2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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| Turnout | 64.85%  17.33pp [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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   Ducey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Garcia: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The primary was held on August 28.[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.
As of 2023, this is the last time that a Republican has won a Gubernatorial Election in Arizona.
Republican primary
Nominee
- Doug Ducey, incumbent governor[3]
Eliminated in primary
- Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona[4][5]
- Robert Weber (write-in)[6]
Endorsements
Doug Ducey
- Arizona Association of Realtors[7]
- Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry[8]
- Arizona Fraternal Order of Police[9]
- Arizona Police Association[10]
- Arizona State Troopers Association[11]
- The Arizona Republic[12]
- Arizona Daily Star[13]
- Casa Grande Dispatch[14]
- Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona)[15]
- The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona)[16]
- Chandler Chamber of Commerce[17]
- Gilbert Chamber of Commerce[18]
- Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce[19]
- Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce[20]
- Mesa Chamber of Commerce[21]
- Tucson Metro Chamber[22]
- National Border Patrol Council[23]
- National Federation of Independent Business[24]
- Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona[25]
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff[26]
- Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff[26]
- Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff[26]
- John Doyle, Nogales Mayor[27]
- Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis Mayor[27]
- Robert Uribe, Douglas Mayor[27]
- Cindy McCain, philanthropist and businesswoman[28]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[29]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[30]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey |
Ken Bennett |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 44% | 22% | 35% |
Results
Results by county:
Ducey
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 463,672 | 70.7 | |
| Republican | Ken Bennett | 191,775 | 29.3 | |
| Republican | Robert Weber (write-in) | 91 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 655,538 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Nominee
- David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014[32][33]
Eliminated in primary
- Steve Farley, state senator[34]
- Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[35]
- Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[6]
Declined
- Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990[36]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[37]
- Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)[38][39]
Endorsements
David Garcia
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[40]
- Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council[41]
- Arizona Education Association[42]
- Communications Workers of America[43]
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Farley |
Kelly Fryer |
David Garcia |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 589 | ± 4.0% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 28% |
| Data Orbital Archived 2018-07-03 at the Wayback Machine | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 11% | 6% | 33% | 49% |
| Emerson College Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 13% | 8% | 30% | 48% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) | May 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 11% | 11% | 32% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 446 | – | 22% | – | 43% | 36% |
Results
Results by county:
Garcia
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Farley
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Garcia | 255,555 | 50.6 | |
| Democratic | Steve Farley | 163,072 | 32.3 | |
| Democratic | Kelly Fryer | 86,810 | 17.2 | |
| Democratic | Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) | 44 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 505,481 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Disqualified
Endorsements
Kevin McCormick
- Individuals
- William Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts[55]
Green primary
Independents
Disqualified
Declined
- Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security[61]
General election
Debates
| Dates | Location | Ducey | Garcia | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24, 2018 | Tempe, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate – YouTube |
| September 25, 2018 | Tucson, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate – C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[62] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[63] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[64] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[65] | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[67] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[68] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[69][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[70] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[71] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
David Garcia (D) |
Angel Torres (G) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | – | 2% | 5% |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX Archived 2018-11-05 at the Wayback Machine | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 57% | 35% | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 2% | 5% |
| 710 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 3% | 7% | ||
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 43% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
| HighGround Public Affairs Archived 2018-10-30 at the Wayback Machine | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 35% | 4% | – | 7% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 54% | 40% | 5% | <1% | 2% |
| 55% | 42% | – | 1% | 1% | ||||
| 793 RV | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 5% | <1% | 3% | ||
| 55% | 41% | – | 1% | 3% | ||||
| YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | – | 1% | 5% |
| Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 3% |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Change Research (D-Garcia) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 47% | 40% | – | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | 2% | – | 7% |
| Data Orbital Archived 2018-10-05 at the Wayback Machine | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 1% | 7% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 2% | 9% | ||
| Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Suffolk University Archived 2018-10-03 at the Wayback Machine | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 10% |
| Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 45% | 40% | – | – | 15% |
| 610 RV | – | 41% | 37% | – | – | 19% | ||
| Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 6% | 14% |
| Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
| 51% | 43% | – | <1% | 5% | ||||
| 763 RV | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
| 51% | 42% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 2% |
| 854 RV | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 4% | ||
| Ipsos Archived 2018-09-20 at the Wayback Machine | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | – | 4% | 7% |
| TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) Archived 2018-09-19 at the Wayback Machine | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 0% | 3% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 40% | – | 1% | 8% |
| 801 RV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | – | 1% | 10% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
| Data Orbital Archived 2018-09-11 at the Wayback Machine | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | – | 2%[72] | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | August 30–31, 2018 | 554 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 13% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | – | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Steve Farley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Steve Farley (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| GQR Research (D-Farley) | February 23 – March 5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
- with generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult Archived 2018-07-16 at the Wayback Machine | June 29 – July 9, 2018 | 1,641 | ± 2.0% | 34% | 41% | 25% |
- with Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | 21% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 1,330,863 | 56.00% | +2.56% | |
| Democratic | David Garcia | 994,341 | 41.84% | +0.22% | |
| Green | Angel Torres | 50,962 | 2.14% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 275 | 0.01% | -0.10% | ||
| Total votes | 2,376,441 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Results by County
| County | David Garcia Democratic |
Doug Ducey Republican |
Angel Torres Green |
Margin | Total
votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Apache | 14,955 | 59.72% | 9,175 | 36.64% | 912 | 3.64% | 5,780 | 23.08% | 25,042 |
| Cochise | 14,576 | 32.10% | 29,638 | 65.26% | 1,201 | 2.64% | -15,062 | -33.17% | 45,415 |
| Coconino | 30,712 | 55.91% | 22,778 | 41.47% | 1,440 | 2.62% | 7,934 | 14.44% | 54,930 |
| Gila | 5,623 | 27.38% | 14,444 | 70.34% | 468 | 2.28% | -8,821 | -42.96% | 20,535 |
| Graham | 2,569 | 24.19% | 7,776 | 73.21% | 276 | 2.60% | -5,207 | -49.03% | 10,621 |
| Greenlee | 832 | 32.64% | 1,637 | 64.22% | 80 | 3.14% | -805 | -31.58% | 2,549 |
| La Paz | 1,122 | 21.99% | 3,852 | 75.49% | 129 | 2.53% | -2,730 | -53.50% | 5,103 |
| Maricopa | 603,055 | 42.09% | 800,210 | 55.85% | 29,495 | 2.06% | -197,155 | -13.76% | 1,432,760 |
| Mohave | 13,580 | 18.97% | 56,682 | 79.18% | 1,325 | 1.85% | -43,102 | -60.21% | 71,587 |
| Navajo | 13,646 | 37.30% | 21,880 | 59.81% | 1,055 | 2.88% | -8,234 | -22.51% | 36,581 |
| Pima | 195,227 | 50.25% | 184,621 | 47.52% | 8,678 | 2.23% | 10,606 | 2.73% | 388,526 |
| Pinal | 38,801 | 33.21% | 75,272 | 64.42% | 2,767 | 2.37% | -36,471 | -31.21% | 116,840 |
| Santa Cruz | 8,407 | 62.46% | 4,792 | 35.60% | 261 | 1.94% | 3,615 | 26.86% | 13,460 |
| Yavapai | 32,159 | 29.68% | 74,148 | 68.44% | 2,029 | 1.87% | -41,989 | -38.76% | 108,336 |
| Yuma | 19,077 | 43.47% | 23,958 | 54.60% | 846 | 1.93% | -4,881 | -11.12%% | 43,881 |
| Total | 994,341 | 41.8% | 1,330,863 | 56.0% | 50,962 | 2.1% | 336,522 | 14.2% | 2,376,166 |
Results by congressional district
Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[74]
| District | David Garcia Democratic |
Doug Ducey Republican |
Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43.1% | 54.3% | Tom O'Halleran |
| 2nd | 46.1% | 51.6% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 3rd | 57.7% | 35.7% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 25.1% | 72.9% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 34.0% | 64.0% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 38.2% | 60.1% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 67.3% | 29.6% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 33.2% | 64.6% | Debbie Lesko |
| 9th | 52.2% | 45.5% | Greg Stanton |
Voter Demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Garcia | Ducey | No Answer |
% of Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 40 | 58 | 2 | 47 |
| Women | 43 | 55 | 2 | 53 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| 25–29 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| 30–39 years old | 45 | 52 | 3 | 17 |
| 40–49 years old | 43 | 55 | 2 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 37 | 61 | 2 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 40 | 59 | 1 | 29 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 37 | 62 | 1 | 75 |
| Black | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Latino | 56 | 44 | N/A | 19 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Race and Gender | ||||
| White men | 34 | 64 | 2 | 34 |
| White women | 39 | 60 | 1 | 41 |
| Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino men | 53 | 46 | 1 | 9 |
| Latina women | 58 | 42 | N/A | 10 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 32 | 67 | 1 | 25 |
| Some college education | 40 | 58 | 2 | 28 |
| Associate Degree | 38 | 59 | 3 | 10 |
| Bachelor's Degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 23 |
| Advanced degree | 59 | 40 | 1 | 14 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 48 | 49 | 3 | 27 |
| White no college degree | 30 | 69 | 1 | 38 |
| Non-white college graduates | 51 | 47 | 2 | 9 |
| Non-white no college degree | 61 | 38 | 1 | 16 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 50 | 49 | 1 | 15 |
| White women without college degrees | 33 | 66 | 1 | 26 |
| White men with college degrees | 46 | 49 | 5 | 12 |
| White men without college degrees | 28 | 72 | N/A | 21 |
| Non-whites | 58 | 40 | 2 | 25 |
| Military service | ||||
| Veteran | 33 | 65 | 2 | 14 |
| Non-veteran | 45 | 54 | 1 | 86 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 36 | 62 | 2 | 15 |
| $30,000-$49,999 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 19 |
| $50,000-$99,999 | 46 | 52 | 2 | 33 |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 31 | 67 | 2 | 24 |
| Over $200,000 | 28 | 72 | N/A | 9 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 85 | 14 | 1 | 31 |
| Republicans | 5 | 95 | N/A | 38 |
| Independents | 45 | 52 | 3 | 31 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 |
| Democratic women | 91 | 9 | N/A | 17 |
| Republican men | 5 | 95 | N/A | 15 |
| Republican women | 4 | 96 | N/A | 23 |
| Independent men | 42 | 56 | 2 | 18 |
| Independent women | 48 | 47 | 5 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 83 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
| Moderates | 57 | 41 | 2 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 4 | 95 | 1 | 40 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 51 | 45 | 4 | 15 |
| No | 41 | 58 | 1 | 85 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 64 | 33 | 3 | 42 |
| Immigration | 8 | 91 | 1 | 31 |
| Economy | 38 | 60 | 2 | 18 |
| Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 52 | 46 | 2 | 43 |
| Suburban | 34 | 64 | 2 | 51 |
| Rural | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Source: CNN[75] | ||||
References
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - "Arizona Election Information". apps.azsos.gov.
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- Mike Pence. "Congratulations to @DougDucey on his primary victory tonight in Arizona. We need strong governors like Doug across this nation to help enact the @RealDonaldTrump agenda that has our economy BOOMING! We're with you all the way!". Twitter.
- Donald J. Trump. "Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona is doing a great job. It would be really nice to show your support tomorrow by voting for him in Tuesdays Primary. Doug is strong on Crime, the Border, and our Second Amendment. Loves our Military & our Vets. He has my full and complete Endorsement". Twitter.
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- Barry Hess (L) with 2%
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External links
- Official campaign websites
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