomi Long
Party Sinn Féin DUP Alliance
Last election 27 seats, 29.0% 25 seats, 21.3% 17 seats, 13.5%
 
Doug Beattie.png
Colum Eastwood MLA.JPG
JimAllister (cropped).jpg
Leader Doug Beattie Colum Eastwood[n 3] Jim Allister
Party Ulster Unionist SDLP TUV
Last election 9 seats, 11.2% 8 seats, 9.1% 1 seat, 7.6%
 
Eamonn McCann (cropped).jpg
Leader Eamonn McCann[n 4]
Party People Before Profit
Last election 1 seat, 1.1%
Incumbent First Minister and
deputy First Minister

Vacant


A Northern Ireland Assembly election has to be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly if the parties fail to form an Executive, which they have yet to do. After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline.[2] No Executive was formed by this deadline,[3] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament.[4][5] A deadline of 18 January 2024 is now proposed.[6][7]

The next election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Jeffrey Donaldson, Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Doug Beattie, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Colum Eastwood, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, in addition to People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership.

Background

Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[8] which would be 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

After the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary can call a new election early.[9]

On 28 September 2022, Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, stated that he had a legal obligation to call an early election on 28 October if no government was formed by that date,[2] probably[3] to be held no later than January 2023.[10][11] Sinn Féin leader Michelle O'Neill voiced her opposition to such an election: "The people spoke, and the people asked for a functioning executive, they asked for us to make politics work."[12] Both the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Irish Tánaiste (Deputy Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar had urged the DUP to agree to the formation of a Government.[13]

The parties met on 27 October and failed to elect a Speaker, the fourth time they had met and failed to do so, and no government was formed by the deadline.[14] On 28 October, Heaton-Harris expressed disappointment that no Executive had been formed and acknowledged his legal duty to call an election,[15] but delayed immediately calling one.[16] The chief electoral officer said the election date would likely be 15 December.[17] The last date that an election could be held under the legislation existing then was 19 January 2023.[4]

On 29 October, Heaton-Harris continued to delay calling an election. Claire Hanna, a Member of Parliament for the SDLP, reacted to the news, saying an election was now "less likely". Heaton-Harris held another round of talks with the political parties on 1 November, amid speculation that the UK government could introduce legislation to delay the need for a new election.[18][4] However, Northern Ireland Office Minister Steve Baker said on 2 November that Heaton-Harris "will soon confirm the date of the next Northern Ireland Assembly election as required by law."[19]

On 4 November, Heaton-Harris said an election would not be held in December.[20] On 9 November, he said that he would be introducing legislation to extend the deadline to form a new Assembly Executive to 8 December 2022, with the option for an additional 6-week extension.[21] The requisite legislation was passed by the Westminster Parliament on 6 December 2022.[22]

The December 2022 deadline passed without any resolution. The deadline was extended to 19 January 2023. Heaton-Harris invited the parties to new talks on 11 January 2023 to discuss the situation,[23] but Sinn Féin pulled out in protest at the exclusion of its President, Mary Lou McDonald, after which the SDLP refused to take part as well.[24][25]

Under the then legislation, the latest possible date for the next election, if an Executive is not formed, was 13 April 2023.[21][26] The deadline to form an Executive passed on 19 January 2023, but Heaton-Harris played down the prospect of him calling a snap election.[27]

Under existing legislation, Heaton-Harris will have to call an election by the end of the first week of March 2023. However, he has proposed a further extension, with a new deadline to form an Executive of 18 January 2024 proposed.[6][7] This was achieved through the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022–23,[28] which completed its passage through the Westminster Parliament in late February 2023.[29][28]

On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland protocol.[30] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive.[31]

Opinion polling
Date(s)
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 SF N DUP U APNI O UUP U SDLP N TUV U Green O Aontú N PBP O Other Lead
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 31% 26% 15% 10% 6% 5% 2% 2% 1% 2% 5%
18 May 2023 Local elections
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,557 29% 25% 13% 11% 7% 7% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4%
3–14 Mar 2023 Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News N/A 30.6% 23.9% 15.4% 11.3% 6.7% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 2.2%
1.7%
NI Conservatives on 1.3%
 6.7%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,499 31% 25% 15% 10% 7% 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 32% 27% 15% 9% 7% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 30% 24% 16% 11% 7% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 6%
28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022 Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News 1,000 30.9% 20.1% 15.3% 9.6% 10.0% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% 10.8%
5 May 2022 2022 Assembly election – 29.0% 21.3% 13.5% 11.2% 9.1% 7.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 3.8% 7.7%

Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 43% 37% 20% +6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 41% 37% 22% +4%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 41% 40% 19% +1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 46% 37% 17% +9%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 40% 42% 18% –2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) since 30 June 2021.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 24% 66% 10% –42%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 65% 8% –38%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 25% 63% 12% –38%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 29% 65% 6% –36%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 27% 64% 9% –37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 38% 39% 23% –1%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 40% 38% 22% +2%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 37% 38% 25% –1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 45% 37% 18% +8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 46% 37% 17% +9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 34% 38% 28% –4%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 38% 33% 29% +5%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 28% 42% 30% –14%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 37% 32% 31% +5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 34% 32% 0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 26% 43% 31% –17%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 32% 40% 28% –8%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 33% 38% 29% –5%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 31% 39% 30% –8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 34% 39% 27% –5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 23% 63% 14% –40%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 27% 61% 12% –34%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 27% 57% 16% –30%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 27% 59% 14% –32%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 31% 54% 15% –23%

Rishi Sunak

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Rishi Sunak, leader of the Conservative Party since 24 October 2022 and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since 25 October 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 7% 73% 20% –66%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 19% 59% 22% –40%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 11% 58% 31% –47%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 15% 43% 42% –28%

Chris Heaton-Harris

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Chris Heaton-Harris, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland since 6 September 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,950 4% 82% 14% –78%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,957 11% 62% 27% –51%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 6% 70% 24% –64%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,351 6% 72% 22% –66%

Mary Lou McDonald

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mary Lou McDonald, President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Leader of the Opposition in the Dáil Éireann since 27 June 2020.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 - 46% - -

Leo Varadkar

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Leo Varadkar, Taoiseach since 17 December 2022 and from 14 June 2017 to 27 June 2020. He served as Tánaiste from 27 June 2020 to 17 December 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 - 46% - -

Micheál Martin

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Micheál Martin, Tánaiste since 17 December 2022 and Taoiseach from 27 June 2020 to 17 December 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,449 - 36% - -

Former leaders

Boris Johnson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Boris Johnson, former leader of the Conservative party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 24 July 2019 to 6 September 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 12% 76% 12% –64%

Shailesh Vara

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Shailesh Vara, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from 7 July 2022 to 6 September 2022.

Date(s) conducted Pollster Client Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't Know Net approval
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,384 4% 51% 45% –47%

Footnotes
  1. Sinn Féin's president is Mary Lou McDonald who is a TD for Dublin Central in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas (legislature of the Republic of Ireland). O'Neill is the party's vice president.
  2. Donaldson sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Lagan Valley rather than in the Assembly
  3. Eastwood sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Foyle rather than in the Assembly
  4. People Before Profit has a collective leadership, but for the purposes of registration to The Electoral Commission, McCann is named as the party's leader in Northern Ireland.[1]

References
  1. "Registration Summary". The Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 4 June 2016. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  2. Pogatchnik, Shawn (28 September 2022). "UK warns of snap Northern Ireland election if DUP won't share power". Politico. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
  3. "NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes". BBC News. 27 October 2022. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
  4. McClafferty, Enda; McCormack, Jayne (2 November 2022). "NI election date to be confirmed soon - Steve Baker". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  5. "Stormont election: Further delay suggested as NI Protocol talks continue". BBC News. 19 January 2023. Retrieved 22 January 2023.
  6. O'Carroll, Lisa (9 February 2023). "Northern Ireland assembly election to be delayed again". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  7. Pogatchnik, Shawn (9 February 2023). "UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election 'deadline' to 2024". POLITICO. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  8. "Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014". Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  9. Sproule, Luke (12 May 2022). "NI election results 2022: What does Sinn Féin's vote success mean?". BBC News. Retrieved 14 May 2022.
  10. "No Christmas election for Northern Ireland Assembly". BBC News. 4 November 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  11. Campbell, Brett (18 October 2022). "Stormont election on December 15 if deadline missed 'even by a minute'". Belfast Telegraph. Retrieved 19 October 2022.
  12. McCambridge, Jonathan (10 October 2022). "O'Neill cautions against winter election and calls for Stormont return". Evening Standard. Retrieved 10 October 2022.
  13. "NI election looms as Stormont deadline passes". BBC News. 27 October 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  14. Simpson, Mark; Andrews, Chris (27 October 2022). "DUP blocks NI government as election call looms". BBC News. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  15. "NI Secretary voices 'disappointment' but still no election call". ITV News. 28 October 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  16. "NI Assembly election to be called but no date set". BBC News. 28 October 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  17. Andrews, Chris (28 October 2022). "Q&A: Is Northern Ireland going back to the polls?". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  18. "NI election: Sinn Féin says talks to be held on Tuesday". BBC News. 29 October 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  19. "NI election date to be confirmed soon - Steve Baker". BBC News. 2 November 2022. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  20. "Stormont: No NI Assembly election to be held in December". BBC News. 4 November 2022. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
  21. "Secretary of State for Northern Ireland - Statement on Executive Formation". UK Government. 9 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  22. McCormack, Jayne (5 December 2022). "Stormont: MLA pay cut bill passed in House of Lords" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  23. "Stormont crisis: NI secretary invites parties to hold deadlock talks". 4 January 2023 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  24. McCambridge, Jonathan (11 January 2023). "Sinn Fein pulls out of protocol meeting after party leader 'excluded'". The Independent. Retrieved 12 January 2023.
  25. McClements, Freya; McQuinn, Cormac (11 January 2023). "Talks to break Stormont deadlock go ahead without any nationalists after 'exclusion' of Sinn Féin leader". The Irish Times. Retrieved 12 January 2023.
  26. McCormack, Jayne; Fox, Matt (9 November 2022). "Stormont stalemate: Heaton-Harris pushes back NI election deadline". BBC News. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
  27. Hughes, Brendan (18 January 2023). "Latest Stormont deadline looms but little sign of snap election". BelfastLive.
  28. "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) (changed from Northern Ireland (Executive Formation)) Bill - Parliamentary Bills - UK Parliament".
  29. "Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill 2022-23 - House of Commons Library".
  30. "The Windsor Framework". Institute for Government.
  31. Press Association (27 February 2023). "Windsor Framework: Sinn Fein and SDLP call for restoration of Assembly following NI Protocol deal". Belfast News Letter.
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