2024 Sindh provincial election

Provincial elections are scheduled to be held in Sindh within 90 days after the early dissolution of the Sindh Assembly on 11 August 2023. This means that the election must be held by or before 9 November 2023.[2] However, on 5 August 2023, after the approval of the results of the 2023 digital census by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, elections will be delayed for several months, as new delimitations will be published on 14 December 2023.[3][4] The likely impact of this is polls not being held until February 2024 at the earliest.

2024 Sindh provincial election
By 22 January 2024[1]
130 out of 168 seats in the Sindh Assembly[lower-alpha 1]
85 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Murad Ali Shah Haleem Adil Sheikh Syed Mustafa Kamal
Party PPP PTI MQM-P
Leader since 29 July 2016 2 June 2023 2023
Leader's seat Jamshoro-I Karachi East-I -
Last election 38.44%, 99 Seats 14.47%, 30 seats 7.65%, 20 seats
Current seats 99 30 21
Seats needed Steady Increase 55 Increase 64
Map of Sindh with Provincial Assembly constituencies
Incumbent Chief Minister

Murad Ali Shah
PPP


Electoral system

The 168 seats of the Sindh Assembly consist of 130 general seats, whose members are elected by the first-past-the-post voting system through single-member constituencies. 29 seats are reserved for women and 9 seats are reserved for non-Muslims. The members on these seats are elected through proportional representation based on the total number of general seats secured by each political party.

Background

In the 2018 election, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) won 99 seats, gaining a majority in the Provincial Assembly. It became the third consecutive time that the PPP was able to form government in Sindh Since 2008.[5]

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the largest party in Karachi by winning 21 out of 44 seats from the city. It was the first time since 1988 that any party other than the MQM-P got the mandate to represent the city on the provincial and national levels.[6] Overall, the PTI won 30 seats and became the second largest party, and the largest party in the opposition.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement - Pakistan (MQM-P), which was the largest and most popular party in Karachi, Hyderabad and other urban areas of Sindh, faced a tough challenge from the rising popularity of the PTI and received its worst ever result. It won only 21 seats and became the third largest party in the province. The MQM-P also opted to join the opposition.

In April 2022, after circumstances arising during a political crisis in Pakistan after the successful no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, the MQM-P left the opposition and joined the PPP-led provincial government.

In September 2022, Former Prime Minister and Leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Imran Khan announced to liberate Sindh from Zardari Mafia.[7] He stated that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf will team up with the youth to liberate the poor and oppressed people of Interior Sindh from Feudal lords of Pakistan People's Party.[8] This was the very first time some party leader threatened dominance of People's Party in Sindh and upcoming election will be a battle for survival of PPP[9] in interior Sindh as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has support of the people of Karachi and Hyderabad and will be able to gain seats in Interior Sindh if they campaign well.[10]

Merger of MQM factions

Since the appointment of Kamran Tessori as the Governor of Sindh, efforts began to merge breakaway factions of the MQM-P like the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) and the Farooq Sattar group back into the MQM-P to unite their vote bank to overcome the growing popularity of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).[11][12] The Mohajir Qaumi Movement Pakistan - Haqiqi (MQM-H) was also approached, but refused to merge the with the MQM-P.[13]

On the evening of 12 January 2023 Mustafa Kamal, the leader of the PSP, and Farooq Sattar announced their merger with the MQM-P in a press conference.[14]

Opinion polls
Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link PTI PPP MQM(P) MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size		 Undecideds &
Non-voters[lower-alpha 2]
PA 11 August 2023 The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Kamran Tessori on the advice of Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah.[15]
Gallup Pakistan 30 June 2023 PDF 43.4% 42.2% 2.4% 1.2% 10.8% 1.2% N/A 17%
Iris Communications 5 April 2023 PDF 29.5% 34.1% 10.2% 26.1% 4.6% 3,000 12%
Sindh By-elections 16 October 2022 50.0% 25.6% 12.5% 0.15 11.8% 24.4% 146,470 1,493
NA-245 By-election 21 August 2022 [16] 48.85% 21.87% 23.51 5.77 26.98% 60,760 0.70%
NA 11-12 April 2022Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 17% 44% 5% 34% 27% ~810 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 30% 34% 3% 3% 28% 2% 4% ~1,300 39%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 13% 44% 7% 36% 31% 867 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 13% 22% 1% 3% 61% 9% 467 N/A[lower-alpha 3]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 14.5% 38.4% 7.7% 6.1% 25.9% 7.4% 23.6% 10,025,437 N/A

Notes
  1. 29 seats are reserved for women and 9 are reserved for non-Muslims filled through Proportional representation
  2. This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  3. This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References
  1. https://www.dawn.com/news/1783238
  2. "The Constitution of Pakistan, Part VIII: Elections". Archived from the original on 2018-12-26. Retrieved 2022-09-25.
  3. "Pakistan's general election may be delayed by new census". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2023-08-06.
  4. Sadozai, Irfan (2023-08-17). "Election delay all but certain as ECP decides to go for fresh delimitation". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-08-17.
  5. "PPP sweeps Sindh". The Express Tribune. 2018-07-26. Archived from the original on 2022-09-25. Retrieved 2022-09-25.
  6. "PTI breaks decades-old MQM hegemony in Karachi". Daily Times. 2018-07-27. Archived from the original on 2018-07-28. Retrieved 2022-09-25.
  7. News Desk (2022-09-06). "Imran urges Sindh's youth to be part of his team to defeat Zardari". Pakistan Observer. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  8. Malik, Adam (2014-11-20). "'Liberating Sindh': Imran Khan and the Hero syndrome". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  9. Khan, Ayaz Muhammad (2021-08-07). "Can PTI dethrone PPP from Sindh government?". Global Village Space. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  10. News Desk (2018-04-06). "Will PTI be able to gain seats in Interior Sindh?". Global Village Space. Retrieved 2022-09-26.
  11. "Karachi-based MQM factions in talks for merger". gulfnews.com. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  12. "All MQM factions agree to unite, says Tessori". www.thenews.com.pk. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  13. Reporter, The Newspaper's Staff (2023-01-07). "Afaq not against merger of MQM factions, says governor". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  14. Web Desk (2023-01-12). "PSP, Farooq Sattar formally announce merger with MQM-P". ARY NEWS. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  15. "Sindh Assembly bows out as Governor Tissori signs dissolution summary". Geo.tv. 2023-08-11. Retrieved 2023-08-11.
  16. "PTI wins NA-245 seat by huge margin". The Express Tribune. 2022-08-21. Retrieved 2022-08-23.
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