2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term,[1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[2]

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.
2018 Idaho gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Brad Little Paulette Jordan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 361,661 231,081
Percentage 59.8% 38.2%
Little:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Jordan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Butch Otter
Republican

 Elected Governor

Brad Little
Republican

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Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.[3]

Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes). The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Tommy Ahlquist
U.S. Governors (current and former)
Republican National Committee members
Mayors
Individuals
Celebrities
Raúl Labrador
U.S. Senators
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Political Action Committees
  • Protect Freedom PAC [20]
Trade Associations
  • Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC) [26]
Organizations
  • Idaho Chooses Life[27]
  • Family Policy Alliance of Idaho[28]
Brad Little
U.S. Governors (current and former)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tommy
Ahlquist		 Raul
Labrador		 Brad
Little		 Lisa
Marie		 Lawrence
Wasden*		 Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates February 26 – March 15, 2018 – – 21% 25% 17% – – 6% 31%
Dan Jones & Associates November 8–15, 2017 619 ± 3.9% 14% 17% 21% 4% 4% 5% 36%
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) Archived December 1, 2017, at the Wayback Machine October 11–12, 2017 714 ± 3.7% 21% 37% 23% – – – 19%

*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Results
Results by county:
Little
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Labrador
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ahlquist
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brad Little 72,518 37.3
Republican Raúl Labrador 63,460 32.6
Republican Tommy Ahlquist 50,977 26.2
Republican Lisa Marie 3,390 1.7
Republican Steve Pankey 2,701 1.4
Republican Harley Brown 874 0.4
Republican Dalton Cannady 528 0.3
Total votes 194,448 100.0

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
A. J. Balukoff
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Statewide officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)
Local and municipal officials (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations
Paulette Jordan
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Organizations

Results
Results by county:
Jordan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Jordan/Balukoff tie
  •   40–50%
Balukoff
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Paulette Jordan 38,483 58.4
Democratic A.J. Balukoff 26,403 40.1
Democratic Peter Dill 964 1.5
Total votes 65,850 100.0

Independents

Declared
  • Adam Phillips[9]
  • Michael Richardson[5]
  • John Thomas Wiechec[9]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[79] Safe R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[80] Safe R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[81] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[82] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[84] Safe R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[85] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[86][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[87] Safe R November 5, 2018
Governing[88] Safe R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates
Dates Location Little Jordan Link
October 15, 2018 Boise, Idaho Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Brad
Little (R)		 Paulette
Jordan (D)		 Bev
Boeck (L)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 838 – 55% 39% 3% 2%[89] –
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) August 2–5, 2018 826 ± 3.2% 36% 28% – 5% 31%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) July 12–15, 2018 1,061 ± 2.8% 38% 28% – 7% 26%
Dan Jones & Associates Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 22 – July 9, 2018 606 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 5% 8%[90] 13%

Results
Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Brad Little 361,661 59.76% +6.24%
Democratic Paulette Jordan 231,081 38.19% -0.36%
Libertarian Bev "Angel" Boeck 6,551 1.08% -2.99%
Constitution Walter L. Bayes 5,787 0.96% -0.23%
Independent Lisa Marie (write-in) 51 0.0% N/A
Total votes 605,131 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References
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  89. Walter Bayes with 2%
  90. Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%
Debates
Official campaign websites
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