Hurricane Lidia (2023)

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

Map key

Saffir–Simpson scale

  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown

Storm type

Tropical cyclone

Subtropical cyclone

Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

As early as September 28, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipated that a low pressure area would form south of Mexico, assessing a 20% chance of tropical cyclogenesis within seven days.[1] By two days later, the NHC increased the potential for development to 70% – this was related to a tropical wave south of Mexico producing an area of thunderstorms, known as convection.[2] On October 2, the convection became more concentrated, supported by favorable environmental conditions, and a low pressure area developed.[3][4] At 09:00 UTC on October 3, the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Lidia, due to sufficient organization of the weather system. By that time, the thunderstorms had organized into curved rainbands, and the low pressure area had evolved into a well-defined circulation producing sustained winds of at least 40 mph (65 km/h).[5]

Satellite imagery of Lidia making landfall in western Mexico

Upon its formation, Lidia was expected to intensify to hurricane status within five days, due to sea surface temperatures of around 86 °F (30 °C) and ample moisture.[5] However, the presence of easterly wind shear was an early deterring factor, which displaced the convection from the center.[6] The thunderstorms continued to pulse over the center as Lidia moved north-northwestward, a path steered by a ridge over Mexico. Despite the wind shear, Lidia was able to continue to intensify.[7] By October 6, the storm turned toward the west, as the circulation become more closely aligned with the deepest convection, a sign of a maturing tropical cyclone.[8] Later that day, the wind shear nearly exposed the center from the thunderstorms, although the intensity had increased to just below hurricane-force, or winds of 74 mph (118 km/h). By that time, hurricane models had conflicting simulations for the future of Lidia. In the storm's immediate future, there was a consensus that a mid-latitude trough would steer the storm northward. Some computer models anticipated that the wind shear would remain strong enough to weaken the storm, while others predicted that Lidia would intensify as it moved toward the western coast of Mexico.[9]

On October 7, Lidia began its anticipated turn to the north. With the wind shear continuing to affect, there was still uncertainty in the storm's future. That day, the NHC forecast included a hurricane landfall in the Mexican state of Nayarit.[10] By October 8, Lidia's structure had become more organized, with the center under the deepest convection, and a mid-level eye forming.[11] The lower- and mid-level circulations were displaced, while the intrusion of drier air prevented more immediate intensification.[12][13] On October 9, Lidia began its turn to the northeast, influenced by the approaching mid-level trough, which provided more favorable upper-level support. Concurrently, the convection increased over the center, signaling the start of an intensifying trend, which the NHC expected would continue up to the coast.[14]

Late on October 9, the Hurricane Hunters flew into Lidia, observing a developing inner core of the cyclone, with a central barometric pressure of 985 mbar (29.1 inHg).[15] Early on October 10, the storm intensified into a hurricane while located about 365 mi (590 km) southwest of Puerto Vallarta.[16] As Lidia approached the Mexican coast, it developed an eyewall as it intensified into a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.[17] It rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane by 21:30 UTC on October 10,[18] making landfall two hours later near Las Peñitas in the Mexican state of Jalisco, just south of Puerto Vallarta, with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). By that time, the eyewall was clearing out on satellite imagery. Once over land, Lidia rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain of western Mexico. The eye quickly degraded and the convection diminished.[19] By 09:00 UTC on October 11, the storm lost its well-defined center, less than ten hours after landfall. Lidia's remnants continued northeastward across northern Mexico, producing a large area of rainfall.[20]

Schools were closed across 23 municipalities in Mexico ahead of Lidia's anticipated landfall.[28] Several businesses in the resort town of Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco shut down and boarded up windows and doors in advance of the storm. Licenciado Gustavo Díaz Ordaz International Airport was also closed from October 10-11 as Lidia approached the area. 6,000 Mexican armed forces members were deployed to Nayarit and Jalisco to assist residents in vulnerable areas.[29] 23 temporary storm shelters were opened in Jalisco. Classes along much of the state's coastal municipalities were cancelled due to the combined threat of Lidia and the more southerly-tracking Tropical Storm Max, which made landfall in Guerrero less than two days prior.[30]

Lidia produced intense rainfall and flash flooding as it moved onshore and inland over Jalisco. One person was killed in Punta Mita after strong winds caused by Lidia downed a tree on a van while another drowned in a swollen river.[31] 12 flights were cancelled at Puerto Vallarta Airport, and the airport was closed on October 11.[32] Numerous trees were uprooted, some of which blocked Federal Highway 200, and 136 people were in shelters.[33] 23 temporary shelters were opened, and soldiers were deployed in Nayarit to respond to rescues.[28] Several rivers and streams overflowed, which inundated houses and forced the closure of a hospital in Autlán de Navarro.[34]

The remnant moisture of Lidia and Max combined with a frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico and contributed to beneficial rainfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States, which was suffering from drought conditions.[35]

• Weather of 2023
• Tropical cyclones in 2023
• Timeline of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season
• List of Category 4 Pacific hurricanes
• Other tropical cyclones named Lidia
• Hurricane Madeline (1976)
• Hurricane Lane (2006)
• Hurricane Patricia (2015)
• Hurricane Willa (2018)
• Hurricane Otis (2023)