2023 Madeiran regional election
Regional elections were held in Madeira on 24 September 2023,[1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.
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47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira 24 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 53.3% 2.2 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The incumbent president, Miguel Albuquerque from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, and defended the dominance of the Social Democratic Party in the islands since 1976. The PSD and CDS–PP contested the election in a joint coalition.[2]
The "We are Madeira" coalition, between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), won the election with 43% of the votes but, despite polling predictions, failed to hold on to their majority and won 23 seats, one short of a majority. On election night, Miguel Albuquerque announced he would present a "parliamentary majority solution" very shortly, but didn't give much details nor said with whom, although he refused any talks with CHEGA.[3]
The Socialist Party (PS) suffered a big fall in support gathering just 21% of the votes and 11 seats, compared with their best results ever in 2019, almost 36% and 19 seats. Unlike 2019, it failed to win a single parish and municipality.[4] Together for the People (JPP) had their best showing ever, winning 11% of the votes and 5 seats, two more compared with 2019.[5]
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) was able to hold on to their sole seat and even increased their share of vote to 2.7%, compared with the 1.8% in 2019.[6] CHEGA (CH), which faced legal disputes regarding their presence on the ballot due to annulments of internal party decisions and that were settled with a Constitutional Court ruling that confirmed that the party could be on the ballot,[7] had a very strong showing, winning almost 9% of the votes and electing 4 members to the regional parliament, a 8.5% growth compared with 2019.[8]
The Liberal Initiative (IL) won 2.6% of the votes and elected one seat. The regional leader, Nuno Morna said he was open to talks with the PSD/CDS–PP coalition.[9] Likewise, People-Animals-Nature (PAN), who won 2.2% of the votes and returned after 8 years to the regional parliament, was also open to supporting a PSD/CDS–PP government.[10] Left Bloc (BE) polled 2.2% and also returned to the Madeira Parliament after losing their seat in 2019.
Two days after the election, PAN and the PSD/CDS–PP signed a deal that ensured a majority in the regional Parliament.[11] PSD/CDS–PP accepted a series of PAN demands and Miguel Albuquerque said he was "very pleased" by the outcome of the deal.[12] Also, Albuquerque didn't rule out occasional agreements with the Liberal Initiative.[13]
The turnout in these elections decreased compared to the previous one, with 53.3% of voters casting a ballot, compared with the 55.5% in the 2019 elections.
Background
In the 2019 regional election, the PSD was again the most voted party, 39%, but failed for the first time to win an absolute majority.[14] The party was followed closely by the PS which polled at almost 36%. After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government which guaranteed an absolute majority in the regional parliament.[15]
In the aftermath of the 2021 local elections, in which the PS lost a lot of ground, especially the loss of Funchal to a PSD/CDS–PP coalition,[16] the then PS leader Paulo Cafôfo resigned from the leadership and refused to run again.[17] In the following PS leadership election, in February 2022, Sérgio Gonçalves was elected as the new leader with 98.6% of the votes.[18]
Electoral system
The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[19]
Parties
Current composition
The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.
Name | Ideology | Leader | 2019 result | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata |
Liberal conservatism | Miguel Albuquerque | 39.4% | 21 / 47 | |
PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista |
Social democracy | Sérgio Gonçalves | 35.8% | 19 / 47 | |
CDS-PP | CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular |
Conservatism | Rui Barreto | 5.8% | 3 / 47 | |
JPP | Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo |
Centrism | Élvio Sousa | 5.5% | 3 / 47 | |
PCP | Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português |
Communism | Edgar Silva | 1.8% [lower-alpha 3] |
1 / 47 |
Parties running in the election
13 parties/coalitions were on the ballot for the 2023 Madeira regional election. The parties/coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)[20]
- Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Quintino Costa
- Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa
- Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada[21]
- Socialist Party (PS), Sérgio Gonçalves
- Enough (CH), Miguel Castro[22]
- React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Roberto Vieira[23]
- Earth Party (MPT), Valter Rodrigues[24]
- National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita[25]
- Social Democratic Party/CDS – People's Party We are Madeira coalition (PSD/CDS–PP), Miguel Albuquerque
- People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas[26][27]
- LIVRE (L), Tiago Camacho[28]
- Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
- Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno Morna[29]
Campaign period
Party slogans
Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Refs | |
---|---|---|---|---|
PSD/CDS–PP | « Somos Madeira » | "We are Madeira" | [30] | |
PS | « O voto que muda a Madeira » | "The vote that changes Madeira" | [31] | |
JPP | « Em frente. Sem medo! » | "Forward. Without fear!" | [32] | |
CDU | « Viver melhor na nossa terra! » | "Live better in our land!" | [33] | |
BE | « O Bloco faz falta » | "The Bloc is needed" | [34] | |
PAN | « O voto que faz a diferença » | "The vote that makes the difference" | [35] | |
IL | « O liberalismo funciona. E faz falta à Madeira » | "Liberalism works. And Madeira needs it" | [36] | |
CH | « Vamos acabar com a corrupção na Madeira! » | "Let's end corruption in Madeira!" | [37] |
Election debates
Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present[lower-alpha 4] S Surrogate[lower-alpha 5] NI Not invited I Invited A Absent invitee | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSD/CDS | PS | JPP | CDU | BE | PAN | RIR | PTP | IL | CH | ADN | MPT | L | Ref. | |||
24 Aug | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Morna |
A | P Pita |
P Rodrigues |
P Camacho |
[38] |
31 Aug | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Almada |
P Freitas |
P Vieira |
P Costa |
NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | [39] |
7 Sep | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | P Albuquerque |
P Gonçalves |
P Sousa |
P Silva |
NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | [40] |
Opinion polls
Graphical summary
Polling
Polls that showed their results without distributing those respondents who were undecided or said they would abstain from voting, were re-calculated by removing those numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
Exit poll
Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | JPP | O | Lead | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 regional election | 24 Sep 2023 | — | 53.3 | 43.1 23 |
21.3 11 |
11.0 5 |
2.7 1 |
2.2 1 |
2.3 1 |
2.6 1 |
8.9 4 |
4.9 0 |
21.8 | |||
CESOP–UCP | 24 Sep 2023 | 8,021 | 52–56 | 44–48 23/26 |
18–21 9/12 |
9–12 4/6 |
2–3 1 |
2–3 1 |
1–3 0/1 |
2–4 1 |
8–10 3/5 |
26.5 | ||||
CESOP–UCP | 16–17 Sep 2023 | 1,613 | ? | 50.0 24/28 |
23.0 10/13 |
7.0 2/4 |
2.0 0/1 |
3.0 1/2 |
1.5 0/1 |
1.5 0/1 |
7.0 2/4 |
5.0 0 |
27.0 | |||
Intercampus[lower-alpha 6] | 29 Aug–13 Sep 2023 | 603 | ? | 49.0 26 |
22.8 12 |
9.5 5 |
1.7 0 |
1.7 0 |
1.0 0 |
3.0 1 |
6.8 3 |
4.5 0 |
26.2 | |||
Aximage[lower-alpha 7] | 28 Aug–10 Sep 2023 | 602 | ? | 58.4 30 |
15.5 8 |
8.4 4 |
3.2 1 |
1.7 0 |
1.9 0 |
4.5 2 |
4.5 2 |
1.9 0 |
42.9 | |||
Metris | 21–26 Aug 2023 | 402 | ? | 52.5 24/28 |
21.5 10/14 |
10.0 4/6 |
1.1 0/1 |
1.1 0/1 |
1.5 0/1 |
3.8 1/2 |
6.1 2/4 |
2.4 0 |
31.0 | |||
Aximage[lower-alpha 8] | 10–23 Jul 2023 | 611 | ? | 57.2 30 |
15.6 8 |
10.0 5 |
2.0 1 |
1.6 0 |
1.5 0 |
3.5 1 |
4.7 2 |
3.9 0 |
41.6 | |||
Aximage[lower-alpha 9] | 23 May–5 Jun 2023 | 604 | ? | 54.0 28 |
16.8 8 |
11.6 6 |
1.3 0 |
2.6 1 |
2.0 1 |
2.6 1 |
4.8 2 |
4.3 0 |
37.2 | |||
Intercampus[lower-alpha 10] | 15–24 May 2023 | 404 | ? | 44.9 23 |
28.5 14 |
7.9 4 |
1.7 0 |
1.0 0 |
2.1 1 |
4.7 2 |
6.2 3 |
3.0 0 |
16.4 | |||
Aximage[lower-alpha 11] | 14–24 Feb 2023 | 603 | ? | 55.0 29 |
16.8 8 |
13.8 7 |
1.9 1 |
1.4 0 |
0.9 0 |
3.2 1 |
3.6 1 |
3.4 0 |
38.2 | |||
Intercampus[lower-alpha 12][lower-alpha 13] | 20–30 Jan 2023 | 400 | ? | 45.2 | 29.5 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 15.7 | |||
44.7 | 1.7 | 30.2 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 14.5 | ||||||
Aximage[lower-alpha 14][lower-alpha 15] | 14–26 Oct 2022 | 601 | 58.4 | 54.0 | 26.6 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 27.4 | |||
51.5 | 5.2 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 26.4 | ||||||
Aximage | 30 Jul–5 Aug 2022 | 414 | 65.9 | 50.1 | 18.6 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 31.5 | |||
52.6 | 1.9 | 17.3 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 8.6 | 35.3 | ||||||
2022 legislative elections | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 49.6 | 39.8 | 31.5 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 8.3 | |||
2021 local elections | 26 Sep 2021 | — | 54.6 | 43.0 | 3.4 | 29.5 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | — | 1.2 | 2.5 | 8.4 | 13.5 | ||
Aximage | 5–8 Jun 2020 | 415 | ? | 42.2 | 2.3 | 27.5 | — | 2.1 | 2.1 | — | — | — | 23.8 | 14.7 | ||
2019 legislative election | 6 Oct 2019 | — | 50.3 | 37.2 | 6.1 | 33.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 3.8 | ||
2019 regional election | 22 Sep 2019 | — | 55.5 | 39.4 21 |
5.8 3 |
35.8 19 |
5.5 3 |
1.8 1 |
1.7 0 |
1.5 0 |
0.5 0 |
0.4 0 |
7.6 0 |
3.6 | ||
Voter turnout
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.
Turnout | Time | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | |||||||
2019 | 2023 | ± | 2019 | 2023 | ± | 2019 | 2023 | ± | |
Total | 20.97% | 20.98% | 0.01 pp | 40.79% | 39.90% | 0.89 pp | 55.51% | 53.35% | 2.16 pp |
Sources[41][42] |
Results
Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | MPs | MPs %/ votes % | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 2023 | ± | % | ± | ||||||
We are Madeira (PSD/CDS–PP) | 58,394 | 43.11 | 2.1 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 48.94 | 2.1 | 1.14 | |
Socialist | 28,840 | 21.29 | 14.5 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 23.40 | 17.0 | 1.10 | |
Together for the People | 14,933 | 11.03 | 5.6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10.63 | 4.2 | 0.96 | |
CHEGA | 12,029 | 8.88 | 8.5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8.51 | 8.5 | 0.96 | |
Unitary Democratic Coalition | 3,677 | 2.71 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.13 | 0.0 | 0.79 | |
Liberal Initiative | 3,555 | 2.62 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 0.81 | |
People-Animals-Nature | 3,046 | 2.25 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 0.95 | |
Left Bloc | 3,035 | 2.24 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.13 | 2.1 | 0.95 | |
Labour | 1,369 | 1.01 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
LIVRE | 858 | 0.63 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |
React, Include, Recycle | 727 | 0.54 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Earth | 696 | 0.51 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
National Democratic Alternative[lower-alpha 16] | 617 | 0.46 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Total valid | 131,776 | 97.29 | 0.4 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 100.00 | 0.0 | — | |
Blank ballots | 842 | 0.62 | 0.1 | |||||||
Invalid ballots | 2,828 | 2.09 | 0.3 | |||||||
Total | 135,446 | 100.00 | ||||||||
Registered voters/turnout | 253,877 | 53.35 | 2.2 | |||||||
Sources:[43] |
Maps
- Most voted political force by municipality.
Notes
- As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The leader of the Madeira People's Party (CDS–PP) is the Regional Secretary for Economic Affairs Rui Barreto.
- Sum of votes and seats of the PSD and the CDS–PP in the 2019 election. PSD: 39.4%, 21 seats; CDS–PP: 5.8%, 3 seats.
- The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2019 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 1.8% of the vote and elected 1 MP to parliament.
- Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
- Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (29.3%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 34.6%; PS: 16.1%; JPP: 6.7%; CHEGA: 4.8%; IL: 2.1%; BE: 1.2%; CDU: 1.2%; BE: PAN%; Others/Invalid: 3.2%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.5%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 52.9%; PS: 14.0%; JPP: 7.6%; CHEGA: 4.1%; IL: 4.1%; CDU: 2.9%; PAN: 1.7%; BE: 1.5%; Others/Invalid: 1.7%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.3%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 49.6%; PS: 13.5%; JPP: 8.7%; CHEGA: 4.1%; IL: 3.0%; CDU: 1.7%; BE: 1.4%; PAN: 1.3%; Others/Invalid: 3.4%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.1%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 46.9%; PS: 14.6%; JPP: 10.1%; CHEGA: 4.2%; BE: 2.3%; IL: 2.3%; PAN: 1.7%; CDU: 1.1%; Others/Invalid: 3.7%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (23.6%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 34.3%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 6.0%; CHEGA: 4.7%; IL: 3.6%; PAN: 1.6%; CDU: 1.3%; BE: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 3.0%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.0%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 50.0%; PS: 15.3%; JPP: 12.6%; CHEGA: 3.3%; IL: 2.9%; CDU: 1.7%; BE: 1.3%; PAN: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 3.1%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds + non voters (25.4% + 3.2%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 32.2%; PS: 21.0%; JPP: 6.0%; CHEGA: 4.8%; IL: 3.0%; BE: 1.5%; PAN: 1.2%; CDU: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 0.8%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds + non voters (24.0% + 3.8%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 32.2%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 6.0%; CHEGA: 4.5%; IL: 2.0%; BE: 2.0%; CDS-PP: 1.2%; CDU: 1.0%; PAN: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 0.8%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.9%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 44.3%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 7.7%; CHEGA: 2.2%; IL: 1.9%; CDU: 0.9%; BE: 0.7%; PAN: 0.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (16.0%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 43.3%; PS: 21.1%; JPP: 7.5%; CDS-PP: 4.4%; CHEGA: 2.2%; IL: 1.9%; CDU: 0.9%; BE: 0.7%; PAN: 0.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
- In September 2021, the Democratic Republican Party (PDR) changed its name to the National Democratic Alternative (ADN).
References
- "Eleições na Madeira marcadas para 24 de setembro ", Diário de Notícias, 4 July 2023. Retrieved 4 July 2023.
- "PSD e CDS juntos (de novo) na corrida à liderança do Governo da Madeira em 2023 ", Público, 22 July 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
- "Sem maioria absoluta, Albuquerque promete solução estável no Parlamento", Público, 24 September 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
- "Secretário-geral adjunto do PS admite que resultado "fica aquém do esperado"", Diário de Notícias da Madeira, 24 September 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
- "JPP assinala melhor resultado de sempre com cinco deputados", RTP, 24 September 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
- "Edgar Silva destaca que CDU não desapareceu na Madeira", Rádio Renascença, 24 September 2023. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
- https://expresso.pt/politica/partidos/2023-09-04-Constitucional-decidiu-Chega-pode-concorrer-as-regionais-da-Madeira-b90d384c "Constitucional decidiu: Chega pode concorrer às regionais da Madeira"], Expresso, 4 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
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- "Albuquerque admite que pode ter acordos pontuais com a IL", Diário de Notícias da Madeira, 26 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
- "Eleições históricas na Madeira. PSD perde maioria. PS mais do que triplica. Coligação de direita à vista", Diário de Notícias, 23 September 2019. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
- "Já há acordo para uma coligação PSD-CDS na Madeira", Observador, 1 October 2019. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
- "Resultado autárquicas. PSD recupera Funchal e líder do PS-M demite-se ", Público, 27 September 2023. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
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- Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
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- EMPT procura candidatos que acreditem "num futuro melhor" para a Madeira, Jornal da Madeira, 24 February 2023. Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- Miguel Pita candidato pelo ADN às eleições regionais, Jornal da Madeira, 19 July 2023. Retrieved 19 July 2023.
- "Últimos oito anos foram anos de entretenimento e não de discernimento", Diário de Notícias da Madeira, 1 July 2023. Retrieved 2 July 2023.
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- Tiago Camacho será cabeça-de-lista do LIVRE às Eleições Regionais, Diário de Notícias da Madeira, 4 July 2023. Retrieved 4 July 2023.
- Nuno Morna vai ser o cabeça-lista da IL nas eleições regionais na Madeira, Observador, 2 July 2023. Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- "PSD Madeira Facebook page". PSD Madeira (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- "PS Madeira Facebook page". PS Madeira (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- "Movimento Juntos pelo Povo Facebook page". JPP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- "CDU Madeira Facebook page". CDU (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- "BE Madeira Facebook page". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 28 July 2023.
- "PAN Madeira Facebook page". PAN (in Portuguese). Retrieved 23 August 2023.
- "Iniciativa Liberal Madeira Facebook page". Iniciativa Liberal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2 July 2023.
- "Miguel Castro Facebook page". Miguel Castro (in Portuguese). Retrieved 26 August 2023.
- "Eleições Regionais 2023 - Debates Ep. 1". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 24 August 2023. Retrieved 26 August 2023.
- "Eleições Regionais 2023 - Debates Ep. 2". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 24 August 2023. Retrieved 1 September 2023.
- "Eleições Regionais 2023 - Debates Ep. 3". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 7 September 2023. Retrieved 7 September 2023.
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- "Mapa Oficial n.º 1-A/2023, de 28 de setembro", Diário da República, 28 September 2023. Retrieved 28 September 2023.