Climate change in Morocco

Climate change in Morocco is expected to significantly impact Morocco on multiple dimensions, just like for other countries in the MENA region.

A dried body of water in Agadir. Climate change will increase the frequency of drought in Morocco.

As a coastal country with hot and arid climates, environmental impacts from climate change are likely to be wide and varied. Analysis of these environmental changes on the economy of Morocco are expected to create challenges at all levels of the economy. The main effects will be felt in the agricultural systems and fisheries which employ half of the population, and account for 14% of GDP.[1] In addition, because 60% of the population and most of the industrial activity are on the coast, sea level rise is a major threat to key economic forces.[1] As of the 2019 Climate Change Performance Index, Morocco was ranked second in preparedness behind Sweden.[2]

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes
Current/past Köppen climate classification map for Morocco for 1980–2016
Predicted Köppen climate classification map for Morocco for 2071–2100

Sea level rise

60% of the population of Morocco lives on the coast, and flooding and sea level rise are expected to significantly effect these populations.[1] These effects are especially going to effect economic activities, including tourism, agriculture, and industry.[1]

According to the NOAA 2022 sea-level rise technical report, “Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland.”[3] The increase in sea-level rise will affect places such as the low terrain surrounding the Moulouya delta, a vital wetland on the eastern coast of Morocco, that is especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and the stress, flooding, erosion, and overall decimation of the area.[4] The New York Times summarizes the 2022 IPCC climate change assessment, stating that these rising sea levels could "exceed what many nations can afford," both in the sense of destroyed land and economic ramifications.[5]

Water resources

Climate variability is expected to put a number of pressures on water resources in Morocco. Projections indicate 10%-20% decreases in precipitation across the country, with the most severe in the Saharan region by 2100.[1] Additionally, climate change will reduce snowpack in the Atlas Mountains.[1] This puts pressure on water resources, already stressed by other sources such as population expansion, urban growth, industry, and tourism.[1] Furthermore, many coastal aquifers will increasingly become stressed because of coastal salinization.

Morocco experienced an unprecedented heat wave in spring 2022, with temperatures far above the seasonal average, attributed to climate change. A dry winter and a five-year trend of declining annual rainfall have contributed to severe water scarcity and adversely affected the agricultural sector. The rise in temperatures is linked to increased greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and urbanization.[6]

Imider, a water-stressed community in Morocco's southeast, faces climate change-induced water scarcity. The indigenous Amazigh people have traditionally depended on an efficient irrigation system known as 'khettara,' but rising temperatures and drought, along with phosphate and silver mining in the region, threaten this centuries-old method.[7]

Impacts on people

Agriculture
Main article: Agriculture in Morocco

The agricultural system in Morocco is especially vulnerable to climate change. Crop production is primarily (87%) from rainfed agriculture.[1] A 2016 drought resulted in 70% decreases in crop yields, and slowed the economy.[1]

Mitigation and adaptation

Renewable energy
This section is an excerpt from Renewable energy in Morocco.[edit]
Ouarzazate Solar Power Station.

As of 2019, renewable energy in Morocco covered 35% of the country’s electricity needs.[8]

Morocco has a target of sourcing more than half of its electrical energy from renewable sources by 2030 and a plan to have 2,000 MW of wind and 2,000 MW of solar power plants by 2020, looking to add 1.5 GW renewable capacity annually. These targets, alongside other climate change policy, helped Morocco be rated second most prepared country in the 2018 and 2019 Climate Change Performance Indexes.[9]

Energy policy
This section is an excerpt from Energy policy of Morocco.[edit]

Morocco's energy policy is set independently by two agencies of the government: the Office of Hydrocarbons and Mining (ONHYM)[10] which sets domestic oil policy, and the Office National de l'Electricité (ONE),[11] which sets policy with regard to electricity. The two major weaknesses of the energy policy of Morocco are the lack of coordination between these two agencies and the lack of development of domestic energy sources.

The country has some hydrocarbon reserves, mostly in natural gas reserves that have been exploited. Currently, most energy is produced through hydrocarbon thermal plants. However, government policy is on track to convert to a high renewable mix of 42% installed renewables by 2020, and 52% by 2030.[12] Renewables include hydroelectric, wind, and solar.

Government policies and legislation
Mohammed VI of Morocco speaking at the 2016 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh.

Morocco ranked second in its approach to addressing climate change in the 2018 and 2019 Climate Change Performance Index.[13][2][14] As per the 2022 CCPI, Morocco was ranked 8th amongst the 68 countries around the world with an overall score of 71.64%.[15]

The government of Morocco has a Plan Vert strategy in order to cope with climate change.[16] In this plan, the government commits to producing over half of its energy by renewables by 2030, removing subsidies of fossil fuels, committing to green employment, focusing on ocean resource management and preserving aquifers.[16]

Morocco intends to generate 52 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, with 20 percent coming from solar, 20 percent from wind, and 12 percent from hydropower.[17]

In 2023, Morocco's finance minister, Nadia Fettah Alaoui, highlighted the need to adapt the country's economy to address the escalating threat of climate change. Droughts caused by below-average rainfall linked to climate change have significantly impacted Morocco's agriculture, and the country's economy grew just 1.2% in 2022, down from 7.9% the previous year. To address the water scarcity challenge, the government is focusing on investing in water technologies and further accelerating growth sectors like car manufacturing.[18]

See also

References
  1. "Climate Risk Profile: Morocco". Climatelinks. Retrieved 2020-05-13.
  2. "MOROCCO: Ranked second worldwide in climate change control". Afrik 21. 2020-04-30. Retrieved 2020-05-29.
  3. "2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report". oceanservice.noaa.gov. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  4. Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Niazi, Saïda (2008-04-10). "Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone". Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, LOICZ: Lessons from Banda Aceh, Atlantis, and Canute. 77 (2): 206–213. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2007.09.024. ISSN 0272-7714.
  5. Plumer, Brad; Zhong, Raymond (2022-02-28). "Climate Change Is Harming the Planet Faster Than We Can Adapt, U.N. Warns". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-02-28.
  6. Nait el-Rayes, Soukina. "Dry Winters and Scorching Springs: Climate Change in Morocco". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  7. Santarsiero, Rachel (2023-06-30). "Morocco's centuries-old irrigation system under threat from climate change". Climate Home News. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  8. "Morocco Aims For 50% Renewable Energy By 2030". 22 January 2021.
  9. "MOROCCO: Ranked second worldwide in climate change control". Afrik 21. 2020-04-30. Retrieved 2020-05-29.
  10. "Home". Office of Hydrocarbons and Mining. Retrieved 2020-10-22.
  11. "Branche Electricité". Site web officiel de l'ONEE. Retrieved 2020-10-22.
  12. "MOROCCO: Ranked second worldwide in climate change control". Afrik 21. 2020-04-30. Retrieved 2020-05-29.
  13. Environment, U. N. (2018-12-20). "Morocco ranked second in Climate Change Performance Index 2018". UN Environment. Retrieved 2020-05-13.
  14. "Climate Change Performance Index 2022: Morocco maintains its rank in the top 10 worldwide – The North Africa Post".
  15. Latrech, Oumaima. "2022 Climate Change Performance Index: Morocco 5th Best Country Worldwide". Morocco World News.
  16. "5 things Morocco is doing about Climate Change". World Bank. Retrieved 2020-05-13.
  17. Falk, Thomas O. "Morocco: MENA's rare climate change success story". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  18. Saleh, Heba (2023-03-12). "Morocco must adapt to growing climate threat, warns finance minister". Financial Times. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
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