Hurricane Otis

Hurricane Otis was a compact but very powerful and devastating tropical cyclone which made landfall in October 2023 near Acapulco as a Category 5 hurricane. Otis was the first Pacific hurricane to make landfall at Category 5 intensity and surpassed Hurricane Patricia as the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record.

For other storms of the same name, see List of storms named Otis.

Hurricane Otis
Otis near peak intensity off the coast of Guerrero early on October 25
Meteorological history
FormedOctober 22, 2023
DissipatedOctober 25, 2023
Category 5 hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds165 mph (270 km/h)
Lowest pressure923 mbar (hPa); 27.26 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities≥27
Missing≥4
DamageUnknown
Areas affectedSouthern Mexico
Part of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season

The fifteenth tropical storm, tenth hurricane, eighth major hurricane,[nb 1] and second Category 5 hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season, Otis originated from a disturbance several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Initially forecast to only be a weak tropical storm at peak intensity, Otis instead underwent explosive intensification to reach peak winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and made landfall at peak intensity. Once inland, the hurricane rapidly weakened, before dissipating the following day. The hurricane caused at least 27 deaths and left at least 4 missing.

Making landfall just west of Acapulco, Otis's powerful winds damaged many of the buildings in the city. Landslides occurred, and flooding resulted from continuous heavy rain. Communication was heavily cut off, initially leaving information about the hurricane's impact largely unknown. Many radio stations were also damaged. In the aftermath, the city had no drinking water, and the government of Guerrero mobilized thousands of members of the military to aid survivors.

Meteorological history
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) first noted on October 15 that an area of low pressure was expected to form south of Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of the week.[2] A broad low-pressure area formed several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on October 18 and was generating disorganized thunderstorms.[3] The system increased in organization over the next few days, becoming a tropical depression at 15:00 UTC on October 22. At that time, the depression had strong, increasing convective activity near its well-defined center.[4] Six hours later, the depression became a tropical storm and received the name Otis following a slight increase in organization. The nascent storm was moving slowly northward as it was located within a light steering flow between a low-pressure trough to its northwest and a high-pressure ridge to its northeast.[5] Overnight, deep convection pulsed on the northwestern portion of the circulation with the center becoming more embedded in the colder cloud tops.[6] However, this convective trend plateaued in the early hours of October 23 due to easterly wind shear, which hindered further organization and left the center partially exposed.[7] By 03:00 UTC on October 24, microwave satellite imagery depicted a low-level ring structure in the 37 GHz channel, despite the overall sheared appearance of the system. The NHC noted the imagery as possible evidence for an imminent rapid intensification event.[8]

By the morning of October 24, Otis was organizing with an uptick in convective vigor and expansion of cirrus outflow. Explosive intensification commenced, enabled by lessening of southeasterly wind shear and warm ocean surface temperatures of 29–31 °C (84–88 °F).[9] On visible satellite imagery an eye became apparent, and Otis reached Category 3 status by 21:00 UTC October 24. This upgrade was based on measurements by a Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter mission. These measurements revealed that Otis was considerably stronger than the satellite imagery-based Dvorak technique suggested and that Otis was undergoing explosive intensification, with the central surface pressure dropping 10 millibars (0.30 inHg) between passes.[10] The NHC continued to observe increasing organization of the hurricane on satellite imagery throughout the day, with no signs of the intensification abating. At 03:00 UTC October 25, the NHC upgraded Otis to a Category 5 hurricane. In 24 hours, Otis had intensified from a 50 mph (85 km/h) tropical storm to a 160 mph (260 km/h) Category 5 hurricane, an increase of 110 mph (175 km/h), second only to Hurricane Patricia as the largest 24-hour increase on record in the Eastern Pacific. Despite its extreme intensity, Otis was a relatively small hurricane with gale force winds extending outwards only up to 70 miles (110 km) from its center.[11]

Landfalling Pacific hurricanes with a wind speed of 130 mph (215 km/h) or higher
Hurricane Season Wind speed Ref.
Otis 2023 165 mph (270 km/h) [12]
Patricia 2015 150 mph (240 km/h) [13]
Madeline 1976 145 mph (230 km/h) [14]
Iniki 1992 [15]
Twelve 1957 140 mph (220 km/h) [16]
"Mexico" 1959 [16]
Kenna 2002 [17]
Lidia 2023 [18]

After becoming a Category 5 hurricane, Otis strengthened slightly more, and at 06:25 UTC on October 25, the hurricane made landfall near Acapulco at peak intensity, with winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and a central pressure of 923 mb (27.26 inHg),[19] becoming the first Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall at Category 5 intensity, thus surpassing Patricia as the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane.[20] Overall, it was the fourth-strongest landfalling Mexican hurricane by sustained wind speed, behind the following Atlantic hurricanes, each with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h): Janet, in 1955; Anita, in 1977; and Dean, in 2007. [21] Otis quickly weakened after landfall, weakening to a tropical storm by 18:00 UTC[22] and dissipating within the following three hours.[23]

Forecast errors

Otis's peak intensity and final track were well beyond what had been forecast by the NHC. When the tropical cyclone formed, three days before its landfall, the track forecast did not show Otis coming ashore, rather curving to the west as a weak tropical storm.[4] Late on October 23, just 24 hours before the hurricane reached Category 5 intensity, the NHC forecast a peak intensity of only 70 mph (110 km/h).[8] The forecast track had shifted to showing Otis making landfall, but even only 16 hours before landfall, the NHC predicted that Otis would peak as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds. This forecast also had Otis making landfall between 6:00 am and 6:00 pm local time (12:00 UTC and 00:00 UTC the following day) on October 25, nearly a day after it would actually come inland. Numerical weather prediction models failed to capture the magnitude of explosive intensification that occurred, in part due to a dearth of data. Only a single Hurricane Hunters flight was flown and there is no Doppler weather radar in the landfall area. Some model runs did not predict landfall at all.[24]

Preparations
Animated satellite view of Otis
Enhanced infrared imagery of Otis making landfall near Acapulco, Guerrero, on October 25

In response to the approach of Hurricane Otis, the government of Guerrero opened 396 shelters to accommodate residents displaced by the heavy wind and storm surge damage. Mexico's army and navy sent 8,000 troops to support aid and rescue operations. Authorities in Guerrero closed Acapulco's main port.[25] Schools across Guerrero were to be closed ahead of Otis' anticipated landfall.[26] All flights in and out of Acapulco International Airport were cancelled.[27][28][29]

Impact

A weather station on Isla de La Roqueta offshore western Acapulco recorded a maximum wind gust of 135 mph (217 km/h) as the eyewall moved across the city. Peak sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) were also reported by the station.[24][30] More than 500,000 customers lost power across the state,[31] although service was quickly restored to 200,000. About 80% of all hotels in Acapulco sustained damage,[32] including reports of flooding and collapsed ceilings inside hotels.[33][34][35] Several buildings were also heavily damaged or collapsed.[36] Eighteen radio stations in Acapulco were downed, and communication was cut off in the city.[37] The city also lost access to drinking water.[38] A shopping center in Acapulco was destroyed, and a section of a highway leading into the city was closed after a landslide.[39][40]

Several airlines were impacted by Otis, with service on Aeroméxico, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus affected and suspended at Acapulco and Zihuatanejo.[41] Acapulco International Airport, which was closed to all flights, was inaccessible.[42] Additionally, the Pie de la Cuesta Air Force Base near Acapulco was damaged, which made it difficult for rescue operations.[35][43] Otis's passage knocked offline a significant part of the seismic network in Guerrero owned by SkyAlert, an earthquake warning app used widely in Mexico,[41] as well as the SASMEX Network, another network owned by CIRES, responsible of broadcasting alerts through public speakers and radio signals. Twenty-seven sensors were affected throughout Guerrero and parts of neighboring states Michoacán and Oaxaca, as well as two broadcast towers in the cities of Acapulco and Chilpancingo, hindering the ability to notify major cities both close and farther away prone to damage in case an earthquake occurs along the coasts of those three states.[44] Tourism authorities considered Otis the worst hurricane to hit Acapulco, with its impact more severe than both Hurricane Pauline and Hurricane Manuel.[45] Overall, at least 27 people were killed and a further four left missing.[46][47] Losses were estimated at US$15 billion by the natural disaster risk analysis firm Enki Research,[48][49] and at more than US$10 billion by global reinsurance firm Gallagher Re. Hurricane Wilma is Mexico's most expensive weather disaster ever recorded, at US$7.5 billion.[50]

Aftermath

The government of Guerrero mobilized 30 to 40 trucks to transport displaced tourists to shelter. The federal government mobilized 10,000 members of the military to assist in recovery efforts.[32] The congressional bloc of Morena offered 10 million pesos in aid.[51] With Mexican government resources worth approximately US$1.7 billion, the government believed it had the economic resources necessary to repair the damage to Guerrero.[52] Despite the recovery efforts, more than two days after Otis made landfall 250,000 households remained without power, and much of the city had little or no access to food or clean water.[53]

See also
  • Hurricane Bridget (1971) – a Category 2 hurricane which is considered to be one of the worst hurricanes to hit Acapulco.
  • Hurricane David (1979) – a destructive Atlantic hurricane that directly impacted Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, as a Category 5 hurricane.
  • Hurricane Andrew (1992) – a small Category 5 Atlantic hurricane which struck the Miami metropolitan area with nearly the same intensity.
  • Typhoon Angela (1995) – a Pacific typhoon which crossed the southern portion of Metropolitan Manila as a Category 5-equivalent typhoon.
  • Hurricane Pauline (1997) – a Category 4 hurricane that severely impacted Acapulco and killed more than 300 people.
  • Hurricane Kenna (2002) – another Category 5 hurricane that made landfall further northwest in Mexico and which was also initially forecast to only be a weak tropical storm at peak intensity
  • Hurricane Manuel (2013) – a destructive Category 1 hurricane which became the costliest Pacific hurricane on record after causing widespread damage in Acapulco and its surrounding areas.

Notes
  1. A major hurricane is one that ranks at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale.[1]

References
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