2023 Spanish government formation

Congress of Deputies resulting from the 23 July 2023 general election

Ahead of the election, opinion polls predicted a majority for the People's Party (PP) and Vox. When this failed to materialize,[2][3] both the PP and the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) claimed the right to form a government.[4][5][6] The possible outcomes discussed following the election were:[7]

• An alliance of PP, Vox and the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), comprising 171 seats.
• A PSOE–Sumar coalition with support from the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), EH Bildu, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), comprising 171 seats.
• Parliamentary deadlock lasting for two months from a first failed investiture ballot, leading to a new general election to be held towards the end of 2023 or in early 2024.

The Canarian Coalition (CCa) was seen as a possible part of either bloc, depending on negotiations. Other possible solutions, such as a grand coalition or the abstention of PP or PSOE in the other's investiture, were seen as unfeasible. As a result, Together for Catalonia (Junts), led by the fugitive former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, was widely regarded as the kingmaker, with both blocs needing their seven seats to form a government, likely in exchange for further concessions on Catalan independence.[8][9][10] Míriam Nogueras, the Congress spokeswoman for Junts, said that her party "was not born to stabilise the Spanish State, but so that Catalonia may be an independent country", adding that her party's vote for Sánchez's investiture would not be given for free.[11]

Feijóo acknowledged his difficulty in forming a parliamentary majority, but expressed his intention to seek investiture nonetheless if tasked by the King to form a government.[12][13][14] Having previously called for an end to sanchismo (a derogatory reference to Sánchez's government work), the PP then asked PSOE to allow Feijóo's investiture, as they had done for Mariano Rajoy during the previous government formation process in 2016.[15][16] PSOE promptly rejected this request as impossible after "years of insults", and described it as an attempt by Feijóo to "cover up his failure" by pretending he could command sufficient support for his investiture.[17] Feijóo warned of the breakup of Spain if Sánchez was confirmed as prime minister with the support of pro-independence parties.[18]

On 24 July, CCa spokeswoman Ana Oramas expressed her party's refusal to support a "ghost government" of Feijóo, stating that "there is no possibility that Feijóo will be prime minister".[19] This rejection was echoed hours later by Andoni Ortuzar, the president of the PNV, which refused even to enter talks with the PP.[20] Vox stated on 26 July that they could enable Feijóo's investiture "if he could convince a couple of PSOE's deputies" to vote for him, while warning that they would not give the "patriotic vote" of their 33 deputies for free.[21][22] On 25 July, Arnaldo Otegi, the leader of EH Bildu, announced that his party's six deputies would vote for Sánchez and the PSOE during the investiture vote.[23] ERC said it was favourable to Sánchez's investiture, pending a vote among its membership,[24] while the BNG announced it could vote for Sánchez to avoid a right-wing government, but without granting him a "blank cheque".[25]

The PP's result in the election—well below expectations of reaching above 150 or 160 seats—triggered criticism of Feijóo's performance as party leader.[26][27][28] During election night, party supporters interrupted Feijóo's hastily reworked victory speech with chants of "Ayuso, Ayuso!", in reference to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the Madrilenian president, who some within the party and the Spanish right-wing saw as a possible successor as PP leader.[29]

PP leader Feijóo attempted unsuccessfully to convince Sánchez's PSOE to allow him to govern as the candidate of "the most voted political force" (pictured, both men in April 2022).

Former Madrilenian president Esperanza Aguirre said during an interview that the election result was attributable to Feijóo's strategy of "seeking to reach out to the PSOE rather than governing with Vox", and commented that Ayuso was the future of the party and of Spain.[30] Ayuso herself acknowledged on 26 July that she had received messages asking her "to take a step forward", but said she was not thinking of challenging Feijóo for the party leadership. "It cannot be that on Thursday we are giving him our support and applauding him [at a rally], and now throwing him off a bridge", she said.[31][32][33] However, she warned Feijóo against seeking an agreement with the PSOE to allow his investiture, commenting that "You cannot reach a deal with the disaster."[34] On 27 July, party secretary-general Cuca Gamarra criticized Aguirre's remarks as outside the party's unity and discourse.[35]

Some commentators voiced doubts over whether Feijóo would be willing or able to remain in opposition in the event that Sánchez was able to secure a second term in office.[36][37] Following the counting of the expat vote, one seat in Madrid was flipped from PSOE to PP, meaning that Sánchez's investiture would require an affirmative vote from Junts, not just an abstention. The PP then U-turned on its previous hardline stance towards Junts on 29 July, expressing willingness to engage in talks with Puigdemont's party "within the Constitution's framework" in order to invest Feijóo as prime minister,[38][39] though this was later ruled out by Gamarra.[40] That same day, Puigdemont tweeted that his party would not be convinced by "political blackmail", and saw only three possibilities out of the deadlock: Junts voting in favour of Sánchez, the PSOE allowing Feijóo's investiture, or a repeat election.[41] Sánchez and the PSOE were said to be in no hurry to secure his investiture, instead allowing Junts time to "reflect" on their options as Feijóo exhausted himself looking for support ahead of a failed investiture.[42][43]

On 30 July, Feijóo sent an official letter to Sánchez, softening the tone his party had maintained against Sánchez's government for years, and asking for a meeting the following week to negotiate a solution that allowed the party with the most votes to govern.[44][45] Sánchez wrote back the same day noting that, in a parliamentary democracy, it is whoever secures the most support in Congress, and not the most votes, who is entitled to govern, and reminding Feijóo of the multiple PP–Vox agreements reached in previous years throughout Spain in which the PP did not finish in first place. Sánchez said he would wait until the Congress convened for the new parliamentary term on 17 August, and the King nominated a candidate for investiture, before meeting Feijóo, "as well as the rest of spokespersons of the parliamentary groups with representation in the chamber".[46][47]

By 31 July, Feijóo's successful investiture became increasingly unfeasible. CCa, until then considered as a likely Feijóo ally, expressed its willingness to negotiate an investiture agreement with Sánchez, on the grounds that, while it rejected any government that included either Sumar or Vox, it felt closer to Yolanda Díaz's party than to Santiago Abascal's.[48][49] Javier Esparza, the leader of UPN, the only party which up to that point had pledged its support to Feijóo,[50] acknowledged that, while it was legitimate for Feijóo to continue seeking support for his investiture, it was unlikely for him to be elected prime minister "in any of the scenarios", and said Feijóo could not "keep fooling people".[51] The same day, Vox attacked Feijóo, blaming him for the failure to win a right-wing majority in the election and accusing him of "deceiving all Spaniards". The party's secretary-general Jorge Buxadé said that "Feijóo spent the campaign talking about how he was close to an absolute majority, encouraged by his own rigged opinion polls".[52] This came after it was revealed that Feijóo and Abascal had met secretly after the election to analyze the results.[53]

On 6 August, Abascal offered to support Feijóo's investiture for a minority government without demanding cabinet posts for his party "in order to prevent Sánchez from being elected with the support of Spain's enemies", a reference to pro-independence parties. However, party members acknowledged this unconditional support was offered due to Feijóo having no chance of being elected.[54] The next day, the PP attempted to use the possibility of a government without Vox as leverage to gain the PNV's support,[55] to which the PNV replied that they had expressed their opposition to Feijóo's investiture "with crystal clarity" on 24 July.[56][57]

Media focus centered around the possible outcome of the vote for the Congress bureau when the chamber reconvened on 17 August, as the PP's absolute majority in the Senate ensured control of that chamber.[58] Both PP and PSOE attempted to secure the support of minor parties for their candidates to the post of president of the Congress of Deputies: the PP fielded Cuca Gamarra as their candidate, while the PSOE nominated former president of the Balearic Islands, Francina Armengol.[59][60]

Ahead of the election, both parties were tied at 171 expected votes for the post: Gamarra had the declared support of PP (137), Vox (33)—in exchange for a vice presidency in the chamber's bureau[61]—and UPN (1), while Armengol was expected to have the support of the PSOE (121), Sumar (31), ERC (7), EH Bildu (6), PNV (5) and the BNG (1).[62][63][64] The final positions of Junts (7) and CCa (1) were seen as decisive: if Junts did not support Armengol, CCa's single vote could decide the outcome.[65][66] In an attempt to break the deadlock, CCa proposed on 13 August that the Congress of Deputies should be presided over by a member of the PNV.[67] Feijóo was said to be willing to cede the post to the PNV in return for their support for Feijóo's investiture,[68] but this option was later ruled out by the PP due to the risk of losing the backing of Vox (who rejected supporting a PNV candidate for a post in the Congress bureau).[69][70] On 16 August, the day before the vote, Feijóo assured a meeting of his party's elected MPs that he had the confirmed support of "171 or 172 deputies", with talks ongoing to secure the support of CCa.[71]

The PSOE engaged in negotiations against the clock to secure the support of Junts, which had threatened to cast blank or invalid ballots and allow Gamarra's election with the support of PP and Vox.[72] Throughout the morning of 17 August, it was announced that the PSOE had reached an agreement with both Junts and ERC, promising to normalize the use of Catalan in Congress and the EU and to promote various investigative commissions (focused on Pegasus espionage and the 2017 Barcelona attacks) in exchange for both parties committing their support for Armengol and PSOE/Sumar candidates in the Congress bureau.[73][74][75]

Election of the President of the Congress of Deputies
Ballot →		17 August 2023
Required majority →		176 out of 350
	Francina Armengol (PSOE)	178 / 350	Y
	Cuca Gamarra (PP)	139 / 350	N
	Ignacio Gil Lázaro (Vox)	33 / 350	N
	Blank ballots	0 / 350
	Invalid ballots	0 / 350
	Absentees	0 / 350
Sources[76]

Armengol received support from PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV and the BNG, and was elected in the first ballot with 178 votes, two more than required for election. Unexpectedly, Gamarra received only 139 votes (of PP, UPN and CCa), with Vox voting for their own candidate after the PP refused to cede them a post in the Congress bureau.[76] This voting pattern was repeated for the remaining bureau posts (four vice presidencies and four secretaries), with PSOE and Sumar securing a majority of five posts in the parliamentary body, and the PP taking the remaining four.[77] Vox leader Santiago Abascal described the results as "real shame" and said he would demand an explanation from the PP, or else he would re-evaluate his party's support for any investiture attempt by Feijóo.[78] The outcome was seen as a victory for Pedro Sánchez, as the right-wing bloc split, leaving Feijóo in a precarious parliamentary situation for his investiture.[79][80] Later that day, following an emergency meeting of Feijóo with his executive to assess the political situation,[81] it was reported that the PP was considering holding a party congress to boost Feijóo's leadership internally.[82]

King Felipe VI summoned the political parties for a round of talks on 21 and 22 August to decide whether to nominate a candidate for investiture.[83] The king faced a difficult choice as, for the first time in the democratic era, two candidates—Sánchez and Feijóo—were equally intent on being nominated.[84] Feijóo's intentions were unchanged by his recent parliamentary setback, despite calls from some factions within his party asking him to "leave the fiction" of insisting that he had the required support for his investiture.[85][86]

Alberto Núñez Feijoó meeting Vox leader Santiago Abascal on 5 September 2023.

Despite Feijóo's investiture being widely expected to fail, the King nominated him as candidate on 22 August.[87] He justified his decision by stating that the PP had won the most seats and that, since no other clear majority for investiture had been evidenced during the round of talks (Sánchez had been clear in that he was the only candidate able to muster a parliamentary majority, but acknowledged that he did not have it yet[88]), the tradition of nominating the leader of the largest party should continue, while allowing for the fact that other candidates could be nominated if their investiture attempt was unsuccessful.[89][90] Sánchez had previously told the King that an investiture was not an "exhibition procedure", but that he would not oppose Feijóo being nominated to attempt it first.[91] The new president of the Congress, Francina Armengol, announced that she had agreed with Feijóo to set the start of the investiture debate for 26 September, with the first ballot being scheduled for 27 September and the date of a hypothetical new election being automatically set for 14 January 2024.[92][93][94] The PP asked for time to secure the required numbers for the ballot, aiming to persuade the PNV, Junts or even ERC to abstain,[95][96][97] despite these parties having already voiced their opposition to a PP government.[98]

The PP's approaches to Junts caused an internal rift with the party's Catalan branch, whose leader, Alejandro Fernández, publicly expressed his opposition to any talks with Puigdemont's party.[99] On 27 August, Feijóo acknowledged that he would be defeated in his investiture attempt, but said he would be presenting a government program that would lay "the first stone" for future attempts.[100] Feijóo also attempted to meet regional presidents to ask if they wanted to "contribute" to his program,[101] but this was rejected by all non-PP regional premiers.[102][103] In a meeting with Sánchez on 30 August, Feijóo asked the PSOE to facilitate his investiture for a 15-ministry government that would pass six major state pacts in a legislature to last a maximum of two years, with a new election scheduled for 2025.[104][105] The PSOE mocked Feijóo's proposal as asking Sánchez to help him repeal sanchismo,[106] while privately expressing bewilderment with the PP's continuous changes in strategy.[107]

Second deputy prime minister and Sumar leader Yolanda Díaz and Junts leader Carles Puigdemont met in Brussels on 4 September, allegedly in search of a "stable relationship" to "explore democratic solutions to the political conflict" in Catalonia. Following this meeting, the PP shifted towards accusing Pedro Sánchez of negotiating with Junts to grant its request of an amnesty law for all those convicted or prosecuted for the events surrounding the 2017 Catalan independence referendum and the 2017–2018 Spanish constitutional crisis.[108][109][110] The following day, Feijóo announced his refusal to engage in further talks with Junts "if the requirement is to compromise on an amnesty", while Vox reaffirmed its support for Feijóo's investiture "in the face of the blow to the Constitution that would occur from La Moncloa if Pedro Sánchez is proclaimed prime minister".[111][112] Nonetheless, the PP later acknowledged maintaining "informal contacts" with Junts in the weeks previous to Feijóo's investiture attempt on 26–27 September.[113][114]

PSOE and Sumar expressed differing stances on how to approach the negotiations with Junts: whereas Sumar claimed than an amnesty was "a constitutional and democratic formula" that was an acceptable "payment" for investiture, the PSOE explained that "[Their] working method is to explain the agreements once they have occurred".[115] The issue of the amnesty also caused internal rifts within the PSOE, with former prime minister Felipe González and deputy prime minister Alfonso Guerra, as well as the incumbent president of Castilla–La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, among the leading critics.[116][117][118] The PP's announcement of a demonstration in Madrid on 24 September against the proposed amnesty, two days ahead of Feijóo's scheduled investiture debate,[119] also saw the expulsion of Nicolás Redondo Terreros—former leader of the Socialist Party of the Basque Country—from the PSOE "for his repeated contempt for the party", after a long history of clashes with the party leadership's decisions, culminating in his vocal support for the PP-led protests.[120] The PP demonstration, initially expected to gather as many as 200,000 people,[121] had to be relocated to a smaller location due to "capacity issues";[122] finally, about 40,000 to 60,000 people from across Spain gathered to protest against Sánchez, which the PP described as a successful show of force ahead of Feijóo's investiture and "the largest political meeting in its history".[123][124] The PSOE criticized the demonstration, arguing that it saw the acknowledgment of Feijóo's failure to secure a parliamentary majority for his investiture.[125][126]

Simultaneously, a reform of the Congress internal regulations was proposed to allow for the use of co-official languages (Catalan, Basque and Galician, as well as any other "that has official status in any autonomous community in accordance with the Constitution and the corresponding Statute of Autonomy") in parliamentary debates, the fulfillment of a pledge from the PSOE to ERC and Junts in exchange for their support for Armengol's candidacy for the post of speaker.[127][128] This reform proposal was passed by the Congress on 21 September with a 180–170 result, with one PP deputy erroneously casting a 'Yes' vote.[129][130]

Alberto Núñez Feijoó during the second day of debate on his investiture on 27 September 2023.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo's investiture debate was scheduled to start at 12:00 CEST (UTC+2) on 26 September with Feijóo's speech, to be followed by the replies of all other parties and a first round of voting on 27 September, with a second and final ballot on 29 September if required.[131]

In what was regarded by the media as an attempt to reaffirm his leadership within the PP, Feijóo used his speech to attack Sánchez and the amnesty proposal tabled by Catalan pro-independence parties.[132][133] He also stated that he had the votes to be prime minister within his reach, but that he would not pay the price for them.[134] Previously, Feijóo had arrived to the Congress accompanied by every deputy of his parliamentary group.[135]

The PSOE unexpectedly sent former mayor of Valladolid Óscar Puente, instead of Sánchez himself, to take the floor against Feijóo.[136][137]

Investiture Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP)
Ballot →		27 September 2023	29 September 2023[lower-alpha 1]
Required majority →		176 out of 350 N	Simple N
	Yes • PP (137) • Vox (33) • CCa (1) • UPN (1)	172 / 350	172 / 350
	No • PSOE (121) • Sumar (31) • ERC (7) • Junts (7) (6 on 29 Sep) • EH Bildu (6) • PNV (5) • BNG (1)	178 / 350	177 / 350
	Abstentions	0 / 350	0 / 350
	Absentees	0 / 350	0 / 350
Sources[138]