2018 Colorado gubernatorial election

The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.[1]

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Jared Polis Walker Stapleton
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Dianne Primavera Lang Sias
Popular vote 1,348,888 1,080,801
Percentage 53.4% 42.8%

Polis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Stapleton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No votes

Governor before election

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

The major party nominees were U.S. Congressman Jared Polis for the Democratic Party and State Treasurer Walker Stapleton for the Republican Party. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.[2][3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.

Democratic primary

With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for Governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former Lieutenant Governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for Governor in 2018.[4]

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Eliminated at the convention

  • Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucus results

On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many Delegates each candidate that was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. 96.83% of precincts reported and added up below results.[25]

  • Cary Kennedy (11,700; 49.2%)
  • Jared Polis (7,784; 32.7%)
  • Mike Johnston (2,086; 8.8%)
  • Noel Ginsburg (433; 1.8%), dropped out of race
  • Erik Underwood (100; 0.4%)
  • Uncommitted (1,668; 7%)

Endorsements

Jared Polis

Organizations

  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • IBEW Colorado– International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • Sierra Club
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • Victory Fund
  • Humane Society

Federal Officials

State Senators

State Representatives

County Commissioners

Mayors

City Councilors

Others

Mike Johnston
Federal Officials
Statewide Officials
Local Officials
  • Gabrielle Aragon, Former San Luis Council Member
  • Albus Brooks, Denver City Council President
  • Lisa Flores, Denver Public School Board of Education Member
  • Tracy Johnson, Academy District 20 Board of Education Member
  • Jeanne McQueeney, Eagle County Commissioner[31]
  • Theresa Peña, Denver Public Schools Former Board of Education Member[32]
  • Christina Rinderle, Former Durango Mayor
  • Wellington Webb, Former Mayor of Denver[30]
Organizations
Public Figures
Cary Kennedy
Federal Officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Donna Lynne
State legislators
  • Janet Buckner, [State Representative]
  • JoAnn Ginal, [State Representative]
  • Lucia Guzman,[State Senator]
  • Jean Dubofsky, [former state Supreme Court Justice]
Local officials
  • Marguerite Salazar, [Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies executive director]
  • Tamra Ward, [Denver Zoo chief external relations officer]
  • Leanna Clark, [Vice chancellor for the University of Colorado Denver]
  • Jacque Montgomery, [Gov. John Hickenlooper’s spokeswoman]
  • Kathy Maloney Green, [Gov. John Hickenlooper’s former spokeswoman]
Ed Perlmutter (withdrawn)

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Johnston
Cary
Kennedy
Donna
Lynne
Jared
Polis
Other Undecided
Strategies 360 May 29 – June 6, 2018 387 ± 5.0% 12% 23% 2% 34% 29%
Magellan Strategies (R) May 30–31, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 9% 18% 3% 31% 39%
TargetPoint/GQR March 2018 18% 18% 12% 52%
Magellan Strategies (R) March 20–23, 2018 410 ± 4.8% 8% 23% 5% 27% 1% 36%
University of Colorado Boulder November 9–15, 2017 357 ± 3.5% 4% 6% 4% 24% 2%[43] 58%

Results

Results by county:
  Polis
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kennedy
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Johnston
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jared Polis 282,725 44.46
Democratic Cary Kennedy 157,098 24.71
Democratic Mike Johnston 149,717 23.55
Democratic Donna Lynne 46,316 7.28
Total votes 635,856 100.0

Republican primary

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Eliminated at the convention

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucus results

Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from Key Counties.[66]

Pueblo County

Douglas County

Endorsements

George Brauchler (withdrawn)
Celebrities
Tom Tancredo (withdrawn)
Political Commentators

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cynthia
Coffman
Greg
Lopez
Victor
Mitchell
Doug
Robinson
Walker
Stapleton
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R) June 6–7, 2018 593 ± 4.0% 10% 23% 4% 36% 27%
TargetPoint/GQR March 2018 7% 15% 16% 62%
Magellan Strategies (R) February 26–27, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 13% 5% 8% 26% 9% 39%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
George
Brauchler
Cynthia
Coffman
Victor
Mitchell
Doug
Robinson
Walker
Stapleton
Tom
Tancredo
Undecided
University of Colorado Boulder November 9–15, 2017 250 ± 3.5% 4% 6% 1% 1% 8% 25% 54%
Braynard Group (R) September 26–28, 2017 400 ± 3.2% 7% 6% 1% 0.3% 8.5% 22% 54%

Results

Results by county:
  Stapleton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Mitchell
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Walker Stapleton 239,415 47.66
Republican Victor Mitchell 151,365 30.13
Republican Greg Lopez 66,330 13.20
Republican Doug Robinson 45,245 9.01
Total votes 502,355 100.0

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Dates Location Polis Stapleton Link
October 6, 2018 Grand Junction, Colorado Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[74] Lean D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[75] Lean D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[76] Likely D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[77] Lean D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[79] Lean D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[80] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[81][lower-alpha 1] Lean D November 5, 2018
Politico[82] Lean D November 5, 2018
Governing[83] Lean D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Jared Polis (D)

Organizations

  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • IBEW Colorado– International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • Sierra Club
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • Victory Fund
  • Humane Society

Federal Officials

State Officials

State Senators

State Representatives

County Commissioners

Mayors

City Councilors

Others

Walker Stapleton (R)
Presidents of the United States
Vice Presidents of the United States

Federal Officials

State Officials

State Senators
State Representatives
Local officials

Mayors

District attorneys
  • Pete Weir (1st Judicial District)[115]
  • Dan May (4th Judicial District)[115]
  • Cliff Riedel (8th Judicial District)[115]
  • Jeff Cheney (9th Judicial District)[115]
  • Molly Chilson (11th Judicial District)[115]
  • Brittny Lewton (13th Judicial District)[115]
  • Brett Barkey (14th Judicial District)[115]
  • Josh Vogel (15th Judicial District)[115]
  • Jim Bullock (16th Judicial District)[115]
  • Michael J. Rourke (19th Judicial District)[115]
  • Dan Rubinstein (21st Judicial District)[115]
Sheriffs
Others
  • Doug Robinson, businessman[116]
  • Nick Rogers, president of the Denver Police Protective Association[115]
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis
(D)
Walker
Stapleton
(R)
Scott
Helker
(L)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies October 29–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% 3% 1%[127] 11%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns October 25–30, 2018 517 ± 4.3% 50% 42% 4% 1%[127] 4%
University of Colorado/YouGov October 12–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 54% 42% 3% 2%
Magellan Strategies October 8–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 40% 4% 0%[128] 9%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies September 18–20, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 40% 1% 0%[128] 11%
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS August 15 – September 19, 2018 1,585 44% 33% 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party) June 27–28, 2018 608 47% 40% 13%
Strategies 360 May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 37% 3% 18%
Hypothetical polling
with Cary Kennedy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cary
Kennedy (D)
Walker
Stapleton (R)
Other Undecided
Strategies 360 May 23 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 38% 4% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA) May 8–10, 2018 883 ± 3.3% 52% 37% 11%
with Tom Tancredo
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 46% 38% 16%
Braynard Group (R) September 26–28, 2017 1,000 ± 3.2% 25% 25% 3% 47%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cary
Kennedy (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 45% 38% 17%
Keating Research (D) November 9–13, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 50% 34% 3% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Johnston (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 43% 39% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donna
Lynne (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017 770 ± 3.5% 43% 38% 19%

Results

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election[129]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jared Polis 1,348,888 53.42% +4.12%
Republican Walker Stapleton 1,080,801 42.80% -3.15%
Libertarian Scott Helker 69,519 2.75% +0.81%
Unity Bill Hammons 25,854 1.02%
Majority 268,087 10.62% +7.27%
Turnout 2,525,062
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts.[130]

District Stapleton Polis Representative
1st 23.7% 73.05% Diana DeGette
2nd 34.48% 66.42% Joe Neguse
3rd 49.96% 46.26% Scott Tipton
4th 57.67% 38.11% Ken Buck
5th 56.64% 38.97% Doug Lamborn
6th 42.36% 54.29% Jason Crow
7th 38.38% 57.03% Ed Perlmutter

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  102. Donald Trump. "Walker Stapleton is running as the highly respected Republican Candidate for Governor of the Great State of Colorado. His credentials and talents are impeccable. He has my complete and total Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018.
  103. Joe St. George (October 19, 2018). "Vice President Pence speaks on Stapleton, missing journalist during Denver visit". Fox 31.
  104. Joe St. George (April 12, 2018). "Congressman Ken Buck endorses Walker Stapleton in governor's race". kdvr.com.
  105. "Congressman Mike Coffman Supports Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  106. "Senator Cory Gardner Endorses Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  107. "COLORADO CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS STAND UNITED BEHIND STAPLETON-SIAS TICKET". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on July 13, 2018. Retrieved July 13, 2018.
  108. Luning, Ernest (April 11, 2018). "Tancredo endorses Stapleton in governor's race". Colorado Politics.
  109. "Congressman Scott Tipton Endorses Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  110. @JebBush (August 31, 2018). "Check out @WalkerStapleton's education agenda for Colorado #edreform" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  111. "Colorado Republican Leaders Grantham and Neville Back Walker Stapleton". Stapleton for Colorado. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  112. "Victor Mitchell Puts Support Behind Walker Stapleton". KCNC-TV.
  113. Luning, Ernst (March 5, 2018). "More than 50 county commissioners endorse Republican gubernatorial candidate Walker Stapleton". Colorado Politics. Retrieved March 27, 2018.
  114. @cologop (June 28, 2018). "Victor Mitchell, Greg Lopez, and Doug Robinson gave Walker Stapleton their unequivocal support in Arapahoe County t…" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  115. "Stapleton wins endorsements from Republican district attorneys, sheriffs". Colorado Springs Gazette. June 11, 2018.
  116. @cologop (June 28, 2018). "In Arapahoe County, Doug Robinson offered ⁦@WalkerStapleton⁩ not only his unqualified support but a max contributio…" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  117. Luning, Ernst (February 13, 2018). "Associated Builders and Contractors endorses Republican Walker Stapleton for governor". Colorado Politics. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
  118. "AFP-Colorado Endorses Walker Stapleton for Governor". Americans for Prosperity. September 12, 2018.
  119. Bunch, Joey (October 3, 2018). "Colorado Farm Bureau endorses Stapleton for governor". Colorado Politics.
  120. "NFIB Endorses Stapleton for Governor". NFIB. October 9, 2018.
  121. Bunch, Joey (October 11, 2018). "Colorado auto dealers make first-ever endorsement: Walker Stapleton". Colorado Politics.
  122. "Vote Stapleton for governor". Pueblo Chieftain. October 14, 2018.
  123. "EDITORIAL: Gazette election endorsements 2018: Candidates". Colorado Springs Gazette. October 14, 2018.
  124. "Our endorsements". Durango Herald. October 15, 2018.
  125. "Walker Stapleton for governor". Grand Junction Daily Sentinel. October 21, 2018.
  126. "Tribune Endorsement: Walker Stapleton is our pick for governor, but he must learn from office's current occupant". The Greeley Tribune. October 21, 2018.
  127. Bill Hammons (U) with 1%
  128. Bill Hammons (U) with 0%
  129. Williams, Wayne W. (December 6, 2018). Statewide Abstract of Votes Cast for the November 6, 2018 General Election (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.
  130. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
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