Blue wall (British politics)
In British politics, the blue wall is a set of parliamentary constituencies in southern England which have traditionally voted for the Conservative Party, but generally opposed Brexit and are seen as being potentially vulnerable to gains either by the Liberal Democrats or the Labour Party.[1] This shift was noticeable in the UK general elections of 2017 (when Labour gained Canterbury, which had had a Conservative MP since 1918) and 2019 (when the Liberal Democrats gained St Albans and Labour gained Putney).
Overview
The "blue wall" is the inverse of the "red wall", a term coined in August 2019 to describe a set of constituencies in northern England, the Midlands and Wales that had long been held by Labour, and many of which were later gained by the Conservatives at the 2019 election.[2][3] YouGov defines the blue wall as seats which are "currently held by the Conservatives; voted to Remain in 2016; and have a higher-than-average concentration of degree holders in the population (25%+)."[4][5]
The term saw significant use following the 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election, in which the Liberal Democrats overturned a large Conservative majority; Ed Davey, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats, knocked down a literal blue wall of bricks with an orange mallet to symbolise his party's victory.[6] He said afterwards that he believed "the blue wall in the south can be taken by the Liberal Democrats in large numbers of constituencies."[7] In July 2021, Davey started the process of selecting parliamentary candidates in blue wall seats[8] and the party revealed its first candidate, for Guildford, the following month.[9]
Starting in December 2021, with the 2021 North Shropshire by-election, the usage of this term has evolved to mean any seat which the Conservative Party has traditionally held.[10] The evolved usage has been demonstrated by Davey describing the North Shropshire seat as being another seat falling from the blue wall.[11]
In February 2022, think tank Onward posited that the north of England—as part of the red wall—would be "the principal battleground in the next general election" with there being "no evidence of a southern 'blue wall' ready to fall". The study found that only 20% of battleground seats at the next election would be in southern England, and in such seats the Conservatives could "gain ground". Onward's director Will Tanner said, "While the south is steadily becoming less Conservative over time, there is no blue wall waiting to fall across the Home Counties in two years' time". However, Onward did admit that certain seats "in London and the south-east are drifting away from the Tories and could fall in two or three elections' time", with data analyst James Blagden observing that "[t]he heart of the Tory party has been shifting northwards for the last 30 years" yet any potential of their "traditional southern heartlands slowly drifting away" existed in the long-term, with their "greatest short-term concern" being "backsliding in the red wall, losing their iconic 2019 gains, and putting their majority at serious risk."[12]
A few weeks after the 2023 United Kingdom local elections, which saw the Conservatives lose over 1,000 seats, former Conservative minister David Gauke told The Observer that he believed the blue wall "is going to crumble", but not for some time. "The Conservative party’s got a real long-term problem in the home counties," he said. "Rishi Sunak is perfectly capable of appealing to blue wall seats, but he's the leader of a party that people have seen over quite a long period of time heading in a particular direction. Those memories are not going to disappear quickly. There's an element of 'long Boris' about it all."[13]
Blue wall constituencies
The following constituencies, among others, are considered part of the blue wall.
| Constituency | County | % Remain in 2016 EU referendum |
2015 result | 2017 result | 2019 result | 2021–22 by-elections | Next election | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | Kent | 54.7% | Con +18.4 | Lab +0.3 | Lab +3.1 | Held by the Conservatives from 1918 to 2017 | ||
| Chesham and Amersham | Buckinghamshire | 55.0% | Con +45.4 | Con +40.1 | Con +29.1 | LD +21.2 | Held by the Conservatives from 1974 to 2021 | |
| Chipping Barnet | Greater London | 59.1% | Con +14.5 | Con +0.6 | Con +2.1 | Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1974 | ||
| Cities of London and Westminster | Greater London | 71.4% | Con +26.7 | Con +8.2 | Con +9.3 | Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1950 | ||
| Esher and Walton | Surrey | 58.4% | Con +50.2 | Con +38.9 | Con +4.4 | Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997 | ||
| Guildford | Surrey | 58.9% | Con +41.6 | Con +30.7 | Con +5.7 | Held by the Conservatives since 2005 and from 1910 to 2001 | ||
| North Shropshire | Shropshire | 40.2% | Con +31.6 | Con +29.4 | Con +40.6 | LD +15.6 | Held by the Conservatives from 1832 to 2021 (other than from 1904 to 1906)[lower-alpha 1] | |
| Putney | Greater London | 73.2% | Con +23.8 | Con +3.3 | Lab +9.4 | Held by the Conservatives from 2005 to 2019 | ||
| South Cambridgeshire | Cambridgeshire | 61.6% | Con +33.5 | Con +24.6 | Con +4.3 | Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997 | ||
| St Albans | Hertfordshire | 62.6% | Con +23.3 | Con +10.7 | LD +10.9 | Held by the Conservatives from 2005 to 2019 | ||
| Tiverton and Honiton | Devon | 42.2% | Con +37.5 | Con +34.3 | Con +40.7 | LD +14.4 | Held by the Conservatives from 1997 to 2022 | |
| Wimbledon | Greater London | 70.6% | Con +26.1 | Con +10.9 | Con +1.2 | Held by the Conservatives since 2005 | ||
| Wycombe | Buckinghamshire | 52.0% | Con +28.9 | Con +12.3 | Con +7.7 | Held by the Conservatives since 1951 |
Criticism of the term
Just like "red wall", the concept of a blue wall has been criticised as a generalisation. James Blagden, Chief Data Analyst at the think tank Onward, said there was no evidence of a blue wall in Southern England that mirrored Labour's red wall.[14]
If a Blue Wall existed anywhere, it was London in the 1990s. The Conservatives polled better in London than they did nationally at every election between 1979 and 1992. But there was a 'correction waiting to happen'. Using regression analysis, we show that the Conservatives over-performed demographic predictions in 49 out of their 60 London seats in 1987. Only 11 of these remained after Tony Blair swept to victory ten years later. The pendulum swung hard against the Conservatives and has never returned. So much so that the Conservatives have never held a smaller share of London seats, while being in Government, than they do now.
Opinion polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Con | Lib Dem | Lab | Green | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26–27 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,274 | 32% | 25% | 33% | 4% | 6% | 1% |
| 12–13 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 33% | 25% | 32% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 30 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,150 | 31% | 24% | 35% | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,154 | 32% | 23% | 36% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| 2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 29% | 25% | 36% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| 18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 31% | 22% | 38% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| 4 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,328 | 30% | 26% | 34% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| 24 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 34% | 22% | 33% | 3% | 6% | 1% |
| 7 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,090 | 32% | 23% | 36% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
| 23 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 32% | 24% | 34% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| 9 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,228 | 35% | 20% | 37% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| 26 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,500 | 31% | 21% | 39% | 4% | 4% | 8% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,250 | 34% | 23% | 36% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,150 | 32% | 18% | 41% | 5% | 5% | 9% |
| 11–12 Feb 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 17% | 41% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
| 28–29 Jan 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,200 | 32% | 19% | 42% | 4% | 4% | 10% |
| 11 Jan 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,200 | 30% | 21% | 40% | 3% | 7% | 10% |
| 21–22 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | Peston | 1,200 | 30% | 21% | 41% | 4% | 4% | 11% |
| 13–14 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,250 | 32% | 23% | 38% | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,250 | 33% | 16% | 44% | 2% | 5% | 11% |
| 7–8 Oct 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,500 | 28% | 24% | 41% | 4% | 4% | 13% |
| 31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 | Opinium | Greenpeace | 1,000 | 43% | 14% | 34% | 5% | 4% | 9% |
| 6–18 Sep 2021 | YouGov | N/A | 841 | 45% | 15% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 19% |
| 20–28 Jul 2021 | YouGov | N/A | 1,141 | 44% | 18% | 24% | 9% | 6% | 20% |
| 12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 52% | 24% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 28% | |
See also
Notes
- North Shropshire was known as Oswestry from 1885 to 1983
References
- Curtice, John (2021). "Is there a Conservative 'blue wall'?". IPPR Progressive Review. 28 (2): 194–203. doi:10.1111/newe.12253. ISSN 2573-2331.
- Buckley, Mike (21 June 2021). "Red Wall or Blue Wall?". Byline Times. Archived from the original on 4 August 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
- Jeffrey, Luke (21 May 2021). "Crumbling in the Blue Wall: Why the south could be a headache for the Tories". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 14 November 2021.
- English, Patrick (30 July 2021). "The first ever poll of the so-called 'Blue Wall' finds the Conservatives struggling in their traditional heartland seats". YouGov. Archived from the original on 30 July 2021. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
- Wheeler, Richard (31 July 2021). "Conservatives at risk of losing seats in 'blue wall' heartlands, YouGov poll suggests". The Independent. Archived from the original on 5 August 2021. Retrieved 5 August 2021.
- Savage, Michael (19 June 2021). "The blue wall: what next for the Tories after a shock byelection defeat?". The Observer. Archived from the original on 20 June 2021. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
- Stone, Jon (20 June 2021). "Ed Davey says Lib Dems could win 'dozens' of blue wall seats from Tories after by-election win". The Independent. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
- Gye, Hugo (15 July 2021). "Liberal Democrats start picking 'blue wall' candidates for next election in bid to keep up pressure on Tories". i. Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
- Rogers, Alexandra (25 August 2021). "Lib Dems Eye Up Another 'Blue Wall' Win With Selection Of First General Election Candidate". HuffPost UK. Retrieved 4 October 2021.
- Drury, Colin (11 December 2021). "The blue wall falling? Safe Tory seat up for grabs amid growing voter disquiet in North Shropshire by-election". The Independent. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
- Gilholy, Georgia (17 December 2021). "Lib Dems claim voters have 'moved on from Brexit' after North Shropshire win". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
- Badshah, Nadeem (27 February 2022). "Next general election will be decided in north of England, says thinktank". The Guardian. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
- Savage, Michael (3 June 2023). "The 'blue wall' home counties are falling out of love with the Tory party". The Observer. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
- Blagden, James (28 February 2022). "A Tory "Blue Wall" Does Not Exist". Onward. Retrieved 30 June 2022.