Cardiff North (UK Parliament constituency)

Cardiff North (Welsh: Gogledd Caerdydd) is a constituency[n 1] represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2017 by Anna McMorrin of the Labour Party.[n 2]

Not to be confused with Cardiff North (Senedd constituency).

Cardiff North
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Outline map
Boundary of Cardiff North in Wales
Preserved countySouth Glamorgan
Population88,114 (2011 census)[1]
Electorate67,194 (December 2010)[2]
Current constituency
Created1950
Member of ParliamentAnna McMorrin (Labour)
SeatsOne
Created fromCardiff Central
Overlaps
SeneddCardiff North, South Wales Central

The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 8% of the vote since the 14.3% majority won in that year. The seat has changed political allegiance twice since that year.

The constituency is to retain its name and gain wards, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies and under the June 2023 final recommendations of the Boundary Commission for Wales for the next United Kingdom general election.[3]

History

This seat is the residential quarter of Wales' capital, over half of northern Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing, with a higher number of a middle class population than other sections. Historically it has mainly elected Conservative MPs, but with new housing development Welsh Labour has overturned the nominal majority more recently, turning the seat into a national target swing-constituency. By 2004, the Conservatives held a majority of councillors within the district (13, against five Liberal Democrats, three independents and no Labour), but in the following 2005 general election Welsh Labour's Julie Morgan retained the seat but with a reduced majority.

BBC News political editor Nick Robinson profiled the constituency as part of the BBC's build-up to the 2010 general election:[4] saying:

The Tories are hopeful of winning the seat, having topped the Euro poll not just here but in Wales as a whole. They have 13 councillors in this constituency as against Labour's none and the Lib Dems' five – even though in Cardiff as a whole, the Lib Dems control the city council. Labour hopes depend on stressing the independence and hard work of the local MP – Julie (wife of Rhodri) Morgan – and persuading those Lib Dems not to switch to the Tories.

Morgan stood again for Welsh Labour in 2010, whilst the Conservatives chose Jonathan Evans MEP, who had previously been the MP for Brecon and Radnor. Evans won by 194 votes.

In 2015, Labour attempted to take the seat back but new candidate, Craig Williams, took it with a majority of 2,137. Many had expected it to be very close run again. Labour retook the seat in 2017 on a 6.1% swing, producing a majority of 4,174; this was the first time in the seat's history it had voted for a Labour candidate in an election they did not win and the first time it elected an MP who is not a member of the largest party in the House of Commons since October 1974. In 2019, the seat bucked the trend by swinging to Labour despite their heavy defeat nationally.

Boundaries

1950–1974: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Gabalfa, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1974–1983: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1983–2010: The City of Cardiff wards of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane and St Mellons, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

2010–present: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau and Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

Cardiff city centre was in this constituency from its creation in 1950 until 1983, since when it has been in Cardiff Central.

Members of Parliament
ElectionMember[5][6]Party
1950 David Llewellyn Conservative
1959 Donald Box Conservative
1966 Ted Rowlands Labour
1970 Michael Roberts Conservative
Feb 1974 Ian Grist Conservative
1983 Gwilym Jones Conservative
1997 Julie Morgan Labour
2010 Jonathan Evans Conservative
2015 Craig Williams Conservative
2017 Anna McMorrin Labour

Elections

Elections in the 1950s
General election 1950: Cardiff North[7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Llewellyn 23,988 46.9 N/A
Labour William Howlett 21,081 41.3 N/A
Liberal Douglas Arthur Jones 6,017 11.8 N/A
Majority 2,907 5.6 N/A
Turnout 51,086 84.4 N/A
Registered electors 60,543
Conservative win (new seat)
General election 1951: Cardiff North[8][7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Llewellyn 29,408 56.6 +9.7
Labour Co-op John Evans 22,600 43.4 +2.1
Majority 6,808 13.2 +7.6
Turnout 52,008 85.6 +1.2
Registered electors 60,767
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1955: Cardiff North[7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Llewellyn 29,409 59.3 +2.7
Labour Leo Abse 20,224 40.7 –2.7
Majority 9,185 18.6 +5.4
Turnout 49,633 80.9 –4.7
Registered electors 61,352
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1959: Cardiff North [9][7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Donald Box 28,737 57.8 –1.5
Labour George S. Viner 18,054 36.3 –4.4
Plaid Cymru Emrys Roberts 2,553 5.1 N/A
Independent Stanley G. Worth 408 0.8 N/A
Majority 10,683 21.5 +3.0
Turnout 49,752 82.9 +2.0
Registered electors 59,986
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1960s
General election 1964: Cardiff North[10][7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Donald Box 21,837 44.6 –13.2
Labour John A. Reynolds 18,215 37.2 +0.9
Liberal Denis G. Rees 7,806 16.0 N/A
Plaid Cymru Emrys Roberts 1,058 2.2 –2.9
Majority 3,622 7.4 –14.1
Turnout 48,916 80.7 –2.2
Registered electors 60,632
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1966: Cardiff North[7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ted Rowlands 23,669 50.7 +13.5
Conservative Donald Box 22,997 49.3 +4.7
Majority 672 1.4 N/A
Turnout 46,666 79.0 –1.7
Registered electors 59,092
Labour gain from Conservative Swing

Elections in the 1970s
General election 1970: Cardiff North [11][7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Michael Roberts 21,983 46.9 –2.4
Labour Ted Rowlands 20,207 43.2 –7.5
Liberal Howard M. O'Brien 2,701 5.8 N/A
Plaid Cymru Brian Morgan Edwards 1,927 4.1 N/A
Majority 1,776 3.7 N/A
Turnout 46,818 76.6 –2.4
Registered electors 61,057
Conservative gain from Labour Swing
General election February 1974: Cardiff North[12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Grist 14,659 42.9 –4.0
Labour J. Collins 10,806 31.6 –11.6
Liberal T A D Thomas 7,139 20.9 +15.1
Plaid Cymru P Richards 1,586 4.6 +0.5
Majority 3,853 11.3 +7.6
Turnout 34,190 78.6 +2.0
Registered electors 43,511
Conservative hold Swing
General election October 1974: Cardiff North[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Grist 13,480 41.9 –1.0
Labour J Collins 11,479 35.7 +4.1
Liberal Mike German 5,728 17.8 –3.1
Plaid Cymru P. Richards 1,464 4.6 ±0.0
Majority 2,001 6.2 –5.1
Turnout 32,151 73.3 –5.3
Registered electors 43,858
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1979: Cardiff North[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Grist 17,181 47.3 +5.4
Labour M D Petrou 13,133 36.2 +0.5
Liberal Mike German 4,921 13.5 –4.3
Plaid Cymru Owen John Thomas 1,081 3.0 –1.6
Majority 4,048 11.1 +4.9
Turnout 36,316 75.7 +2.4
Registered electors 47,973
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1980s
General election 1983: Cardiff North[15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gwilym Jones 19,433 47.1 –0.2
SDP Anthony Jeremy 12,585 30.5 +17.0
Labour Jane Hutt 8,256 20.0 –16.2
Plaid Cymru Dafydd J. L. Huws 974 2.4 –0.6
Majority 6,848 16.6 +5.5
Turnout 41,248 77.3 +1.6
Registered electors 53,377
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1987: Cardiff North[16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gwilym Jones 20,061 45.3 –1.8
Labour Stephen Tarbet 11,827 26.7 +6.7
SDP Anthony Jeremy 11,725 26.5 –4.0
Plaid Cymru Eluned Bush 692 1.5 –0.9
Majority 8,234 18.6 +2.0
Turnout 44,305 81.0 +3.7
Registered electors 54,704
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1990s
General election 1992: Cardiff North[17][18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gwilym Jones 21,547 45.1 –0.2
Labour Julie Morgan 18,578 38.9 +12.2
Liberal Democrats Eve Warlow 6,487 13.6 –12.9
Plaid Cymru Eluned Bush 916 1.9 +0.4
BNP John Morse 121 0.3 N/A
Natural Law David Palmer 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,969 6.2 –12.4
Turnout 47,735 84.1 +3.1
Registered electors 56,721
Conservative hold Swing –6.2
General election 1997: Cardiff North[19][20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Morgan 24,460 50.4 +11.5
Conservative Gwilym Jones 16,334 33.7 –11.4
Liberal Democrats Robyn Rowland 5,294 10.9 –2.7
Plaid Cymru Colin Palfrey 1,201 2.5 +0.6
Referendum Edward J. Litchfield 1,199 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,126 16.7 N/A
Turnout 48,488 80.2 –3.9
Registered electors 60,468
Labour gain from Conservative Swing –11.5

Elections in the 2000s
General election 2001: Cardiff North[21][22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Morgan 19,845 45.9 –4.5
Conservative Alastair Watson 13,680 31.6 –2.1
Liberal Democrats John Dixon 6,631 15.3 +4.4
Plaid Cymru Sion Jobbins 2,471 5.7 +3.2
UKIP Don Hulston 613 1.4 N/A
Majority 6,165 14.3 –2.4
Turnout 43,240 69.0 –11.2
Registered electors 62,634
Labour hold Swing
General election 2005: Cardiff North[23][24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Morgan 17,707 39.0 –6.9
Conservative Jonathan Morgan 16,561 36.5 +4.9
Liberal Democrats John Dixon 8,483 18.7 +3.4
Plaid Cymru John Rowlands 1,936 4.3 –1.4
UKIP Don Hulston 534 1.2 –0.2
Forward Wales Alison Hobbs 138 0.3 N/A
Rainbow Dream Ticket Catherine Taylor-Dawson 1 0.0 N/A
Majority 1,146 2.5 –11.8
Turnout 45,360 70.5 +1.5
Registered electors 64,390
Labour hold Swing –5.9

Elections in the 2010s
General election 2010: Cardiff North[25][26][27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jonathan Evans 17,860 37.5 +1.0
Labour Julie Morgan 17,666 37.1 –1.9
Liberal Democrats John Dixon 8,724 18.3 –0.4
Plaid Cymru Llywelyn Rhys 1,588 3.3 –1.0
UKIP Lawrence Gwynn 1,130 2.4 +1.2
Green Christopher von Ruhland 362 0.8 N/A
Christian Derek Thomson 300 0.6 N/A
Majority 194 0.4 N/A
Turnout 47,630 72.7 +2.2
Registered electors 65,553
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +1.5
General election 2015: Cardiff North[28][29][30]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Craig Williams 21,709 42.4 +4.9
Labour Mari Williams 19,572 38.3 +1.2
UKIP Ethan R Wilkinson 3,953 7.7 +5.3
Plaid Cymru Elin Jones 2,301 4.5 +1.2
Liberal Democrats Elizabeth Clark 1,953 3.8 –14.5
Green Ruth Osner 1,254 2.5 +1.7
Christian Jeff Green 331 0.6 ±0.0
Alter Change Shaun Jenkins 78 0.2 N/A
Rejected ballots 80
Majority 2,137 4.1 +3.7
Turnout 51,151 76.1 +3.4
Registered electors 67,196
Conservative hold Swing +1.8

Of the 80 rejected ballots:

  • 64 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.[29]
  • 14 voted for more than one candidate.[29]
  • 2 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.[29]
See also: Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15 § Cardiff North
General election 2017: Cardiff North[31][32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Anna McMorrin 26,081 50.1 +11.8
Conservative Craig Williams 21,907 42.1 –0.3
Plaid Cymru Steffan Webb 1,738 3.3 –1.2
Liberal Democrats Matt Hemsley 1,714 3.3 –0.5
UKIP Gary Oldfield 582 1.1 –6.6
Rejected ballots 98
Majority 4,174 8.0 N/A
Turnout 52,022 77.4 +1.3
Registered electors 67,220
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +6.1

Of the 98 rejected ballots:

  • 77 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.[32]
  • 21 voted for more than one candidate.[32]
General election 2019: Cardiff North[33][34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Anna McMorrin 26,064 49.5 –0.6
Conservative Mo Ali 19,082 36.2 –5.9
Liberal Democrats Rhys Taylor 3,580 6.8 +3.5
Plaid Cymru Steffan Webb 1,606 3.0 –0.3
Brexit Party Chris Butler 1,311 2.5 N/A
Green Michael Cope 820 1.6 N/A
Independent Richard Jones 203 0.4 N/A
Rejected ballots 111
Majority 6,982 13.3 +5.3
Turnout 52,666 76.9 ―0.5
Registered electors 68,438
Labour hold Swing +2.8

Of the 111 rejected ballots:

  • 86 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.[34]
  • 22 voted for more than one candidate.[34]
  • 3 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.[34]

See also

Notes
  1. A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
  2. As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

References
  1. "Cardiff North: Usual Resident Population, 2011". Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Archived from the original on 21 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
  2. "Beyond 20/20 WDS – Table view". 2011 Electorate Figures. StatsWales. 1 December 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
  3. 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies - The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies in Wales (PDF). Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023.
  4. "BBC - Nick Robinson's Newslog: Taking The Pulse: Cardiff". www.bbc.co.uk.
  5. "Cardiff North 1950–". Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Retrieved 2 February 2015.
  6. Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "C" (part 2)
  7. Craig, F. W. S. (1971). British parliamentary election results 1950-1970 (1 ed.). Chichester: Political Reference Publications. ISBN 9780900178023. Page 554
  8. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1951.
  9. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1959.
  10. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1964.
  11. The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1970.
  12. "Politics Resources". Election February 1974. Politics Resources. 28 February 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
  13. "Politics Resources". Election October 1974. Politics Resources. 10 October 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
  14. "Politics Resources". Election 1979. Politics Resources. 3 May 1979. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
  15. "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  16. "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  17. "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  18. "Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
  19. "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  20. "BBC NEWS>VOTE 2001>Results and Constituencies>Cardiff North". Vote 2001. BBC News. 1 May 1997. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
  21. "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  22. "BBC NEWS > Cardiff North". Vote 2001. BBC News. 7 June 2001. Retrieved 22 January 2011.
  23. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  24. "Cardiff North parliamentary constituency - Election 2005" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  25. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  26. Cardiff North Archived 9 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine Cardiff County Council – candidates Cardiff North
  27. Cardiff North BBC Election – Cardiff North
  28. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  29. "Cardiff North result". Election results for Cardiff North. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  30. "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". Election 2015. BBC News. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  31. "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". Election 2017 Results. BBC. Retrieved 8 June 2017.
  32. "Results". Cardiff Council. Cardiff Council. Retrieved 12 January 2020.
  33. "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
  34. "Election results for Cardiff North". Cardiff Council. Cardiff Council. Retrieved 12 January 2020.

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