Hurricane Olaf (2021)

Hurricane Olaf was a Category 2 Pacific hurricane that struck the Baja California Peninsula in September 2021. The fifteenth named storm and sixth hurricane of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season, the cyclone formed from an area of low pressure that developed off the southwestern coast of Mexico on September 5, 2021. The disturbance developed within a favorable environment, acquiring more convection and a closed surface circulation. The disturbance developed into Tropical Depression Fifteen-E by 18:00 UTC[lower-alpha 1] on September 7. The depression strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Olaf at 12:00 UTC the next day. Olaf quickly strengthened as it moved to the north-northwest, and was upgraded to a hurricane 24 hours after being named. Hurricane Olaf continued to intensify and reached peak intensity while its center was just offshore the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 975 mbar (28.8 inHg). Just after reaching peak intensity, the hurricane made landfall near San José del Cabo. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California Peninsula caused Olaf to quickly weaken. It was downgraded to a tropical storm at 12:00 UTC on September 10. The system became devoid of convection later that day and degenerated to a remnant low by 06:00 UTC on September 11.

Hurricane Olaf
Hurricane Olaf near peak intensity approaching Baja California Sur on September 9
Meteorological history
FormedSeptember 7, 2021
Remnant lowSeptember 11, 2021
DissipatedSeptember 12, 2021
Category 2 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds105 mph (165 km/h)
Lowest pressure975 mbar (hPa); 28.79 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities1 total
Damage$10 million
Areas affectedWestern Mexico, Baja California Peninsula
IBTrACS / [1]
Part of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season

The precursor disturbance to Olaf caused flooding in the southwestern Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. The storm triggered school, port, and COVID-19 vaccination-site closures in Baja California Sur as it approached the peninsula. Severe rainfall, flooding, mudslides, uprooted trees and damage to power lines and hotels affected the state as the hurricane made landfall and moved over the peninsula. Total damage from Olaf was estimated at US$10 million,[lower-alpha 2] and one person died due to a mudslide produced by the storm in Jalisco.

Meteorological history
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On September 3 at 00:00 UTC, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the potential for an area of low pressure to develop off of the southwest coast of Mexico.[2] The area eventually developed as predicted around 18:00 UTC on September 5.[3] Over the next few days, conditions progressively got more conductive as the disturbance better organized, producing a large area of gradually organizing thunderstorms while it progressively became better defined.[4][5] The disturbance then moved north-northwest and acquired a low-level circulation, prompting its designation as a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on September 8.[6][7] The depression's inner-core convection was disheveled after formation, but the cyclone organized and became better defined throughout the day.[8] At 15:00 UTC on the same day, the cyclone was upgraded to a tropical storm and was given the name Olaf.[9] Moving northwestward at a slow pace, Olaf developed banding features and good outflow within very favorable environmental conditions for intensification, featuring warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and low amounts of vertical wind shear.[10] On September 9, the storm developed a well-defined eye and became a Category 1 hurricane around 15:00 UTC.[11]

Olaf intensified at an even quicker rate as it neared to southwestern coast of the Baja California Peninsula, developing a symmetrical eyewall as its winds increased by 20 mph in just six hours.[12] At 03:00 UTC on September 10, Olaf was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane; it reached peak intensity at this time with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 968 millibars (28.6 inHg). Twenty minutes later, the storm made landfall very near San José del Cabo.[13][14] Olaf's center briefly crossed the peninsula before re-emerging back over water, weakening back to Category 1 status in the process.[15] Shortly after emerging back over water, the organization of Olaf collapsed, including its eye and eyewall, and it was downgraded to a tropical storm at 15:00 UTC on September 10.[16] Gradually moving westward away from land, Olaf continued to rapidly weaken, with its low-level center becoming exposed and devoid of any deep convection by 21:00 UTC.[17] By 09:00 UTC on September 11, Olaf had been devoid of any organized deep convection for 18 hours, and was therefore designated a remnant low as it turned back to the southwest.[18]

Preparations
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E shortly after formation, on September 8.

At 03:00 UTC on September 8, tropical storm watches were issued for southern portions of Baja California Sur.[19] These were extended northward at 09:00 UTC before tropical storm warnings were issued for the same areas.[20] These remained until 09:00 UTC on September 9, when hurricane warnings were issued and tropical storm warnings were extended northward.[21] Hurricane and tropical storm warnings were once again extended northward twelve hours later at 21:00 UTC, six hours before landfall.[22] A red alert was issued statewide.[23]

Up to 6 in (150 mm) of rainfall was anticipated for the states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Nayarit as Hurricane Olaf approached, along with potential surf of up to 23 ft (7.0 m).[24] Before landfall, ports and schools were closed and residents living in flood zones were urged to evacuate.[25] COVID-19 vaccinations were suspended and 20,000 tourists fled to hotels.[26] 20 temporary shelters were set up in Baja California Sur for residents with homes in high-risk areas of impact.[27] Classes in Cabo San Lucas were suspended on September 10.[28]

Impact

Moisture associated with Olaf resulted in heavy rains across Jalisco, which resulted in flooding. This flooding resulted in a collapse of a trailer near Mexican Federal Highway 80, which buried a man.[29] Heavy rains from both Hurricane Nora and Olaf prompted the closure of beaches in Nayarit.[30]

The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) of Mexico reported that over 191,000 people lost electricity at the height of the storm.[27] By September 12, with the help of 678 electrical workers, 110 cranes, 212 vehicles and 2 helicopters, power had been restored to 94%.[31] Heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves buffeted the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula as Olaf hugged it and later made landfall.[32][33] Hotels received minor damage, and some motorists were trapped in their vehicles. Fallen trees were also reported.[34] Thirty-seven airline flights were cancelled.[35] Damage was estimated at 200 million pesos (US$10 million) in the municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz.[36][1]

See also

Notes
  1. All times are in Coordinated Universal Time, unless otherwise noted
  2. All values are in USD unless otherwise noted.

References
  1. Andy S. Latto (January 10, 2022). Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Olaf (PDF) (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  2. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 2, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  3. Latto, Andrew (September 5, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  4. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 6, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 9, 2021.
  5. Latto, Andrew (September 6, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  6. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 7, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  7. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 7, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  8. Berg, Robbie (September 8, 2021). Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  9. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 8, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 8, 2021.
  10. Latto, Andrew (September 8, 2021). Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  11. Zelinsky, David (September 9, 2021). Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 8 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  12. Beven, Jack (September 9, 2021). Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  13. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 9, 2021). Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  14. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 9, 2021). Hurricane Olaf Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  15. Berg, Robbie (September 10, 2021). Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  16. Reinhart, Brad (September 10, 2021). Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  17. Reinhart, Brad (September 10, 2021). Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 13 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  18. Berg, Robbie (September 11, 2021). Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  19. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 7, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  20. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 8, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  21. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 9, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  22. Papin, Philippe; Beven, Jack (September 9, 2021). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  23. Leon, Raymundo (September 9, 2021). "Tormenta 'Olaf' provocará lluvias torrenciales en BCS, alerta SMN". La Jornada. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  24. "Actividad ciclónica en el océano Pacifico en su región nororiental". 2021-09-09. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  25. "Hurricane Olaf makes landfall in Mexico near tourist area". NBC News. 2021-09-09. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  26. "Hurricane Olaf hits Mexico's Los Cabos resorts at Category 2". CNBC. 2021-09-09. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  27. "Olaf se debilita a tormenta tropical, tras azotar Baja California Sur con lluvias y vientos" (in Spanish). 2021-09-10. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  28. "SRE suspende citas para trámite de pasaporte en BCS por 'Olaf'". La Jornada. September 11, 2021. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  29. "Estilo de vida Lluvias provocadas por "Olaf" causan derrumbe y un muerto en Jalisco". Latinus. September 11, 2021. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  30. Santos, Javier (September 11, 2021). "Por 'Olaf', cierran accesos a playas en Nayarit". La Jornada. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  31. "CFE restable al 94% la energía en BCS tras paso de Olaf". Adn40. September 12, 2021. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  32. "'Olaf' se degrada a tormenta tropical en Baja California Sur: trayectoria EN VIVO" (in Spanish). 2021-09-10. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  33. "Huracán Olaf toca tierra en Baja California" (in Spanish). 2021-09-10. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  34. "20,000 Tourists Stuck in Hotels As Hurricane Olaf Hits Baja California". Newsweek. 2021-09-10. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  35. "Hurricane Olaf nears Mexico's Los Cabos resorts". Associated Press. 2021-09-10. Retrieved 2021-09-10.
  36. "Huracán "Olaf" dejó daños estimados en 200 millones de pesos en BCS". El Heraldo de Mexico. September 21, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
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