Next Israeli legislative election

After the 36th government lost its majority, the 2022 snap election was called. This resulted in the Netanyahu bloc gaining a majority,[1] and a government was successfully negotiated between Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, Religious Zionist Party, United Torah Judaism and Shas. The coalition was sworn in on 29 December 2022.[2][3]

With this new government, Netanyahu returned to the premiership, having previously been out of that office since the anti-Netanyahu bloc won a majority in the 2021 election and formed a government without Netanyahu’s Likud.

Five members of Blue and White (Benny Gantz, Gadi Eizenkot, Gideon Sa'ar, Hili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton), joined the government in October 2023 following the outbreak of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war.[4]

The 120 seats in the Knesset are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The electoral threshold for the election is 3.25%.[5]

Two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement that allows them to compete for leftover seats as if they were running together on the same list. The Bader–Ofer method slightly favours larger lists, meaning that alliances are more likely to receive leftover seats than parties would be individually. If the alliance receives leftover seats, the Bader–Ofer calculation is applied privately, to determine how the seats are divided among the two allied lists.[6]

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using a 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Local regression of polls conducted

• List of next general elections