Opinion polling for the 2024 Pakistani general election
In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.
National Assembly Voting intention
The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.
Nationwide
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PML(N) | PPP | MMA[lower-alpha 1] | TLP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Margin of error |
Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[lower-alpha 2] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | 21 October 2023 | Nawaz Sharif returns to Pakistan after 4 years of self-imposed exile[1] | |||||||||||
N/A | 10 August 2023 | The National Assembly is dissolved by President Arif Alvi on the advice of Shehbaz Sharif.[2] | |||||||||||
N/A | 5 August 2023 | Khan is arrested after an Islamabad trial court finds him guilty of "corrupt practices" and sentences him to three years in prison. He is technically disqualified from holding public office for five years.[3] | |||||||||||
Gallup Pakistan | 30 June 2023 | 48% | 23% | 14% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 25% | ±2.5% | 3,500 | 13% | ||
N/A | 9-12 May 2023 | Khan is arrested for his alleged role in the Al-Qadir Trust case, triggering protests, and is then released.[4][5] | |||||||||||
Iris Communications | 5 April 2023 | 45% | 22% | 13% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 23% | N/A | 3,000 | 12% | ||
2022 By-Elections | 16 October 2022 | 49.6% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 36.5% | N/A | 1,179,656 | 13,440 | ||
PA | 17 July 2022 | PTI wins Punjab provincial by-election | |||||||||||
IPOR (IRI) | 3 June 2022 | 39% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | ±2 - 3% | 2,003 | 25% | ||
NA | 11 April 2022 | Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister | |||||||||||
10 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | ||||||||||||
IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 35% | 33% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | ±2 - 3% | 3,509 | 16% | ||
Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 34% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 1% | ±3 - 5% | 5,688 | 33% | ||
IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 31% | 33% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 2% | ±2 - 3% | 3,769 | 11% | |
IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 36% | 38% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | ±3.22% | 2,003 | 32% | ||
IPOR (IRI) | 13 August 2020 | 33% | 38% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | ±2.95% | 2,024 | 26% | ||
IPOR (IRI) | 30 June 2020 | 24% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 33% | 3% | ±2.38% | 1,702 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
Gallup Pakistan | 24 June 2019 | 31% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 21% | 3% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,400 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | |||
IPOR (IRI) | 22 November 2018 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 16% | ±2.05% | 3,991 | 22% | |
NA | 17 August 2018 | Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister | |||||||||||
2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 31.8% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | N/A | 53,123,733 | N/A |
Punjab
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PML(N) | PPP | TLP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[lower-alpha 2] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gallup Pakistan | 30 June 2023 | 49% | 33% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 16% | N/A | 16% | ||
Iris Communications | 5 April 2023 | 51% | 35% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 16% | N/A | 11% | ||
PA | 14 January 2023 | The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called. | |||||||||
Oct 2022 By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 49.0% | 42.5% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 351,267 | 6,483 | |||
Jul 2022 By-elections | 17 July 2022 | [6] | 46.8% | 39.5% | 5.54% | 7.85% | 7.3% | 2,240,465 | 1.59 | ||
NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | |||||||||
IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 34% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 16% | 8% | ~1,900 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 35% | 43% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 8% | ~3,100 | 31% | |
IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 31% | 46% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 15% | 2,035 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 26% | 39% | 5% | 2% | 27% | 1% | 13% | 1,089 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | |
2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 33.6% | 31.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 18.8% | 1.9% | 33,218,101 | N/A |
Sindh
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PPP | MQM(P) | MMA | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[lower-alpha 2] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA | 11 August 2023 | The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Kamran Tessori on the advice of Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah.[7] | |||||||||
Gallup Pakistan | 30 June 2023 | 43.4% | 42.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 10.8% | 1.2% | N/A | 17% | ||
Iris Communications | 5 April 2023 | 29.5% | 34.1% | 10.2% | 26.1% | 4.6% | 3,000 | 12% | |||
Sindh By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 50.0% | 25.6% | 12.5% | 0.15 | 11.8% | 24.4% | 146,470 | 1,493 | ||
NA-245 By-election | 21 August 2022 | [8] | 48.85% | 21.87% | 23.51 | 5.77 | 26.98% | 60,760 | 0.70% | ||
NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | |||||||||
IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 17% | 44% | 5% | 34% | 27% | ~810 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | |||
Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 30% | 34% | 3% | 3% | 28% | 2% | 4% | ~1,300 | 39% | |
IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 13% | 44% | 7% | 36% | 31% | 867 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | |||
IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 13% | 22% | 1% | 3% | 61% | 9% | 467 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 14.5% | 38.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 25.9% | 7.4% | 23.6% | 10,025,437 | N/A |
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | MMA | ANP | PML(N) | PPP | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[lower-alpha 2] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gallup Pakistan | 30 June 2023 | 81.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 67.1% | N/A | 15% | ||
Iris Communications | 5 April 2023 | 58.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 48.3% | 3,000 | 11% | |||
PA | 18 January 2023 | The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called. | ||||||||||
KPK By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 53.3% | 41.9% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 445,604 | 6,994 | |||||
PK-7 By-election | 26 June 2022 | [9] | 52% | 44% | 2% | 8% | 33,573 | 2% | ||||
NA-33 By Election | 17 April 2022 | 48.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 6% | 43,148 | 537 | |||||
NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | ||||||||||
IPOR (IRI) | 21 March 2022 | 38% | 23% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 15% | ~600 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 44% | 13% | 6% | 21% | 8% | 7% | 1% | 23% | ~970 | 28% | |
IPOR (IRI) | 9 January 2022 | 44% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 27% | 641 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
IPOR (IRI) | 11 November 2020 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 26% | 21% | 331 | N/A[lower-alpha 3] | ||
2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 39.3% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 10.8% | 20.4% | 6,611,287 | N/A |
Balochistan
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | BNP | PTI | NP | BAP | MMA | Other | Ind. | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-voters[lower-alpha 2] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA | 12 August 2023 | The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Abdul Wali Kakar on the advice of Chief Minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo.[10] | ||||||||||
Iris Communications | 5 April 2023 | 21.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 35.8% | 5% | 3,000 | 19% | |||
2018 Elections | 25 July 2018 | ECP | 9.04% | 6.05% | 4.91% | 24.44% | 15.28 | 23.33% | 16.95% | 9.16% | 1,899,565 | 82,178 |
Government approval rating
The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister's overall performance since 18 August 2018.
The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.
Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Approve | Neutral | Disapprove | DK/NA | Strongly approve |
Approve | Neutral | Disapprove | Strongly disapprove |
DK/NA | Net | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gallup Pakistan | 21 February 2023 | 32% | N/A | 65% | 3% | 11% | 21% | N/A | 27% | 38% | 3% | -33% | ±3 - 5% | 1,760 | |
NA | 11 April 2022 | Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister | |||||||||||||
10 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | ||||||||||||||
Gallup Pakistan | 4 April 2022 | 46% | N/A | 54% | N/A | N/A | -8% | ±3 - 5% | ~800 | ||||||
Gallup Pakistan | 31 January 2022 | 36% | 14% | 48% | 3% | 15% | 21% | 14% | 18% | 30% | 3% | -12% | ±3 - 5% | 5,688 | |
Gallup Pakistan | 4 September 2021 | 48% | N/A | 45% | 7% | N/A | +3% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,200 | ||||||
Gallup Pakistan | 19 August 2020 | 38% | 30% | 31% | 2% | 22% | 16% | 30% | 13% | 18% | 2% | +7% | ±3 - 5% | 1,662 | |
IPOR (IRI) | 13 August 2020 | 38% | N/A | 54% | 7% | 16% | 22% | N/A | 17% | 37% | 7% | -16% | ±2.18% | 2,024 | |
Gallup Pakistan | 15 February 2020 | 32% | N/A | 66% | 1% | 8% | 24% | N/A | 19% | 47% | 1% | -34% | ±3 - 5% | 1,208 | |
Gallup Pakistan | 30 September 2019 | 45% | N/A | 53% | 2% | 15% | 32% | N/A | 16% | 37% | 2% | -8% | ±3 - 5% | 1,237 | |
Gallup Pakistan | 24 June 2019 | 45% | N/A | 53% | 2% | 21% | 24% | N/A | 32% | 21% | 2% | -8% | ±3 - 5% | ~1,400 | |
Gallup Pakistan | 29 December 2018 | 51% | N/A | 46% | 3% | 13% | 38% | N/A | 26% | 20% | 3% | +5% | ±2 - 3% | ~1,141 | |
IPOR (IRI) | 1 December 2018 | 47% | N/A | 27% | 26% | 17% | 30% | N/A | 18% | 9% | 26% | +20% | ±2.17% | 2,041 | |
Pulse Consultant | 28 November 2018 | HTML | 51% | N/A | 30% | 19% | N/A | +21% | ±2.07% | 2,019 | |||||
IPOR (IRI) | 22 November 2018 | 56% | N/A | 40% | 5% | 16% | 40% | N/A | 28% | 12% | 5% | +16% | ±2.05% | 3,991 |
Notes
- Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
- This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
- This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.
References
- Sadozai, Irfan (2023-10-21). "No wish for revenge, Nawaz says in homecoming Lahore power show". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-10-23.
- Khan, Sanaullah (2023-08-09). "Govt tenure comes to end as President Alvi signs off on NA dissolution". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-08-09.
- Burney, Umer; Gabol, Imran (2023-08-05). "Imran arrested after Islamabad court finds him guilty of 'corrupt practices' in Toshakhana case". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-08-05.
- Baloch, Shah Meer; Ellis-Petersen, Hannah (9 May 2023). "Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan arrested in Islamabad". The Guardian.
- Burney, Umer (2023-05-12). "Blanket relief: IHC bars Imran's arrest in cases across Pakistan till Monday". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-05-14.
- "2022 Punjab provincial by-election Result Dashboard- dunyanews.tv". Dunya News. Retrieved 2022-07-28.
- "Sindh Assembly bows out as Governor Tissori signs dissolution summary". Geo.tv. 2023-08-11. Retrieved 2023-08-11.
- "PTI wins NA-245 seat by huge margin". The Express Tribune. 2022-08-21. Retrieved 2022-08-23.
- "PK-7 By Election" (PDF). FAFEN.
- Zehri, Abdullah (2023-08-12). "Balochistan Assembly dissolved as governor approves CM Bizenjo's summary". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2023-08-12.